What do you mean by "production shock"?
Honestly, I probably call it a production shock because of how shocked I am at being unable to track production, lol.
Its just a term I made up because one of the things that out of sequence VIN's is associated with is preparing for a substantial change in the production routine. (it is also associated with end of quarter and might not have anything to do with production)
At the end of Q4 2012, VIN's went out of sequence (though the low volumes meant it wasn't a huge number of VIN's). There could have been many reasons for this, but we know that they began 60kWh production starting in Q1.
At the end of Q1 VIN's went out of sequence, and at the beginning of Q2 they began Multi-Coat Red production.
I have heard Elon mention VIN's going out of sequence when there are parts missing for a particular configuration. When that happens, they produce the batch (up to the point where they have to stop because of the missing part), then set those cars aside and start the next batch. When they get the parts they put the cars back in line and continue production.
So the way I see a "production shock" happening relies on the fact that Tesla (and any manufacturer) sources the materials and parts that go into production on a "just in time" basis. Those source streams are tied to batch planning and come in on the schedule dictated by the batch. Because the configuration in each car is unique to the customer, and because the batches are intended to be executed in a certain order, VIN assignment probably happens when the batch is created.
However, sometimes Tesla makes arbitrary decisions about production that are calendar/financial driven, that depart from the batch planning done months earlier. For instance, delaying 60kWh production until the start of a new quarter so that you don't get bogged down and can get out as many cars as possible. Same thing with Multi-Red. But the batches are scheduled and the VIN's assigned. If you don't produce the batch on schedule you will end up with out of sequence VIN's as the next batch moves ahead in line.
In the current case the "production shock" would be E.U. production. Initially Tesla planned on shipping cars to the E.U. starting in June. That was apparently delayed until Q3, so now they have all these parts for batches sitting around with VIN's assigned that Tesla doesn't want to turn into cars and deliver yet. So you set them aside and move forward.
That's my hypothesis anyways. Could be something completely unrelated, or maybe Tesla magically managed to produce 3,000 cars in June
