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Autodata estimates

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by ppl, Jul 3, 2013.

  1. ppl

    ppl Member

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    I can't find any of there data from 1st qtr to compare to actual sales. How accurate are they? I believe they go by registrations. Wonder if there is an issue with tesla being relatively new with them collecting data. Anyone out there know. The latest release puts sales aroun 4000 for the 2nd qtr (first 6 months minus the reported sales 1st qtr on report)

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    If we can find 1st qtr report of autodata could compare with 1st qtr actual to see how correct
     
  2. augkuo

    augkuo Member

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    You can check here - http://www.hybridcars.com/may-2013-dashboard/

    Change the month/year to what you'd like to see

     
  3. ppl

    ppl Member

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    wow thank you for the link. got following data:
    jan...1300
    feb...1500
    mar...1950
    total estimate 4750 compared to reality of 4900

    april...2100
    may....2000
    june.... not there yet

    clearly they were pretty close 1st qtr and clearly will estimate a lot more than 4000 2nd qtr. would love to see estimates of autodata for first qtr but cannot find them. i believe part of drop today was their release. i would recommend ignoring autodata data until we can check their track record
     
  4. augkuo

    augkuo Member

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    Yes that's why TSLA jumped up this past week, the original guidance Telsa gave was 5000 vehicles with 500 going to Europe so only 4500 sold in the states that
    would contribute to revenue. So with ~6000 now the analysts have increased the revenue estimates.

     
  5. CapitalistOppressor

    CapitalistOppressor Active Member

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    No, they were wildly off in the first quarter, and corrected their numbers after Elon did the prerelease of sales data at the end of March.

    The actual numbers that I tracked in real time were

    Jan:1,325
    Feb:1,700

    For March, there was a production shock where VIN's went out of sequence, but it was pretty obvious that Tesla was going to be 4,700+ for the quarter even before Elon announced anything.

    Here is what Hybrid Cars thought at the time (taken from my blog) -

    Here is my blog if you want to read the whole thing -

    http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/entry.php/75-Tesla-Model-S-The-1-quot-Large-Luxury-Car-quot-Brand-in-America

    The comments have info in them as well.

    Frankly, Hybrid Cars appears to simply be multiplying rumored production rates (which are wildly wrong) in order to come by their estimate. April was closer to 1,300, and May was closer to 1,700. And as was the case at the end of the last quarter, there was a substantial production shock that makes it hard to track VIN's, so June is uncertain, but Tesla likely will end up with 4,500-5,000 deliveries in Q2.

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    I have no idea. But if I recollect correctly, they estimated 1,425 sales in May, which is identical to their June estimate. Both estimates are much closer to reality than what Hybrid Cars is putting out, once you factor in the fact that Autodata is only covering the U.S., which puts Tesla's North American Sales (including Canada) much closer to the 1,700 or so we should expect based on their production rate.
     
  6. Jackl1956

    Jackl1956 Member

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    Google: Detroit Free Press Tesla Autodata
    It indicates 1425 for the month of June and 8931 YTD

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    The "Detroit Free Press" is owned by the "The Gannett Company" if you research their background you will find they definitely have an agenda. I'm not saying the report is inaccurate. Just saying they have an agenda.
     
  7. Jackl1956

    Jackl1956 Member

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    Hybridcars.com June Dashboard

    Hybrid Cars June Dashboard has reported Model S sales of 1800 for the month of June and 10,650 for the calendar year. Are we looking at 10,650-4900=5,750, based on reported Q1 sales, or are we looking at 10,650-4,750=5900 based on HybridCars.com Q1 estimate?
     
  8. ModelS8794

    ModelS8794 Member

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    What do you mean by "production shock"?
     
  9. Jackl1956

    Jackl1956 Member

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    The Autodata "Motor Intelligence" report singles out Tesla Motors from all other manufacturers as an estimate. The "estimated" sales volume at 1425 for the past two months. I can't wait to see actual numbers.
     
  10. CapitalistOppressor

    CapitalistOppressor Active Member

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    Honestly, I probably call it a production shock because of how shocked I am at being unable to track production, lol.

    Its just a term I made up because one of the things that out of sequence VIN's is associated with is preparing for a substantial change in the production routine. (it is also associated with end of quarter and might not have anything to do with production)

    At the end of Q4 2012, VIN's went out of sequence (though the low volumes meant it wasn't a huge number of VIN's). There could have been many reasons for this, but we know that they began 60kWh production starting in Q1.

    At the end of Q1 VIN's went out of sequence, and at the beginning of Q2 they began Multi-Coat Red production.

    I have heard Elon mention VIN's going out of sequence when there are parts missing for a particular configuration. When that happens, they produce the batch (up to the point where they have to stop because of the missing part), then set those cars aside and start the next batch. When they get the parts they put the cars back in line and continue production.

    So the way I see a "production shock" happening relies on the fact that Tesla (and any manufacturer) sources the materials and parts that go into production on a "just in time" basis. Those source streams are tied to batch planning and come in on the schedule dictated by the batch. Because the configuration in each car is unique to the customer, and because the batches are intended to be executed in a certain order, VIN assignment probably happens when the batch is created.

    However, sometimes Tesla makes arbitrary decisions about production that are calendar/financial driven, that depart from the batch planning done months earlier. For instance, delaying 60kWh production until the start of a new quarter so that you don't get bogged down and can get out as many cars as possible. Same thing with Multi-Red. But the batches are scheduled and the VIN's assigned. If you don't produce the batch on schedule you will end up with out of sequence VIN's as the next batch moves ahead in line.

    In the current case the "production shock" would be E.U. production. Initially Tesla planned on shipping cars to the E.U. starting in June. That was apparently delayed until Q3, so now they have all these parts for batches sitting around with VIN's assigned that Tesla doesn't want to turn into cars and deliver yet. So you set them aside and move forward.

    That's my hypothesis anyways. Could be something completely unrelated, or maybe Tesla magically managed to produce 3,000 cars in June :)
     
  11. MikeC

    MikeC Active Member

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    Europe shipments and the DOE loan were two things that were supposed to cause a Q2 loss. If they are both no longer factors, it looks to me like there is a pretty good chance they could eke out a profit. Right?
     
  12. CapitalistOppressor

    CapitalistOppressor Active Member

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    To me it seems very likely, though I haven't done a full analysis yet.
     
  13. kenliles

    kenliles Active Member

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    #13 kenliles, Jul 6, 2013
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2013
    That's about what I'm expecting too. The projected loss was coming primarily from: reduction of EV credits-income, Euro-production, DOE payment. Euro-production may or may not still be a factor.
    If they make a profit it will temper the stock effect, but the stock is priced now imo for a full on growth company. A small profit charts to a shrinking company Q-Q and that will be a very difficult sell to overcome at current valuation. That performance would easily cut it for the old TSLA at $30-$40/share, not any more.
    [Not saying the pullback would be huge either, but perhaps return to $90s support levels. Remember Q3 will also be a challenge. I think we are in a trading range until the next milestones of GM 25% and ModelX adders become more acute Q4ish- maybe sept-oct]
     

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