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Discussion in 'Autopilot & Autonomous/FSD' started by Daniel in SD, Jan 1, 2020.
Sorry, you know I had to do it.
Another year of missed timelines
Not sure what timeline was missed? My Tesla responds to since month showing me an alert if it thinks I’m running a red light. Stop signs are a new feature which were just added before year end. Also automatic driving in cities is working as long as you follow the instructions and step in before you run a stop sign or red light or miss a turn ;-)
Thats not automatic driving
It says later this year. This is only January 1. You should have posted that yesterday when "this year" only had a day left.
Exactly, Where did it say "End of 2019" when we paid for FSD.
Just to refresh we are still waiting for coast to coast self driving demo.
I never got that feature and I paid for the FSD lot before than you.
Since the car is seeing everything at the same time, what would be more useful would be to implement Evasive Maneuver" mode.
4 killed, including child, in fiery 7-vehicle crash
if depends on what your definition of "this" is.
Is "later this year" meant to be 3 months likely, 6 months definitely?
I think the misunderstanding revolves around the word "this".
When they first said "this year" it was 2019. But the OP posted in 2020. Tesla failed to keep its promise. But the post didn't make that point because it was posted one day too late.
In 2018 when I bought my car Tesla said that if I paid for FSD my car would be capable of operating as a robotaxi once the software was completed and got regulatory approval. I didn't believe that my car would ever be capable of robotaxi operation given its hardware and the fact that cars have limited life. So I didn't pay for FSD and I still believe what I did then.
Since then, Tesla has tacitly admitted what I believed and still believe, as it's no longer promising that FSD = robotaxi-capable. Now Tesla's idea of FSD seems to be NoA in the city at Level 2 operation. We are all speculating about Level 3 but I don't think Tesla is talking about that any more. Musk now talks about "feature complete" which seems to mean that all the features are in the software but are not able to operate without constant driver supervision.
Tesla has moved the goal posts. They should admit they cannot provide what they promised. But at least they are no longer making that same promise now.
Not "any more". I don't think Tesla ever talked about L3 autonomy.
Tesla is going to have to walk before they can run. They can't make level 4 before level 3. And to be more precise they will have to be at Level 3-- before they can reach level 3 or level 3+. Waymo can, by just not releasing a product, but we know Tesla won't do this. Level 3-- will come when they decrease the nag. Nag is currently based on every half mile? So nag time can be several minutes in stop and go traffic.
When will you feel they have reached level 3--? When nag is every 10 minutes?
I think you misunderstand what a Level 3 system is. It has nothing to do with nags. With a Level 3 system the car is responsible for driving but can notify someone in the driver's seat that they need to take over. The practical amount of time for a driver to regain situational awareness is probably 10 seconds. A more advanced Level 3 system would simply work in more places and under more driving conditions.
There is really no middle ground between Level 2 and Level 3-5 since in a Level 2 system the driver is responsible for driving and in a Level 3-5 system the car is responsible for driving.
"nags" are not an indication of how much you should be paying attention! You should always be vigilant when using a Level 2 system.
Tesla will find a middle ground, because the leap is too big. I'm suggesting the middle ground will be a decrease in nags. What would you call a system that works very well and only nags you every 10 minutes? I'm suggesting we name this system Level 3--.
Another alternative between Level 2 and Level 3 is that Tesla asks you to sign a liability waiver. Would you consider that Level 3--?
I would call that system a Level 2 system! What you're proposing makes no sense to me. What percentage of the time would the driver have to be vigilant in this Level 3-- system?
There are two sides to that coin. The system works very well, so maybe not that much. But since you are liable, you can take as much risk as you dare or take no risk and be constantly vigilant.
Think about the math on that. Let's say an average human gets into an accident every 500,000 miles, this Level 3-- system gets into an accident every 100,000 miles on it's own, and when used by a vigilant human you'll go 1,000,000 miles between accidents with the system on. To achieve the same safety as a human driver you would need to be paying attention 89% of the time.