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Autonomous Car Progress

Discussion in 'Autopilot & Autonomous/FSD' started by stopcrazypp, Oct 4, 2017.

  1. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

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    Sorry but this is false. Elon has said that that FSD Beta testers have the same cutting edge FSD software that he has in his car. So, there is no "real FSD" that Tesla is withholding from beta testers. FSD Beta is the "real FSD". Tesla has already rolled out the "real FSD" to beta testers. FSD Beta is the best that Tesla has.
     
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  2. Cheburashka

    Cheburashka Active Member

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    Haha. If anything can be guaranteed it's that Tesla will roll out half baked software as soon as possible and then fix it at some point later.

    Btw, current Autopilot and EAP is still in beta.
     
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  3. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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    #3643 stopcrazypp, Feb 8, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2021
    That's not how I read his comment. I think his point is FSD Beta is being rolled out in a very limited scale even to beta testers (Elon mentioned "nearly 1,000" as of the recent earnings call, which is well under the amount of Early Access Program participants out there). Not that there is a different internal FSD version than what is being rolled out right now.
     
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  4. daniel

    daniel Active Member

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    I, for one expect the development toward FSD to proceed by quantum leaps.

    Note that a quantum leap is literally the smallest change possible within the laws of physics. A quantum leap is a change equal to Planck's constant, or 6.62607015 × 10^−34 joule second. Of course we're using this as a metaphor since technological advances aren't measures in joule seconds. But the point is that a quantum leap is the smallest change you can possibly expect in a system.

    We will reach FSD through a very large number of almost-imperceptible quantum leaps.

    I use EAP on the highway. On the highway it is extremely rare for the unexpected to happen suddenly. Generally I can see well in advance when something is abnormal up ahead and I disengage it. But in the city, the unexpected happens suddenly. A child runs out onto the street and you have a split second to brake. You could wait and see if the car will do it, but at Level 2 the driver is responsible, so you don't wait to see what the car will do. For me, there's no advantage in such a system.

    For this reason, when Tesla releases its so-called "FSD" package to all the FSD buyers, I will not call that FSD, It's not FSD until it's Level 4 and does not require anybody in the driver's seat. Perhaps Musk will declare "FSD is here" when the Level 2 beta gets wide release. And maybe he'll do that this year. But that ain't full self-driving. Naming your pet skunk "Rose" won't make it smell any better.
     
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  5. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

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    Ok. But his statement still does not make sense. If FSD is "in the bag" why would Tesla be reluctant to roll out to all early access beta testers?
     
  6. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

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    Yes, in Physics, quantum refers to the very small. But in standard English, the term "quantum leap" refers to a big change.

    quantum leap

    noun
    1. a huge, often sudden, increase or advance in something.
      "there has been a quantum leap in the quality of wines marketed in the UK
    In the context of Elon saying that the 4D rewrite will be a "quantum leap", it makes more sense that "quantum leap" refers to a sudden big change, not a tiny change.
     
  7. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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    Being confident they would eventually be able to roll it out does not conflict with rolling it out in a limited scale at this stage. After all, as relevant to this thread, all L4/L5 efforts are being tested in very limited scale (most much more limited than FSD beta).

    And as a side note it's not quite clear how they are testing FSD beta. Is it as a L2/L3 feature? Or is it as a L4/L5 feature? If L4/L5, Tesla may need to pay a fee for each participant and have other paperwork they need to do for them.
     
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  8. Knightshade

    Knightshade Well-Known Member

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    It seems like the team fixed all the low hanging fruit and now they're stuck with actual hard problems.



    AFAIK Tesla has never tested an L4 or L5 car on a public road anywhere (or anything higher than L2 on a customer vehicle).

    The FSD beta is entirely operating as an L2 feature.

    The only even L3 testing I'm aware of was for the autonomy day demo video.... (and the largely faked 2016 video that took like 50 takes to splice together enough footage for one video)
     
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  9. Ludalicious

    Ludalicious Active Member

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    Just checking in.... Yup nothings changed. Just some randoms who chime in that FSD is just around the corner.
     
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  10. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

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    Yes it is clear. FSD Beta is being tested as L2. I say this because FSD Beta testers are required to keep their hands on wheel, monitor the road and performance of the system and intervene at any time to perform any driving tasks that FSD Beta can't do. That's L2.

    So you know that I am not making anything up, this is what the SAE says about the driver for L2 (page 21):

    Driver (at all times):
    •Performs the remainder of the DDT not performed by the driving automation system
    •Supervises the driving automation system and intervenes as necessary to maintain safe operation of the vehicle
    •Determines whether/when engagement and disengagement of the driving automation system is appropriate
    •Immediately performs the entire DDT whenever required or desired

    I think that fits what we see with FSD Beta.

    And this is how the SAE describes the "driver" for L4 (page 22):

    Passenger/dispatcher (while the ADS is engaged):
    • Need not perform the DDT or DDT fallback
    • Need not determine whether and how to achieve a minimal risk condition
    • May perform the DDT fallback following a request to intervene
    • May request that the ADS disengage and may achieve a minimal risk condition after it is disengaged
    • May become the driver after a requested disengagement

    I don't think FSD Beta fits this description. AFAIK, Tesla has never tested L4/L5.

    During autonomy day, Tesla did demo L3 on a 12 mile route per their paperwork they submitted to regulators.
     
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  11. daniel

    daniel Active Member

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    Be fair!: There are some randos who chime in that FSD is just around the corner and there are other randos who chime in that it's not. :) (Which is to say it's a pretty normal thread for an internet chat board.)
     
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  12. boonedocks

    boonedocks Active Member

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    Yeah...but it's not. :D
     
  13. mark95476

    mark95476 Member

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    Also: Tesla has lost. Others have won.

    (Generally based on strawman arguments)

     
  14. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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    #3654 stopcrazypp, Feb 9, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2021
    Sure there's the SAE description, but I'm talking about legally. Uber tried to claim the testing they were doing was L2 also based on exactly your argument (test driver expected to take over at any moment) and that they didn't need any autonomous vehicle licensing. CA regulators did not buy argument. Not sure if the same thing is happening behind the scenes here.

    Uber is stubbornly refusing to apply for a $150 permit for its self-driving cars

    Edit: I googled and saw that the 2020 disengagement reports are out and Tesla did not report any autonomous vehicle testing (didn't realize they were out already). Given there have been videos shown last year of FSD beta in California (even before December 2020 which the reports wouldn't cover), presumably at least for the earlier testing it wasn't being treated as a L4/L5 system.
    Disengagement Reports - California DMV

    Presuming this continues and doesn't change in the near term, then perhaps this is as the precursor to Autosteer in city streets (not the full system where no driver attention required).
     
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  15. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

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    CA DMV released the 2020 autonomous report:

    Disengagement Reports - California DMV

    You can download the miles report and the disengagement report.

    Tesla reported zero autonomous miles to the CA DMV in 2020.

    I made a table showing total autonomous miles, total disengagements, and miles per disengagement:

    [​IMG]

    Interestingly, despite showing the best results in the report, Waymo put out a lengthy thread on Twitter downplaying the CA DMV report, stating that it does not paint a full picture of the Waymo Driver's true FSD capabilities.

    https://twitter.com/Waymo/status/1359214350502920197
     
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  16. daniel

    daniel Active Member

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    Confirming what you and I and others have pointed out: Tesla is not testing any autonomous vehicles. Tesla is testing a Level 2 City NAV on AP system. This is, or could be, a step on the road toward a self-driving car. But so far Tesla does not appear to have an autonomous car to test.

    But to be fair, no other company is yet commercializing an autonomous car. Some are running autonomous taxis at a loss as a step in their testing process, but nobody is offering an autonomous car for sale to the public and nobody is offering a self-driving system to car makers that they could install in consumer or commercial fleet cars.

    Also, the above does not mean that Tesla is behind: Tesla is following a totally different strategy. It's too early for anybody to know which approach will get to a self-driving consumer car first, and anybody who thinks they know is just guessing. I'm rooting for Tesla because I like their cars best so I want my first self-driving car to be a Tesla. But I'm not deluded enough to think that I can accurately predict who will be the first to offer to sell me a car that will take me where I want to go while I sleep in the back.
     
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  17. Microterf

    Microterf Member

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    I really want to see a Waymo demo in a non mapped area, or maybe map it quickly. I love watching the Waymo robotaxi videos from JJRicks, but we have no idea if they will have a scaling problem until we can see what it can actually do.

    If there are any videos like that, please point me in the right direction.
     
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  18. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

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    Waymo will map first since that is part of their FSD solution. But I agree with you that would be great to see some videos of autonomous drives in other cities.

    I especially want to see some videos in the i-Pace with the newest 5th Gen FSD since that is Waymo's best FSD, and the FSD that they plan to scale up with.

    I will definitely share videos when I find them.
     
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  19. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

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    I wanted to add that Waymo's disengagement rate was about 1 per 13,000 miles in 2019. It is almost 1 per 30,000 miles in 2020. That is more than a 2x improvement. So it looks like Waymo has made significant improvement in their FSD over the past year.
     
  20. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

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