I think we will have L5 relatively soon, but it won't be based on strong AI. It will be more like what Waymo does with algorithms doing most of the work.
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Autonomous Car Progress
- Thread starter stopcrazypp
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I think we will have L5 relatively soon, but it won't be based on strong AI. It will be more like what Waymo does with algorithms doing most of the work.
zmarty
Member
Will go out on a limb here and say that unassisted Level 5 will not happen in the next 5 years. Waymo is at most Level 4.
I don't think we even have a tiny grip on the legal and regulatory issues. True L5... the unrestricted "take me here"... not a chance. You might have growing pockets of L5 available before that, where the vehicle can operate L5 on a set of restricted access, well surveyed roads that are limited to properly equipped vehicles.
But to operate in a typical urban setting with pedestrians all over the place, construction and who knows what else going on? I don't see it. It's one of those situations where we will get to 99% quickly. But getting to 99.999 - which is required for true L5 - will be a really tough slog.
fallen888
Participant
Sorry to sound negative here, but "progress"? Seems like we've gone backwards with our lovely Teslas - hold the wheel nags every 15 - 20 seconds at highway speeds. A few bad apples ruined it for the rest of us. Sucks.
Honda commits $2.75 billion to build autonomous vehicles with GM’s Cruise
Ford calls for industry standard signal for self-driving vehicle intent has a pointer to Seeing the Light: Our Call for a Standard Self-Driving Car Language to Communicate Intent.
When Nissan showed the IDS Concept in late 2015, it also included a display and lights to show intent/give others around it cues. Skip to ~2:25 of
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Ford calls for industry standard signal for self-driving vehicle intent has a pointer to Seeing the Light: Our Call for a Standard Self-Driving Car Language to Communicate Intent.
When Nissan showed the IDS Concept in late 2015, it also included a display and lights to show intent/give others around it cues. Skip to ~2:25 of
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Cirrus MS100D
Member
Yeah, this is really something that I think is woefully behind and not being considered enough (unless it's all happening behind the scenes or isn't easily accessibly via public information...)
AV folks need to get a consortium together and come to an agreement about V2V communication standards, working with various DOTS on signage/road maintenance/striping, etc. before it becomes a free-for-all with competing "standards" (cue the XKCD on standards)
That'll lay the groundwork when there are only AVs cruising around, but then they can work backwards and discuss how they're going to (more) reliably integrate AVs when they're a small, but growing subset of vehicles that have to interact with non-AVs.
AV folks need to get a consortium together and come to an agreement about V2V communication standards, working with various DOTS on signage/road maintenance/striping, etc. before it becomes a free-for-all with competing "standards" (cue the XKCD on standards)
That'll lay the groundwork when there are only AVs cruising around, but then they can work backwards and discuss how they're going to (more) reliably integrate AVs when they're a small, but growing subset of vehicles that have to interact with non-AVs.
voyager
Active Member
lunitiks
Cool James & Black Teacher
Waymo’s autonomous cars drove 10 million miles?
Waymo’s driverless cars drove 10 million miles
They went 10 million miles those Waymo FSD cars
voyager
Active Member
Yesterday I heard somebody comment upon hearing that the Chinese are tinkering with human DNA:
Now even man is "Made in China".
Existentialist question as far as 'driverless' concerned:
Now even man is "Made in China".
Existentialist question as far as 'driverless' concerned:
Reciprocity
Active Member
Progress in AI can be exponential, and if that is the case (and given that humans are useless at guesstimating exponential growth) it will be "sooner than you think"
Or much later than you think, because people suck at guesstimating exponential growth.
If an ancestor of you put 5 dollar at a 3% interest on a bank account at the Bank of New York, back in June 9th 1784 when the bank first opened. And you‘d it find out by accident, you‘d be pretty disappointed that you‘d only have $5050 on that bank account, despite 234 years of exponential growth.
Except technology evolution started thousands of years ago. In 1820 we invented electricity. In 1890 we invented the first electric car. Airplanes in 1900. Jet engine around 1941. First computers that could fit within reasonable space around 1960. Atari games around 1980. Internet in 1990. Facebook and first public video streaming service YouTube in 2005. Smartphone in 2008. Computer generated low-res pics using neural networks in 2014. Photo-realistic text-2-image computer generated images in 2018.
It's more like we deposited 3$ back in year -2000, but we are now starting to get in the steep end of the exponential curve.
Took 60 years to get from first room-sized computers to Atari. Took 30 years from Atari to Samsung Galaxy Note 9.
strangecosmos
Non-Member
If something doubles every 10 trillion years, technically that is exponential growth. Increasing 0.01% per year is exponential growth. I think colloquially the term means something like doubling every 5 years or faster. At least that tends to be how people use it.
I have seen the future....and it is still populated by a few people striving with all their might to make the world a better place....and a ton of "critics" and analyst explaining why those people are wrong.
There is no steep end... it just depends on where you are right now. Growth 1000 steps ahead is always way more, than 1000 steps before.
If we deposited $3 at 3% in 2000 BC we would have 6.7 x 10^ 51 and 10 years later we would still only have 9 x 10 ^ 51.
And to get back to my original deposit example, $5 for 234 years at 1.05% would be $454,000. That’s why I say we are bad at exponential growth. It can be 5k, or almost 500k, if you expect 5k and get 450k you will be surprised, but also the other way around.
Ford is the first company to test self-driving cars in Washington, DC
Addison Lee's self-driving taxis could hit London by 2021 - maybe their partner Oxbotica is another name to watch? Hadn't heard of them until now.
Addison Lee's self-driving taxis could hit London by 2021 - maybe their partner Oxbotica is another name to watch? Hadn't heard of them until now.
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