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Autonomous Car Progress

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This might be interesting. I'll be curious to hear what the panel says about AV safety and if they mention any specific metrics.

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It really makes me wonder what all of these robotaxi companies are doing and if they're really serious. Right now, it looks like they need to show something, even if it's plainly ridiculous.

You need to use the full quote...
It continues...

At the launch, a Baidu representative said "at least it's not in the desert" and walked away without answering why the need to limit the service to such a small area!
/sarc
 
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It really makes me wonder what all of these robotaxi companies are doing and if they're really serious. Right now, it looks like they need to show something, even if it's plainly ridiculous.
Tesla has 71 non-employee testers for "City Streets Beta" which is only an L2 system.
To me, those 71 testers are the same as a very small geofence, but with the added issue that they aren't even trying to demonstrate L3+, so even when they do expand they still have L3 and L4 to repeat the process with. The "need to show something" seems to apply to Tesla just as much (especially as they have claimed they will be a leader in robotaxis)

It's clear that useful L4 autonomy (from Tesla or anyone else) is very far away.
 
It really makes me wonder what all of these robotaxi companies are doing and if they're really serious. Right now, it looks like they need to show something, even if it's plainly ridiculous.

These robotaxi companies have real autonomous driving and are deploying real robotaxis. Yes, they are serious.

Tesla has promised 1M robotaxis and yet has deployed ZERO robotaxis so far! If anyone needs to prove that they are really serious about robotaxis, it's Tesla.
 
Both Waymo and Cruise have applied for permits to start charging for autonomous ride-hailing rides in CA, hinting that they plan to expand autonomous ride-hailing to the public in CA soon:

 
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These robotaxi companies have real autonomous driving and are deploying real robotaxis. Yes, they are serious.

Tesla has promised 1M robotaxis and yet has deployed ZERO robotaxis so far! If anyone needs to prove that they are really serious about robotaxis, it's Tesla.
Don't say that! Believers will ignore anything factual and instead fist fight you over the meaning of the word 'promise'.
 
I think the better fight is over "1M robotaxis." Maybe someone slipped up somewhere, but mostly wasn't the statement something like "1M vehicles with the hardware required to be robotaxis"?

Musk said "all the hardware necessary" in October 2016. By February 2019 he said: ""I think we will be feature complete -- full self-driving -- this year...Meaning the car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up and take you all the way to your destination without an intervention, this year. I would say I am of certain of that. That is not a question mark."

In April 2019 he described an operational service, not just necessary h/w.: "I feel very confident predicting 1 million autonomous robo-taxis for Tesla next year... Expect this to operate sort of like a combination of the Uber and the Airbnb model."

Also in April 2019: "By the middle of next year, we'll have over 1 million Tesla cars in the road will full Self-Driving hardware, future complete at a reliability level that we will consider that no one needs to pay attention. Meaning you could go to sleep in your car."

Around that time he also said they'd have operational Robotaxis in some jurisdictions during 2020, but I'm not going to chase down that exact quote.
 
I cannot wait to see their work of art re geo-fence.

We need a name for what it is when you only give your product to Youtube influencers instead of only users in a specific geographic region.
Instafence? Tubefence? Influafence? Douchefence?

Speaking of that, are we sure Tesla's city streets beta doesn't have any geofences? Seems like something they could easily be hiding with so few hand picked testers under NDA's.
 
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Musk said "all the hardware necessary" in October 2016. By February 2019 he said: ""I think we will be feature complete -- full self-driving -- this year...Meaning the car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up and take you all the way to your destination without an intervention, this year. I would say I am of certain of that. That is not a question mark."

In April 2019 he described an operational service, not just necessary h/w.: "I feel very confident predicting 1 million autonomous robo-taxis for Tesla next year... Expect this to operate sort of like a combination of the Uber and the Airbnb model."

Also in April 2019: "By the middle of next year, we'll have over 1 million Tesla cars in the road will full Self-Driving hardware, future complete at a reliability level that we will consider that no one needs to pay attention. Meaning you could go to sleep in your car."

Around that time he also said they'd have operational Robotaxis in some jurisdictions during 2020, but I'm not going to chase down that exact quote.
Previously, the discussion was about promises vs reality, and you can't sue him for his optimistic statements. This is different. These are clear on the record statements to owners and investors. There are no *regulators and software validation* garbage. He is in a corner now. Deliver or get whacked
 
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Previously, the discussion was about promises vs reality, and you can't sue him for his optimistic statements. This is different. These are clear on the record statements to owners and investors. There are no *regulators and software validation* garbage. He is in a corner now. Deliver or get whacked
Elon has said a bunch of forward looking statements that came and went. Investors can sue him if they want, but generally SEC doesn't really step in unless it very clearly directly impacts the stock price (such as the $420 comment).

Also those quotes completely strip out a lot of context and cautionary statements (including the "regulators" you mentioned). I won't bother digging through sources that don't have text transcripts (the first one seems to be from podcast without a transcript), but just a quick google found the second quote had the following:
"I feel very confident predicting 1 million autonomous robo-taxis for Tesla next year," Musk told a room of investors and Wall Street analysts at the company's Palo Alto, California, headquarters. "Not in all jurisdictions because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere, but I'm confident we will have regulatory approval at least somewhere, literally next year. "
Elon Musk says Tesla will have 1 million robo-taxis on the road next year, and some people think the claim is so unrealistic that he's being compared to PT Barnum
The second quote was also from the same Autonomy Day event, where there definitely was heavy caveating about regulators and huge uncertainty in the timelines. From a quick glance through, Elon talks about 3 steps: "There’s 3 steps to self-driving: there’s feature complete, then there’s feature complete to the degree that … where we think that the person in the car does not need to pay attention, then there’s at a reliability level where we also convince regulators that that is true."

To put that in SAE terms, "feature complete" sounds like L2, just L2 in all areas (AKA finishing "City Streets"). The 2nd step sounds like L3, where the driver does not need to pay attention. Third step is L4/L5 (or at minimum a L3 that a regulator would certify for public use, kind of like Honda's system).

As for owners, whatever thing Elon says to the media or other gatherings doesn't necessarily constitute a contract to deliver in the cars. What ultimately governs that is what Tesla's website said at the time of order and what is in the order agreement. For example, Elon has said in various places Tesla would deliver L5 (whatever definition he is using), but nowhere in the Tesla order page did Tesla promise L5 (at most, the earlier order page suggested a L4 car; later this was changed to even less, only the "City Streets" feature).
 
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The prospect of this must scare the robotaxi companies to death. If Elon is telling the truth then they're practically all dead. Any delays from Tesla is giving robotaxi companies a reprieve from the almost inevitable.

Robotaxi company:
- Spend $ to buy vehicle, spend $ to outfit vehicle, spend $ to maintain vehicle, ...etc... Hopefully make profit in years, but more likely never.
- Has few operating taxis.

Tesla:
- Customers pay $ to buy vehicle, customers pay $ to buy FSD option, customer pay $ to maintain vehicle, ...etc... Tesla already profited before first robotaxi ride.
- ~1M already on the road. Own multiple factories and intends to build ~750,000 "robotaxi capable" vehicles in 2021.

The fundamentals and economics are diametrically opposite. There's no way any Robotaxi company, even OEM GM/Cruise, will be able to ramp faster than Tesla.

I think the better fight is over "1M robotaxis." Maybe someone slipped up somewhere, but mostly wasn't the statement something like "1M vehicles with the hardware required to be robotaxis"?
 
As for owners, whatever thing Elon says to the media or other gatherings doesn't necessarily constitute a contract to deliver in the cars. What ultimately governs that is what Tesla's website said at the time of order and what is in the order agreement.
Tesla flied this with the SEC in 2013:
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Are you saying that only applies to investors?

(including the "regulators" you mentioned).
There is zero evidence that Tesla has applied to any regulator anywhere for approval of an L3+ system (or even L2). They can't use this as an excuse when they have failed to get to a level where they themselves are willing to present it as L3+ capable. In the USA the general question is "what regulator?" and "what laws"? They are out testing "city streets beta" without having involved a regulator in any way, which when probed by a possible regulator, they answered with "this has such minimal functionality that it does not fall into an area that is regulated".
I'll start buying the regulator issue when they actually apply to one and are denied.
 
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There's no way any Robotaxi company, even OEM GM/Cruise, will be able to ramp faster than Tesla.
Sure there is.
GM/Cruise get L4 autonomy working in 2022, and start building cars in 2023. GM builds 7M cars per year today. They build 1M cars in 2023 and bump their production by 18%.
Tesla solves autonomy in 2023 and needs new hardware to do it so no existing car is relevant. They start building cars in 2024 and ramp production 300%. Whoops. Too late.
 
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The prospect of this must scare the robotaxi companies to death. If Elon is telling the truth then they're practically all dead. Any delays from Tesla is giving robotaxi companies a reprieve from the almost inevitable.

Robotaxi company:
- Spend $ to buy vehicle, spend $ to outfit vehicle, spend $ to maintain vehicle, ...etc... Hopefully make profit in years, but more likely never.
- Has few operating taxis.

Tesla:
- Customers pay $ to buy vehicle, customers pay $ to buy FSD option, customer pay $ to maintain vehicle, ...etc... Tesla already profited before first robotaxi ride.
- ~1M already on the road. Own multiple factories and intends to build ~750,000 "robotaxi capable" vehicles in 2021.

The fundamentals and economics are diametrically opposite. There's no way any Robotaxi company, even OEM GM/Cruise, will be able to ramp faster than Tesla.

Sure, that is the argument that Tesla is making. But the opposite is also true. If Elon is not telling the truth and our Teslas are not capable of being robotaxis, then the robotaxi companies have nothing to worry about. If Elon is not telling the truth, then Tesla is no threat to the robotaxi companies and Tesla has no chance of beating the robotaxi companies.

So far, there is no evidence that our Teslas are capable of being robotaxis. Right now, Tesla is still at L2 with camera vision that is a work in progress, and with a very poor disengagement rate. So right now, the robotaxis companies have nothing to worry about IMO. They should only be afraid if Tesla actually does achieve L4.
 
So far, there is no evidence that our Teslas are capable of being robotaxis. Right now, Tesla is still at L2 with camera vision that is a work in progress, and with a very poor disengagement rate.
Even with Tesla's L2 FSD Beta, I have seen the FSD Beta handle more scenarios in the real world than a Waymo car!
Because for all intents and purposes, Waymo has proven that they will route their cars remotely and based on the latest video from JJ that they try to avoid all/most construction zones.
That is not autonomy, that is sandbox upon a sandbox in the desert, with training wheels.
 
Even with Tesla's L2 FSD Beta, I have seen the FSD Beta handle more scenarios in the real world than a Waymo car!
Because for all intents and purposes, Waymo has proven that they will route their cars remotely and based on the latest video from JJ that they try to avoid all/most construction zones.
That is not autonomy, that is sandbox upon a sandbox in the desert, with training wheels.

Your mistake is that you only look at the geofence area in Chandler and you compare that with FSD Beta. You keep pretending like the geofence area in Chandler is the only area where Waymo has autonomous driving. It's not. Waymo has done 20M autonomous miles with safety drivers all over the US. As of March 2021, FSD Beta had done approximately 153,000 miles. That's 20M miles for Waymo compared to 153,000 miles for Tesla. So, Waymo has seen a lot more scenarios in the real world than Tesla.
 
Even with Tesla's L2 FSD Beta, I have seen the FSD Beta handle more scenarios in the real world than a Waymo car!
That's kind of an interesting point of view that maybe I could agree with.
Can you also agree you have seen L2 FSD beta try and straight up murder more people than you have seen a Waymo car do? Because some of those videos are really scary. Autonomy is just as much about reliability as capability.
If you cherry pick videos, any car is autonomous. Even an unoccupied 1965 Ford F-150 will survive an unprotected left now and then given enough attempts.

Because for all intents and purposes, Waymo has proven that they will route their cars remotely
And Tesla has proven that they require a human in the car to take over at any moment with much less latency than remote driving can handle.

Seriously, how does anyone think one of these companies is ahead of the other or anywhere near useful L4? Knocking Waymo does not make Tesla closer to L4.
 
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