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Autonomous Car Progress

Terminator857

Member
Aug 5, 2019
820
985
Ca
After using 10.2, I can't see how single stack (whenever it's released) will enable fsd beta to perform at Waymo level in parking lots, so I'll take the loss here and give diplomat his 10 likes.
Can we make a new bet? :) What is more interesting to bet on? When will level 3 arrive in stop and go traffic? When will ability to navigate Costco parking lot arrive?
 

mark95476

Active Member
Jun 21, 2020
2,067
1,589
Bay Area CA
Yes, we'll see if Tesla regrets not relying on 5G+ and in-car real-time OTA HD maps.

Are Stellantis, Toyota, VW, etc. ADAS and L2+ all crushing Tesla's AP? I watch Bjorn Nyland's YouTube videos and they're not performing well when compared to Tesla's AP.

We used to hear that missing LIDAR would doom Tesla's ambitions. LIDAR proponents aren't as vocal now. Tesla even went a step further and got rid of radar for FSDbeta.

No I’m not, I just believe FSD (L3+) will never happen without a HD Map and TomTom is the number one HD Map provider for US, Europe and Asia (excl China). Stellantis, Toyoto (Lexus), VW, etc. are all using HD Maps for ADAS and L2+. Same as NIO and XPENG. Most mapmakers are startups and only making the HD Maps for cities and robottaxis (L4+). They will not provide global HD Maps like TomTom and HERE. HD Maps are scalable, when there are enough cars on the road like now and the vehicles are connected with 5G+ to receive the actual real time maps OTA for the area where the car is driving.

I think Elon will regret not using in-car real time OTA HD Maps, time will tell……
 
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rxlawdude

Active Member
Jul 10, 2015
3,305
2,806
Orange County, CA
Yes, we'll see if Tesla regrets not relying on 5G+ and in-car real-time OTA HD maps.

Are Stellantis, Toyota, VW, etc. ADAS and L2+ all crushing Tesla's AP? I watch Bjorn Nyland's YouTube videos and they're not performing well when compared to Tesla's AP.

We used to hear that missing LIDAR would doom Tesla's ambitions. LIDAR proponents aren't as vocal now. Tesla even went a step further and got rid of radar for FSDbeta.
Relying on 5G live HD map downloads is not smart. Tons of places where T signals are weak, including many suburbs.
 
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daktari

Active Member
Jan 21, 2017
1,028
1,208
Norway
Can we make a new bet? :) What is more interesting to bet on? When will level 3 arrive in stop and go traffic? When will ability to navigate Costco parking lot arrive?
There was a dude that made a bet for $10.000 to charity back in 2017/18 (?) On FSD progress, against @BigD0g that was more realistic, but the user never held his word and vanished from TMC.
 

Terminator857

Member
Aug 5, 2019
820
985
Ca
There was a dude that made a bet for $10.000 to charity back in 2017/18 (?) On FSD progress, against @BigD0g that was more realistic, but the user never held his word and vanished from TMC.
If we play for ten hearts or ten likes then it is less likely someone will skip out or be bitter if someone does skip out. @powertoold name the game? How about we bet when 50% of people who paid for FSD get beta? I'm thinking it won't be this year. We could start another poll and those that lose have to like those that win. Just a 2 cent thought.
 
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I think they're based in the Netherlands as well.
TomTom is based in NL but that’s not important. It’s about the discussion of FSD (L3+) will be possible without real time OTA in-car HD Maps, Like I said I think this will be required by law for safety reasons for L3+.
And indeed TomTom is the market leader for global HD Maps. Wait until Lexus or Stellantis models will come with their L3 models in 2022 with HD Maps. Xpeng en NIO art performing better with HD Maps in China and will come to Europe as well. First they start in Norway.
 

diplomat33

Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Aug 3, 2017
8,753
12,423
Terre Haute, IN USA
WeRide, a Chinese autonomous driving company, unveiled their new lightweight sensor suite:

The product, WeRide Sensor Suite 4.0, is one-sixth the size of version 3.0 and occupies less than 0.4 square meters of roof area, according to the company.

WeRide Sensor Suite 4.0 weighs 13 kg net, 20 percent the weight of its predecessor, the company said.

The suite includes LiDAR, 4D millimeter-wave radar, solid-state LiDAR, blind-area LiDAR, and a camera module developed by the company's in-house team that enables full 360-degree field-of-view coverage, the company said.

It is capable of up to 300 meters of forward-facing, dead-zone-free detection, judging and identifying objects and their motion states, special traffic scenes and signs within the sensing range.

WeRide said the kit requires only 12 processes to assemble the product modules and can achieve an average of 20 minutes to produce a set on a mass production line.

0a4361d56e3de13526078ceaa3f51ac8.jpg


955f6d11e53c30c0bcdd307b7bbeb201.jpg



I think this shows significant progress towards making the robotaxi sensor suite more integrated into the car. It also seems like something you could retrofit to most cars more easily. The sensor suite seems more scalable to consumer cars IMO.
 
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powertoold

Active Member
Oct 10, 2014
3,159
6,832
USA
If we play for ten hearts or ten likes then it is less likely someone will skip out or be bitter if someone does skip out. @powertoold name the game? How about we bet when 50% of people who paid for FSD get beta? I'm thinking it won't be this year. We could start another poll and those that lose have to like those that win. Just a 2 cent thought.

My track record with predictions haven't been great lately. And if I do say something, it's often misconstrued. So from now on, I'd have to explain it thoroughly to make sure we're all on the same page lol.

Having used 10.2, the challenge of Tesla's generalized goal seems immense. I'd have to take some more time to sort it all out.
 

diplomat33

Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Aug 3, 2017
8,753
12,423
Terre Haute, IN USA
I wish Waymo and Cruise drivers could be more transparent like this driver:


Yes, it would be great if we got more videos from Waymo or Cruise (with safety drivers) to show more of what they can handle or not handle. Believe me, I wish we had more videos of Waymo's 5th Gen driving around to see what it can do. But keep in mind that Waymo and Cruise are using professional safety drivers. The safety drivers are employees of the company. The testing is not about making videos. The testing is part of their internal testing of the system. The safety drivers have a job to do that involves monitoring the performance of the system and providing feedback to the development team. Their job is not making videos for youtube. So filming while driving would not be a good idea. Of course, Waymo, Cruise could film some unedited autonomous drives and put them out but by the very nature of videos, they would only be a small sample and you would probaby still call them "marketing".

The reason we get videos from Tesla is because Tesla is choosing to release their system directly to customers and let the customers test the system. It's great for us to see the development and progress first hand. But what Tesla is doing with FSD Beta is actually considered really bad in the industry because it is not good testing practice to be making youtube videos of your automated driving system with untrained testers. We see examples of near misses all the time with FSD Beta because the testers are not adequately supervising and intervening in time.
 

Bitdepth

Member
Apr 23, 2020
131
225
London
I wish Waymo and Cruise drivers could be more transparent like this driver. Sadly, there are too many NDAs and examples of deceptive marketing:
There is nothing in that video that is any more transparent than what JJRicks was able to show in his rides with waymo. JJRicks went above and beyond documenting all his rides.

 
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powertoold

Active Member
Oct 10, 2014
3,159
6,832
USA
Nah, the only thing I know for certain is that Tesla is years (5+) ahead of everyone else for FSD that works like an Uber (USA-wide).

If Waymo and Cruise *drivers* and remote operators could be forthcoming about what they encounter, we'd be surprised about their systems' limitations.
 
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EVNow

Well-Known Member
Sep 5, 2009
12,539
33,572
Seattle, WA
There is nothing in that video that is any more transparent than what JJRicks was able to show in his rides with waymo. JJRicks went above and beyond documenting all his rides.

What we now need are people to take the exact same route in FSD beta and we can compare.

Better still, tag team with one taking Waymo and another following with FSD Beta (and the other way!). Let us see if I can get someone in S.F. interested in the idea.
 
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Bitdepth

Member
Apr 23, 2020
131
225
London
Nah, the only thing I know for certain is that Tesla is years (5+) ahead of everyone else for FSD that works like an Uber (USA-wide).
There is no Tesla FSD that works as an Uber. There were supposed to be 1 million of them in 2020 but there are currently none, not in a geofenced area and most certainly none anywhere on this planet.
If Waymo and Cruise *drivers* and remote operators could be forthcoming about what they encounter, we'd be surprised about their systems' limitations.
Would we be surprised? Do we not have documented examples of some issues Waymo has? We know Waymo does not like to drive in the rain but JJRicks has it on record showing it. Waymo car detects rain, informs JJRicks on the rider screen, decides it wants to pull over, hands control over to the safety "driver" since there is one in the car, and informs remote support who then calls JJricks to report the issue. All recorded on video. Whats not transparent about that?
 

Bitdepth

Member
Apr 23, 2020
131
225
London
What we now need are people to take the exact same route in FSD beta and we can compare.

Better still, tag team with one taking Waymo and another following with FSD Beta (and the other way!). Let us see if I can get someone in S.F. interested in the idea.
I'm all for another Urban Challenge involving every ADS company except in the real world traffic. Most importantly no one in the driver's seat, maybe someone in the passenger seat with a single RED disengage button that would stop the car in its track.
 

Terminator857

Member
Aug 5, 2019
820
985
Ca
Nah, the only thing I know for certain is that Tesla is years (5+) ahead of everyone else for FSD that works like an Uber (USA-wide).

If Waymo and Cruise *drivers* and remote operators could be forthcoming about what they encounter, we'd be surprised about their systems' limitations.
Bold statement. I'd be surprised if Tesla is 5+ years ahead of everyone else. I'm sure Waymo or other driverless companies are going to be in a dozen cities before Tesla has a useful uber like feature. Although that doesn't disagree with your statement about being nation wide. It will be 5 or more years before Tesla reaches uber like FSD. I do think they are ahead, but 5+ years seems too much. Maybe 2+ years.
 

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