But I think K’s point (can I call him that???) is that there isnt just some dial any of these makers can turn and suddenly turn out vast numbers of BEVs .. for a start, there is a huge battery availability problem (why do you think Tesla have their own battery facilities?). Sure, anyone with deep enough pockets is capable of building EVs at scale .. eventually. But that takes years of infrastructure build-out, logistics, contracts and 3rd party OEM ramp-up.
Please help me here. Existing taxis/Uber/Lyft are economically feasible with a human driver and non-EV cars. So, if it not economically feasible to have robotaxis without EVs, then the AV technology must cost more per year than the human driver, thus requiring additional cost savings.Making a big fleet of RTs that aren't EVs is economically nonsensical at this point.
Uber still doesn't make money. Waymo claims it eventually will turn a profit.Please help me here. Existing taxis/Uber/Lyft are economically feasible with a human driver and non-EV cars. So, if it not economically feasible to have robotaxis without EVs, then the AV technology must cost more per year than the human driver, thus requiring additional cost savings.
That is true. And I get that switching to EV manufacturing is not easy. But I think there is an assumption here that a successful and profitable robotaxi company must have their own manufacturing and must be able to crank out millions of robotaxis.
The fact is that we are still in the early days of robotaxis. We have not even solved the tech part yet. So I think it is a bit premature to be talking about mass producing millions of robotaxis.
Right now, any company that could just deploy 1000 driverless robotaxi would be a winner.
Sure, at some point when we have thousands of robotaxis everywhere, the company that can produce millions of robotaxis themselves is going to beat the company that has to outsource production and maybe only gets a few thousand. But we are not there yet.
Please help me here. Existing taxis/Uber/Lyft are economically feasible with a human driver and non-EV cars.
That won't happen until there is enough production capacity though. Voters will not accept that mandate if it means fewer annual vehicle sales (and therefore much higher prices). California plans to go EV only for passenger cars in 2035 and for commercial vans in 2045. Of course I'm a bit skeptical we'll see widespread robotaxis before then too. haha.Because, by the time Robotaxis are ready, lot of countries / cities would have banned ICE.
A winner of what? Certainly not profitability.
I agree we're not there.
But now it seems you've come around to agreeing we care about having an advanced factory when we ARE there at least
I guess Uber and Lyft have shown that you don't have to turn a profit with your services to be economically feasible. You just need investors! I expect Waymo will be the same.No, they aren't.
Both companies have been losing billions of dollars for their entire existence. Uber DID have ONE profitable quarter last year under GAAP rules thanks to gains from an external investment- not from their actual business. Further, nearly half their revenues now are from food delivery, not taxi service.
Why not? If the cost of operating of 1000 robotaxis is less than the revenue generated by the 1000 robotaxis, they would be profitable. I think it should be possible to be profitable with 1000 robotaxis if costs are low enough and you are in a good service area that generates lots of rides.
Oh I agree that when we are "there", having an advanced factory will be key. But it could be 5-10 years before we are "there". Are you saying that in 5-10 years, Tesla will still be the only company with an advanced factory able to mass produce robotaxis? That would surprise me.
And maybe that was not your intention in your original post, but my "who cares" was just pushing back against the notion that Tesla will have a ride-hailing network of millions of driverless robotaxis by 2023 just because they have advanced factories that can mass produce lots of EVs. Like I said, there is a big difference between mass producing EVs and deploying a driverless robotaxis in a ride-hailing network.
Because making only 1000 of a custom car is insanely expensive. You don't just need to make revenue > operating costs, you also need to pay for the car
Further- you need to do all that while keeping your prices low enough that you get enough business.
Yeah, could be. It's funny how fast it takes off. My interpretation was that the cars behavior was entirely autonomous until remote assistance hit the big red button causing it to pull over and turn on the hazards. Really not sure though.Funny but looks more like remote assist telling the car to cross the traffic and pull over in the next section of the road so as not to impede left turn lane and traffic. Still funny though as the cops don't know how to react.
Agreed. That's why Waymo's first 1000 weren't custom. And IMHO their next 10,000 shouldn't be, either. GM and AmaZoox jumped the gun with podcars. Better to run a service a while to learn customer needs and encounter unexpected operational issues.Because making only 1000 of a custom car is insanely expensive.
Legacy has zero problems building EVs at scale. They just can't sell them.Folks have been "surprised" by how badly legacy has been doing EV manufacturing for a lot of years now.
Now, EVENTUALLY, you'll have other companies that can genuinely do EVs at scale.
Tesla, a low cost manufacturer? Hilarious. Their cheapest car is $50k. They have to hard-wire manufacturing lines for a single variant and run one color per day. Manufacturing is not their strong suite, to put it kindly. Their overwhelming advantage is marketing. Put a Ford, Buick or VW badge on a Model 3, cut the price 10k and you still couldn't sell 100k of them.But hey, if ANYBODY has working-at-scale RT tech by then, and Tesla doesn't, they can always offer to mass produce RTs for THOSE guys.... faster and cheaper than your GMs of the world could
Legacy has zero problems building EVs at scale. They just can't sell them.
Tesla, a low cost manufacturer? Hilarious. Their cheapest car is $50k.
. Manufacturing is not their strong suite, to put it kindly
. Their overwhelming advantage is marketing.