mikes_fsd
Banned
I don't think I will... but don't you have a Waymo video to post?! or is it Cruise?
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Autonomous Car Progress
- Thread starter stopcrazypp
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diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
And I won't leave either. I am a Tesla owner and a Tesla shareholder. I have every right to be on this forum and share my opinions.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Thank you for saying that. I know we've had some strong debates. But I respect your opinion and you contribute a lot to this forum.
Actually, technically, what they have is an ALPHA release .. “beta” was always reserved for software that was thought to be bug-free but was going through a final test phase before general release. That’s why its called “beta”. However, over time, and more for publicity reasons than anything (thank you, marketing dept), the term “beta” has come to mean any pre-release of software. Perhaps everyone has some growing up to do?
I’ve always felt it’s apples to oranges. Waymo has a system that attempts to driver very well in a small area, Tesla a system drives moderately well in a very wide area. Over time both will converge, but from different directions. Tesla will get better at driving, Waymo will get better at going outside its safety zone. Which approach will “win” remains to be seen, though if (a bit “if”) Tesla pull it off without LIDAR then they will ultimately have the edge imho (LIDAR isnt the magic bullet so many people seem to think anyway).
mikes_fsd
Banned
mikes_fsd
Banned
Dude, unlike you, I did not tell you to leave!
But nice flex!
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
That's a total of about 70 miles and 4 interventions. That's a disengagement rate of approximately 17.5 miles per intervention.
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That's a total of about 70 miles and 4 interventions. That's a disengagement rate of approximately 17.5 miles per intervention.
This is to be expected. This software works everywhere without HD maps. It's going to have a much higher intervention rate at first. I actually think that makes it safer, because people will be on constant alert if it requires interventions that frequently. IMO we won't reach the high 9's level of reliability until HW4/Dojo is ready. The marginal reliability returns on compute power is logarithmic from here.
FloridaJohn
Member
I'll take that as a success at this early stage. At least we are starting to get some numbers to set a baseline.
That's a total of about 70 miles and 4 interventions. That's a disengagement rate of approximately 17.5 miles per intervention.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Yes, that is why I want Tesla to release disengagement data because then we can start measuring Tesla's progress in a more quantitative way, rather than just qualitative.
Just since COVID.
Good point. Though until there's a vaccine we won't know how effective it is and whether we'll be able to return to life as it used to be.
Tesla is still Level 2. Wake me up when it's Level 3.
Yes, what they've done is amazing. Heck, my Model 3 with EAP is absolutely amazing and I love it! It's the best car we can buy. But if we're talking autonomy or robotaxis, Level 2 ain't it. Level 2 means the car takes no responsibility whatsoever. Tesla has called autosteer "beta" since it was first introduced. Granted, with EAP there was no promise of Level 3. But it's still "beta" for crying out loud!
How many years will it be before the latest features are no longer "beta" and they designate it Level 3 or 4?
mikes_fsd
Banned
.... the show must go on.
If they only sell their FSD as L2 (supervision required) but it does everything for you, 10000x safer then the average driver.
You'd still be here pushing the goal posts around.
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DanCar
Active Member
I feel it likely they will call level 3 beta. Use at your own risk, even though they have the option to remove the nags.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
You can't have a Level 2 robotaxi. What are you talking about?
I would say what they have now is Level 5 beta. The CA DMV could declare it as such and make it subject to autonomous vehicle testing regulations (those would also apply to beta Level 3 vehicles). I think this would only happen if people don't do a good job supervising it. It will be interesting to see what happens.
DanCar
Active Member
Tesla's response might be to limit the software in California and let the rest of the country have fun.
DanCar
Active Member
Disengagements will vary by condition, such as city driving, traffic congestion, and hell bent drivers. In other words the distance between disengagements will be much higher on a not so crowded limited access freeways. Suspect disengagement distance is less than 4 miles in crowded city. As you say, would be good to get a number that we can track. I'm sure some youtubers will provide some. Predict it will be 4x better from start of 2021 to end of 2021.
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Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Fine with me, let them work out the bugs! haha. I'm sure once it's out of beta they'll release it in California.
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