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Autonomous Car Progress

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#8,541
I enjoy the Highway AP (free) as its useful. Really reduces fatigue on long boring highway trips.

As it relates to city driving: for me, unless its an offering that is L4 or L5 and the mfrer takes full accountability for any accidents that occur while the autonomous driving is enabled, and its allowed for the driver to not have to supervise? Just not worth it to me. In the city, if I have to pay attention full time? I may as well....drive myself in the city. Anyone else share this perspective about (any brand) of city assisted driving?
 
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#8,548
Back in 2015 I was convinced that autonomy would be ubiquitous in consumer cars - anywhere from L3 to L5 - in 10 years or so, or 2025. I further thought by 2040, you wouldn't be allowed to drive your car manually except in extraordinary circumstances. After 4+ years with my Tesla w/ EAP/FSD, I no longer think autonomy will be present in consumer cars - certainly not L4 or L5 - for many more years. But I do think robotaxis will cover 80% of the U.S. population by 2027 or 2028.
 
#8,549
Goose66 said:
Back in 2015 I was convinced that autonomy would be ubiquitous in consumer cars - anywhere from L3 to L5 - in 10 years or so, or 2025. I further thought by 2040, you wouldn't be allowed to drive your car manually except in extraordinary circumstances. After 4+ years with my Tesla w/ EAP/FSD, I no longer think autonomy will be present in consumer cars - certainly not L4 or L5 - for many more years. But I do think robotaxis will cover 80% of the U.S. population by 2027 or 2028.
Click to expand...
China seems to be hitting the gas pedal hard on autonomy - we may see the first consumer L3-L4 from China, while Waymo/Cruise/Zoox hit the goal in the US with robotaxis.
 
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#8,551
Goose66 said:
Back in 2015 I was convinced that autonomy would be ubiquitous in consumer cars - anywhere from L3 to L5 - in 10 years or so, or 2025. I further thought by 2040, you wouldn't be allowed to drive your car manually except in extraordinary circumstances. After 4+ years with my Tesla w/ EAP/FSD, I no longer think autonomy will be present in consumer cars - certainly not L4 or L5 - for many more years. But I do think robotaxis will cover 80% of the U.S. population by 2027 or 2028.
Click to expand...
I’m a big fan of whatever is available, but I honestly don’t think it will truly be completely hands off, until cars can actually talk to each other and make mutual decisions. That is what large, fast aircraft do, ”I am going to descend, please ascend” direct comms between aircraft. TCAS traffic collision avoidance system. We are a very long way from that.
 
#8,552
DCGOO said:
until cars can actually talk to each other and make mutual decisions
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Apart from hand signs when stopped, currently road traffic does not need that. Why should it need it in the future?

One could argue that it would be better if we had something like this, but what does that have to do with automated driving? If it were advantageous, we should get it for manually driven cars as well. I don't see any attempts at that.
 
#8,553
DCGOO said:
I’m a big fan of whatever is available, but I honestly don’t think it will truly be completely hands off, until cars can actually talk to each other and make mutual decisions. That is what large, fast aircraft do, ”I am going to descend, please ascend” direct comms between aircraft. TCAS traffic collision avoidance system. We are a very long way from that.
Click to expand...
Except that TCAS doesn't fly the plane. It just issues warnings and/or directives to the pilot for resolution. Sort of like Forward Collision Warnings in Tesla and other cars. But I agree that car-to-car communication will add an order of magnitude of safety to autonomous vehicles, but only once all (or at least the vast majority of) cars are already autonomous, IMO. Think intersections without lights for control.

Even more important is car-to-infrastructure communication (defined in the same NHTSA standard here in the U.S.). This will allow an autonomous car to respond early to changes in road conditions or markings that may not be in the map database, move out of the way of emergency vehicles, properly handle school zones and lights that are out, etc. Car-to-car and Car-to-infrastructure are may be what's needed to move consumer L3 autonomous systems built on today's platforms, like what I believe (hope) Tesla's FSD will someday be in my Model 3, to an L4 system, with the driver having ample time to takeover when the infrastructure communications indicate something ahead is amiss. We may not even need a HW upgrade for this, if the frequencies and protocols developed wind up being able to utilize existing communication equipment in the car, e.g. the Wi-fi radio.
 
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#8,554
Goose66 said:
Car-to-car and Car-to-infrastructure are may be what's needed to move consumer L3 autonomous systems built on today's platforms,
Click to expand...
That might work if you have special lanes on the highway but no way is it ever happening in general. There are 280 million registered vehicles in the US and 17 million sold a year. It would take over a decade to turn over the whole fleet. I don't get the point of car to infrastructure at all. I've never seen a California autonomous collision report that looks like it would have been prevented by car to infrastructure. Actually I've never seen a collision report that looks like it would be solved by car-to-car unless you're talking about Waymo being able to order a human driven car to slam on the brakes.
 
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#8,555
Daniel in SD said:
That might work if you have special lanes on the highway but no way is it ever happening in general. There are 280 million registered vehicles in the US and 17 million sold a year. It would take over a decade to turn over the whole fleet. I don't get the point of car to infrastructure at all. I've never seen a California autonomous collision report that looks like it would have been prevented by car to infrastructure. Actually I've never seen a collision report that looks like it would be solved by car-to-car unless you're talking about Waymo being able to order a human driven car to slam on the brakes.
Click to expand...
"Never" represents a very long time. But we have to start somewhere. It could (someday) be a requirement to enter the interstate highway system.
 
#8,557
thewishmaster said:
Cruise car gets stuck and blocks traffic:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1573269947064717313
Click to expand...

IMO, Cruise is not ready yet to scale because of issues like this. You can't do robotaxis if they are going to stall in the middle of the road and need a tech to come and bail it out. They need to fix these issues. Also, it is noteworthy that Cruise has not yet expanded to daytime driverless rides yet. So yeah, I think Cruise is overhyping their tech. It does not seem ready for prime time yet IMO.
 
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#8,559
diplomat33 said:
IMO, Cruise is not ready yet to scale because of issues like this. You can't do robotaxis if they are going to stall in the middle of the road and need a tech to come and bail it out. They need to fix these issues. Also, it is noteworthy that Cruise has not yet expanded to daytime driverless rides yet. So yeah, I think Cruise is overhyping their tech. It does not seem ready for prime time yet IMO.
Click to expand...

No kidding:
https://www.reddit.com/r/sanfrancisco/comments/xmivfn
 
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