Autonomy Investor Day - April 22 at 2pm ET

[Daniel in SD]

) GM promises a future product (robotaxis) with the only evidence being a few demos of full self-driving we've seen. No evidence of production or that they can deliver the future product. GM will probably be late at delivering their robotaxis or, more likely, just forget about it completely. I can't tell you how sick I am of these legacy auto makers always showing concept cars and future products that never see the light of day.

They did 500k autonomous miles on public roads in California last year. Tesla did zero.

 

[diplomat33]

Where did you see GM say they were developing L5? No steering wheel ISN'T Level 5.

Level 5 = no geo-fencing or limitations, that means the car can drive anywhere, on any roads, in any weather condition and any road condition.

This has been repeated 1,000 times...

My bad. I thought no steering wheel meant L5. If L4 sometimes requires driver to take control, then a steering wheel would still be needed. Only L5 which is fully automated (driver optional) would be no steering wheel. Based on this graphic L4 requires a steering wheel.

 

[electronblue]

They did 500k autonomous miles on public roads in California last year. Tesla did zero.

That’s nothing. Tesla is selling a Level 5 no geofence car, feature complete end of 2019.

 

[electronblue]

@diplomat33 We did discuss the steering wheel I couple of pages ago. SAE does talk steering wheel and it is not strictly tied to levels but if you consider what the levels mean, a consumer car really can’t be Level 4 without a steering wheel — a dedicated regional robotaxi product could. Hence the usual mantra is, and indeed is often pictures, Level 2 ”hands off”, Level 3 ”eyes off”, Level 4 ”mind off”, Level 5 ”steering wheel off” or something in that spirit.

@Lasairfion SAE does mention steering wheel and it is widely accepted that Level 5 is when that can come off, it is the whole hands off (Level 2), eyes off (Level 3), mind off (Level 4), steering wheel off (Level 5) mantra after all, though that part is unofficial of course. SAE does mention it may be removed for specific applications on Level 4, but what Tesla here is picturing a Model 3 being sold without any steering wheel as a consumer car and that can obviously be only Level 5.

 

[Eno Deb]

Another way to look at it:
1) GM promises a future product (robotaxis) with the only evidence being a few demos of full self-driving we've seen. No evidence of production or that they can deliver the future product.

Actually, I think they have shown a lot more evidence than Tesla. I have been able to ride one of their Cruise cars in San Francisco and while it still has its problems, it's way beyond anything Tesla has shown so far.

2) Tesla promises the same future product (robotaxis) but actually delivers cars with the hardware AP3)

In fact, we don't know yet if the new hardware will be capable of L5 autonomy. And obviously other companies are also evolving their hardware.

 

[Daniel in SD]

My bad. I thought no steering wheel meant L5. If L4 sometimes requires driver to take control, then a steering wheel would still be needed. Only L5 which is fully automated (driver optional) would be no steering wheel.

You you can do L4 with remote control. A geofenced level 4 taxi with no steering wheel would be able to be remote controlled if it got itself into a situation that it could not handle. That’s one of the proposals I’ve seen and I think it’s allowed under California’s rules.

 

[J1mbo]

Tesla also uses radar data to train and refine vision NN, all done automatically. It's mentioned in Karpathy's presentation in the investor event.

Not my point. The others use radar/lidar as primary sensor for determining distance.

 

[electronblue]

I guess on this one could say, any sufficiently advanced Level 4 is indistinguishable from Level 5. Expect to see the steering wheels drop when that level is approaching.

 

[diplomat33]

@diplomat33 We did discuss the steering wheel I couple of pages ago. SAE does talk steering wheel and it is not strictly tied to levels but if you consider what the levels mean, a consumer car really can’t be Level 4 without a steering wheel — a dedicated regional robotaxi product could. Hence the usual mantra is, and indeed is often pictures, Level 2 ”hands off”, Level 3 ”eyes off”, Level 4 ”mind off”, Level 5 ”steering wheel off” or something in that spirit.

That's why I think as no steering wheel being equal to L5.

You you can do L4 with remote control. A geofenced level 4 taxi with no steering wheel would be able to be remote controlled if it got itself into a situation that it could not handle. That’s one of the proposals I’ve seen and I think it’s allowed under California’s rules.

Thanks guys. That is helpful.

Honestly, maybe I don't fully understand the levels even though I am trying. I thought I did. I've seen the definitions like a million times now. Or maybe it's that folks can have slightly different understandings of how the levels would actually look in the real world. Or maybe some of you are just messing with me?

 

[electronblue]

@diplomat33 Yeah, I don’t disagree with you on this steering wheel question overall.

In spirit at least the no steering wheel is Level 5 stuff. In practice of course there may be regional robotaxi fleets that simply do their region without steering wheels at Level 4 and, yes, SAE does mention that option in their materials.

 

[Bladerskb]

In spirit or in practical, removing the steering wheel or not removing it has nothing to do with the SAE Level 5 or 4.

It's not a criteria of being level 4 or 5, therefore it should not be discussed when referencing the levels. It only makes things confusing.

Level 5 is simply a system that can drive anywhere in all conditions.

 

[rnortman]

Waymo built an L4 prototype (the pod-looking thing) with no steering wheel. It was L4, not L5. Geofenced (to a private test course, but in principle it could have operated geofenced on public roads and still have been L4). An L4 car may be able to drive in all conditions in a limited area, in all areas in limited conditions, or in limited areas under limited conditions. But it does not necessarily require a steering wheel (except as required by local regulations, which have nothing to do with SAE levels).

Nor does having a steering wheel disqualify it from being L5 (or L4).

 

[electronblue]

Nor does having a steering wheel disqualify it from being L5 (or L4).

Nobody claimed that of course. Lacking a steering wheel is optional.

 

[electronblue]

In spirit or in practical, removing the steering wheel or not removing it has nothing to do with the SAE Level 5 or 4.

It's not a criteria of being level 4 or 5, therefore it should not be discussed when referencing the levels. It only makes things confusing.

Level 5 is simply a system that can drive anywhere in all conditions.

Who said it was a criteria? It is the other way around: at those levels it becomes optional and especially on Level 5.

No wonder then that is how it is discussed and presented often - by SAE themselves as well - and it makes sense too: Level 5 is the level the steering wheel truly becomes optional. It is true SAE terminology also discusses steering wheel removal on Level 4 in specific cases, as said.

Making a Level 3 car without a steering wheel is probably harder, though depending on the jurisdiction I guess not completely impossible. Maybe that joystick Saab...

 

[electronblue]

For clarity I’d like to mention the previous steering wheel discussion needs to be taken in the context where it started from:

On the 22nd Tesla presented two ways of removing the steering wheel from their ”Level 5 no geofence” Teslas: one was a ”cap” retrofit to existing cars and another was a steeringwheel-less Model 3 design to be sold two years from now.

The question, for me, wasn’t so much what SAE says about steering wheels, but what SAE Level says about the kind of car Tesla would need to sell, if they choose to sell it without a steering wheel.

Especially if you are selling that Model 3 to consumers without a steering wheel, for that to fit the SAE Levels, I can not see it could be anything but Level 5. So taken together with Tesla actually saying ”Level 5 no geofence”, their steeringwheel-less Model 3 is additional proof of their Level 5 ambitions.

For limited, dedicated commercial robotaxi fleets Level 4 can work without a steering wheel as they can rely on regional management and remote operation. That does not work for consumer cars, at least not unless that Level 4 is so advanced it is practically indistiguishable from Level 5.

So the question isn’t just when does SAE say remove the steering wheel (it doesn’t of course mandate that at all), but the other way around: What does SAE say IF you remove the steering wheel. That is why Level 5 is usually considered the level when the steering wheel can go.

 

[CarlK]

That's why I think as no steering wheel being equal to L5.



Thanks guys. That is helpful.

Honestly, maybe I don't fully understand the levels even though I am trying. I thought I did. I've seen the definitions like a million times now. Or maybe it's that folks can have slightly different understandings of how the levels would actually look in the real world. Or maybe some of you are just messing with me?

L5 is what EVERYONE could get in the car on his/her driveway to have it to take him/her to work or store anytime long as roads are open to regular traffic. In other words do everything a human driven car could do. Short of that it would be L4. That's why Elon said in the event geofence'd car is not self driving car.

 

[mongo]

Pickup, semi, P versions of the cars, along with those with towing packages must have steering wheels and pedals. Heck, even with normal cars, how would you indicate where in the garage to park? I suppose you could use the touch screen to drive at low speeds.

A specialized robotaxi could go without though.

 

[CarlK]

I have to admit I used to still have some doubts, or questions, of how a self driving car or Tesla FSD could reach absolute L5 capability. Those doubts were completely removed after the Monday's event. Those show stopping issues people usually raise, like how to handle lane changes, watch for other cars changing lanes, watch for pedestrian movement, handle multi-way stop signs, driving on snow covered roads, driving on curvy roads you can't see far...were all clearly answered with pretty straightforward machine learning solutions. There are methodolegies set up for machines to learn all those scenarios, and all scenarios we would see. All it will need is to give the machine more miles of learning experiences. BTW it was mentioned the pretty amazing, even by critics, test drive was result of only 3 months of machine learning with probably not that many HW3 equipped cars.

 

[Lasairfion]

I know some of you are laughing at the last comment, but I honestly think that it's the answer Elon is proposing to the question. In order to be at the point where you can self-drive a car, you have to have some serious machine learning for vision as the primary system.

That's what he is working on, and suggesting that the results are exponential. In the end we will wait and find out, but I think the wait won't be as long as many think.

 

[R.S]

I am not sure it was geofenced in the strictest sense. Tesla did not modify the software just for that specific route. They did not hard code anything. They just picked the route, that's all. It was a live test drive with no tricks. And they did the route over and over again for different investors. So there was bound to be a test drive with one disengagement.

And how do you know that? Did they ever say the AP2 demo was a lucky run with hard coded parts? No they never said that, but maybe they weren’t really confident, that FSD will happen soon.

But now Elon is really confident and says:

I feel pretty good about the goal of a demonstration drive of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York. Basically from a home in LA to – let’s say – dropping you off in Time Square in New York and then having the car park itself by the end of next year.

Oh wait, that was back in 2016. So now 3 years later FSD is still just 1 year out. And that’s what I don’t get. Elon has pulled that trick off before and people are again falling for it! And I bet in 2022 there will be a big announcement about how FSD will definitely happen in 2023 and people will applaud and cheer...