Autopilot 2.0 + Model X

[tanner]

Still trying to decide whether to spend the money on the X when my turn to configure rolls around.... How likely do you think the possibility of autopilot 2.0 (and/or other groundbreaking features) being introduced between early - late 2016 / early 17 is? Basically, I don't wanna end up in another pre-autopilot non-D P85 situation where the car becomes obsolete in a year (like my S became with the introduction of the P85D + autopilot).

 

[timf]

The only frame of comparison is Model S, and the big changes did not start occurring until during its third year of production. With Model X being a much more mature design, it's not likely that there will be major feature changes as quickly as Model S. Tesla's focus will be on getting Model 3 out, and unless they come up with some revolutionary feature there that Model S and X are lacking, I don't expect to see much flow-through technology.

The Autopilot system may see incremental updates to the hardware to increase the reliability of the system, but any revolutionary new features such as being able to drive on surface streets and through intersections without input from the driver are still going to be several years out and held up by regulatory committees moreso than available hardware. I would not delay a purchase decision based solely on this feature.

 

[fengshui]

I agree that there won't be significant changes for some time. The S got a lot of changes because it needed them, and the release of the X was significantly delayed due to those changes. With the design team working hard on Model 3, I don't think they're going to have any cycles available for upgrades to the X until at least after the 3 is finalized.

 

[tanner]

I agree that there won't be significant changes for some time. The S got a lot of changes because it needed them, and the release of the X was significantly delayed due to those changes. With the design team working hard on Model 3, I don't think they're going to have any cycles available for upgrades to the X until at least after the 3 is finalized.

The only frame of comparison is Model S, and the big changes did not start occurring until during its third year of production. With Model X being a much more mature design, it's not likely that there will be major feature changes as quickly as Model S. Tesla's focus will be on getting Model 3 out, and unless they come up with some revolutionary feature there that Model S and X are lacking, I don't expect to see much flow-through technology.

The Autopilot system may see incremental updates to the hardware to increase the reliability of the system, but any revolutionary new features such as being able to drive on surface streets and through intersections without input from the driver are still going to be several years out and held up by regulatory committees moreso than available hardware. I would not delay a purchase decision based solely on this feature.

It was actually just over two years, since the S was introduced in June of 2012. But that's a very good point... By that logic, we shouldn't expect further updates to the S either, correct? Now I don't know whether to sell my S and get a better one or to go with the X

 

[vandacca]

I agree that there won't be significant changes for some time. The S got a lot of changes because it needed them, and the release of the X was significantly delayed due to those changes. With the design team working hard on Model 3, I don't think they're going to have any cycles available for upgrades to the X until at least after the 3 is finalized.

I would argue that without the recent upgrades on the S, Tesla would be in dire financial straits. Over the past year, people would have compared the soon-to-be-released X with the S and decide that the X was far better and worth waiting for. That would have dried up their only revenue stream and caused serious issues for them.

I think it was essential for Tesla to keep the S highly competitive (compared to the X) and hence they had to update the S with most of the new features found in the X.

 

[tanner]

I would argue that without the recent upgrades on the S, Tesla would be in dire financial straits. Over the past year, people would have compared the soon-to-be-released X with the S and decide that the X was far better and worth waiting for. That would have dried up their only revenue stream and caused serious issues for them.

I think it was essential for Tesla to keep the S highly competitive (compared to the X) and hence they had to update the S with most of the new features found in the X.

That also makes sense, especially from a business standpoint. However, if that's the case, you could argue that Tesla will continue to make minor - radical upgrades to both over the next couple years until the 3 arrives, which will hopefully provide an even greater revenue stream for the company.

 

[ecarfan]

Still trying to decide whether to spend the money on the X when my turn to configure rolls around.... How likely do you think the possibility of autopilot 2.0 (and/or other groundbreaking features) being introduced between early - late 2016 / early 17 is?

Possible, but not probable.
We are all just guessing. Tesla is not a predictable company, except for being predictably late in launching announced new models. Still, that's what happens when the CEO sets ambitious goals. What Elon say will happen usually does happen, just not in the timeframe he wants it to happen. I don't fault him for that.

 

[tanner]

Possible, but not probable.
We are all just guessing. Tesla is not a predictable company, except for being predictably late in launching announced new models. Still, that's what happens when the CEO sets ambitious goals. What Elon say will happen usually does happen, just not in the timeframe he wants it to happen. I don't fault him for that.

True, I still want to see that self-connecting robotic charging arm :biggrin:

 

[vandacca]

That also makes sense, especially from a business standpoint. However, if that's the case, you could argue that Tesla will continue to make minor - radical upgrades to both over the next couple years until the 3 arrives, which will hopefully provide an even greater revenue stream for the company.

Once the X is fully ramped up, if a customer buys one or the other, it's no big deal, as long as the sale isn't lost. I think a large number of people who are considering the Model-X would consider the Model-S to be the only other competitor out there. So, even if they don't do any updates (which is not likely), it will be a while before there is a real, non-Tesla competitor out there. At least 2-3 years I would argue.

 

[tanner]

Once the X is fully ramped up, if a customer buys one or the other, it's no big deal, as long as the sale isn't lost. I think a large number of people who are considering the Model-X would consider the Model-S to be the only other competitor out there. So, even if they don't do any updates (which is not likely), it will be a while before there is a real, non-Tesla competitor out there. At least 2-3 years I would argue.

Right, but the point was made that Tesla introduced a lot of the features to continually boost their revenue stream. If that's the case, and there are no significant X or S upgrades for the next 3 years, Tesla could be in trouble.

 

[dsm363]

Just make sure you are happy with the car you order. Not what might come out soon as that's very likely. Tesla doesn't sit still.

 

[tanner]

Just make sure you are happy with he car you order. Not what might come out soon as that's very likely. Tesla doesn't sit still.

Badically there's never a "good" time to buy one... Haha. I wish I could tell which would have the least depreciation; sadly there's nothing to compare it to.

 

[fengshui]

Right, but the point was made that Tesla introduced a lot of the features to continually boost their revenue stream. If that's the case, and there are no significant X or S upgrades for the next 3 years, Tesla could be in trouble.

I don't think that's the case. Most car companies only do major platform upgrades every 6-7 years, with a medium-sized upgrade every 3-4 years, and small upgrades every year. Tesla isn't going to be hurt by selling what is largely the same care for 4-6 years. MB and BMW certainly aren't. We know Tesla will quietly do the minor upgrades as soon as they are available, but with a growing stable of models, I think we should expect their larger upgrades to follow the pattern from the rest of the industry, and be limited by design work on Model 3, the theoretical Model 3 CUV (AKA the Model Y), Roadster 2.0, etc.

 

[dsm363]

It's probably best to not worry about depreciation. Cars are horrible investments so get what you'll be happy with and enjoy. Should be an amazing car. If AP 2.0 does come out soon it'd likely be new hardware. I would imagine they'd wait until 2017 to let all the new X owners enjoy their cars for a bit.

 

[tanner]

I don't think that's the case. Most car companies only do major platform upgrades every 6-7 years, with a medium-sized upgrade every 3-4 years, and small upgrades every year. Tesla isn't going to be hurt by selling what is largely the same care for 4-6 years. MB and BMW certainly aren't. We know Tesla will quietly do the minor upgrades as soon as they are available, but with a growing stable of models, I think we should expect their larger upgrades to follow the pattern from the rest of the industry, and be limited by design work on Model 3, the theoretical Model 3 CUV (AKA the Model Y), Roadster 2.0, etc.

Tesla is also the only new car company in the last 100 years - what's more, they're electric cars. You simply cannot compare them against the industry leaders.

- - - Updated - - -

It's probably best to not worry about depreciation. Cars are horrible investments so get what you'll be happy with and enjoy. Should be an amazing car. If AP 2.0 does come out soon it'd likely be new hardware. I would imagine they'd wait until 2017 to let all the new X owners enjoy their cars for a bit.

Better yet, include new autopilot 2.0 sensors on all Xs and activate the features when the time is right with a firmware update

 

[napabill]

My biggest concern (1st world problem) is that they conform the front of the S to the nose of the X. Would immediately date all older S's.

 

[gjunky]

They will eventually/soon have to include more cameras on the cars to allow for additional autopilot functions. The timing of this is of course impossible to guess. I hope they including the wiring for this in the current X but I doubt it.

 

[tanner]

They will eventually/soon have to include more cameras on the cars to allow for additional autopilot functions. The timing of this is of course impossible to guess. I hope they including the wiring for this in the current X but I doubt it.

Given Tesla's past retrofit actions (or lack thereof), you're probably right.

 

[PeterK]

My biggest concern (1st world problem) is that they conform the front of the S to the nose of the X. Would immediately date all older S's.

I think this change and perhaps a few other improvements are likely to shift from the X to the S before the 3 is available. The Model S is 3.5 years old and while a lot of new features and functions have been added, the exterior is unchanged except for swapping out a handful of paint colors. Tesla will need to do something clearly visible before the S turns 5 in 18 months.