Autopilot 2.0 Not Imminent Based On Production Model X Design Studio [Speculation]

[tanner]

If AP2.0 = SA1.0 (Semi Autonomous, Level 3, highway), then I would wait a few months to get it. I have my suspicions that AP2.0 = SA1.0, but that's just my unfounded guess. I don't see a point for Tesla to release an AP2.0, with more cameras, but that's still not capable of semi-autonomous driving. If they do that, they'll also have to support non-AP, AP1.0, AP2.0 and SA1.0. Otherwise, they can skip a whole set of hardware to support.

If AP2.0 only gets you better sensors for AP1.0 capability, I think AP1.0 is "good enough" for most cases right now.


<- Has Model S with AP1.0

What would the difference between AP2 and SA1 be? Like you enter an address into the GPS and it just starts driving there?

 

[Max*]

What would the difference between AP2 and SA1 be? Like you enter an address into the GPS and it just starts driving there?

With AP you need to be aware and in control of the car. You're the driver. You can't take a nap. You're "supposed to" keep your hands on the wheel.
With SA, the car is in control. You can do whatever you want. Level 3 will be something like on-ramp to off-ramp, and if it cannot do that, it will give the driver sufficient notice to resume control of the car.


There is no AP2.0 yet. It's just speculation that there will be, and it's a term people came up with.

AP is Level 2, SA is Level 3/Level 4. (Autonomous car - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia <-- decent summary under definition, though some organization uses 4a and 4b to decipher cars that can do P2P and cars that can't)

For all we know: AP2.0 could be automatic lane changes. AP2.0 could be rear-radar to avoid being rear ended. AP2.0 could be cross traffic detection. AP2.0 could be a pack of monkeys in the trunk. AP2.0 could be 8 cameras and everything necessary for SA, and SA will come in 3-5 years. No one outside of Tesla knows.

 

[tanner]

With AP you need to be aware and in control of the car. You're the driver. You can't take a nap. You're "supposed to" keep your hands on the wheel.
With SA, the car is in control. You can do whatever you want. Level 3 will be something like on-ramp to off-ramp, and if it cannot do that, it will give the driver sufficient notice to resume control of the car.


There is no AP2.0 yet. It's just speculation that there will be, and it's a term people came up with.

AP is Level 2, SA is Level 3/Level 4. (Autonomous car - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia <-- decent summary under definition, though some organization uses 4a and 4b to decipher cars that can do P2P and cars that can't)

For all we know: AP2.0 could be automatic lane changes. AP2.0 could be rear-radar to avoid being rear ended. AP2.0 could be cross traffic detection. AP2.0 could be a pack of monkeys in the trunk. AP2.0 could be 8 cameras and everything necessary for SA, and SA will come in 3-5 years. No one outside of Tesla knows.

Right. I heard a while back Elon said current AP hardware will be capable of "on-ramp to off-ramp"...

 

[Max*]

Right. I heard a while back Elon said current AP hardware will be capable of "on-ramp to off-ramp"...

If you're going one exit, with no construction, and no lane changes, AP is on-ramp to off-ramp!

 

[tanner]

If you're going one exit, with no construction, and no lane changes, AP is on-ramp to off-ramp!

Oh, geez... You can use turn signals to lane change though, right? Have you ever tried using it for city driving?

Also, just got off the phone with two different Tesla advisors, one of whom is the manager for my region. They both informed me that there are no immediate plans to implement any sort of AP 2.0 hardware and that current AP was 3 years in the making, of course they'll also still continue to roll out software updates for current tech (as expected). Moreover, the manager stated that the Model X units being delivered have the SAME AP tech as the Model S, no improved/dual camera design.

 

[Max*]

I was being hard on Tesla, I LOVE Autopilot. It makes driving on the highway so much easier. It does a great job, but it's not autonomous. Instead of concentrating on keeping lane and not rear ending the diver ahead, you're paying attention to the idiot drivers next to you and making sure AP doesn't screw up.

I have used it in the city, and it's poor. Not all city streets have lame markings (one lane, one way), it can't make turns, if the road curves too much during an intersection it looses the car in front, etc.

It works in the city, but I prefer to drive in the city. It's awesome on the highway, but if you're expecting autonomous you'll be disappointed.

We drive a lot (6 months, approaching 15k miles) and I wouldn't get a car without the equivalent of AP again.

 

[Canuck]

There were a handful of people (maybe in this thread, maybe elsewhere) that said that the reason why the Founders cars only have 1 camera visible (even though TM.com shows 2) is that TM is being sneaky and hiding the 2nd camera and once Sig's start being delivered, they'll remove a piece of plastic, and tada you have 2 forward looking cameras. I thought it was silly, but hey, what do I know?

So since sigs started being delivered, I found a pic of Bonnie's cars, and it matches the Founders cars. 1 camera. Just like the Model S.

Is there room to add a 2nd camera? Of course. But it does not appear to be there now, and hence my roll eyes smiley.

I was one of the silly speculators. Where's the picture of the single camera on Bonnie's X? I looked from here forward but couldn't find it...

Bonnie's Xcellent Adventure w/X Sig 2 - Config, Delivery, Roadtrip - Page 67

 

[Max*]

I was one of the silly speculators. Where's the picture of the single camera on Bonnie's X? I looked from here forward but couldn't find it...

Bonnie's Xcellent Adventure w/X Sig 2 - Config, Delivery, Roadtrip - Page 67

You were a few pages short.

I also looked through all the pics trying to figure out if AP2.0 is out or not. Not that'd I'd sell my car or anything like that, just mindless obsessing

Click the image and zoom in. There's a reflection over the single camera, but the other portion definitely doesn't have a camera

Bonnie's Xcellent Adventure w/X Sig 2 - Config, Delivery, Roadtrip - Page 70

- - - Updated - - -

Also, I didn't call you silly, I called the specific speculative idea silly.

 

[Canuck]

I can't make it out but I'll take your word for it. Oh well, it looks like I'll be waiting longer to upgrade. I wonder why they would have a place for it without adding it? Perhaps for expansion in the future?

Also, I didn't call you silly, I called the specific speculative idea silly.

No offence was taken. Even if you did call me silly, I've been called much worse things... :smile:

 

[Max*]

I think they had plans for two, but pulled out the second one last minute. I'm mobile, I'll zoom and crop tomorrow if I don't forget to show what I mean

 

[ecarfan]

There have been several Signature Model X's delivered already. Is it confirmed that the X has or does not have dual cameras on the Signature models?

See the thread about Bonnie taking delivery of Sig #2 yesterday. I saw no sign of dual cameras, I only saw one in the usual location.
Interestingly, I could not find the location of the forward facing radar on the X. It was invisible to my eyes. Of course the X does have forward facing radar since it has AP. I just couldn't see it. The radar is so obvious on the S, so I was surprised it was not obvious on the X. Somehow Tesla has figured out how to conceal it!

 

[Max*]

I think they had plans for two, but pulled out the second one last minute. I'm mobile, I'll zoom and crop tomorrow if I don't forget to show what I mean

As promised. Red = AP camera, same as Model S (it has a reflection over it, but you can see it). Orange = empty space for 2nd camera, but it's not there.

 

[tanner]

As promised. Red = AP camera, same as Model S (it has a reflection over it, but you can see it). Orange = empty space for 2nd camera, but it's not there.

View attachment 105134

yep. I've heard from several Tesla employees that AP 2.0 hardware is at least a couple years off.

 

[Max*]

yep. I've heard from several Tesla employees that AP 2.0 hardware is at least a couple years off.

I wouldn't believe much of what a showroom employee will tell you wrt what an engineering employee only would know.

EM stated that full autonomous cars are 3 years out. He recently revised his prediction to 2 years out. Which means that "AP2.0" or SA1.0 will have to be out hardware wise before " a couple years", otherwise they wont have time to develop the software.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk drops his prediction of full autonomous driving from 3 years to just 2 | Electrek

 

[tanner]

I wouldn't believe much of what a showroom employee will tell you wrt what an engineering employee only would know.

EM stated that full autonomous cars are 3 years out. He recently revised his prediction to 2 years out. Which means that "AP2.0" or SA1.0 will have to be out hardware wise before " a couple years", otherwise they wont have time to develop the software.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk drops his prediction of full autonomous driving from 3 years to just 2 | Electrek

Not necessarily, if you read his recent phone interview with Fortune (Elon Musk Says Tesla Vehicles Will Drive Themselves in Two Years - Fortune), you'll see they say “'We’re going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years.'” That doesn’t mean city streets will be overflowing with driverless Tesla vehicles by 2018 (coincidentally, the company’s Model 3 should be on roads by then). Musk expects regulators will lag behind the technology. He predicts it will take an additional year for regulators to determine that it’s safe and to go through an approval process. In some jurisdictions, it may take five years or more, he says."

They could EASILY just have the technology ready while they wait for regulatory approval.

 

[Max*]

Not necessarily, if you read his recent phone interview with Fortune (Elon Musk Says Tesla Vehicles Will Drive Themselves in Two Years - Fortune), you'll see they say “'We’re going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years.'” That doesn’t mean city streets will be overflowing with driverless Tesla vehicles by 2018 (coincidentally, the company’s Model 3 should be on roads by then). Musk expects regulators will lag behind the technology. He predicts it will take an additional year for regulators to determine that it’s safe and to go through an approval process. In some jurisdictions, it may take five years or more, he says."

He's predicing that he'll have Level 4 complete in 2 years. To have it complete means hardware and software. If he only puts the hardware necessary for Level 4 (full autonomy, no driver) in 2 years, he can't know how long it'll take to build out the software.

You can't demonstrate a Level 4 product to regulators, and say "here it is, it's safe. don't worry, the hardware is there, the software we haven't started on, but umn... it'll be done by the time the ink dries".

To have Level 4 in 2 years, and then 1-5 years later have it on the roads, means that in 2 years he needs to have Level 4 99.9% complete if not all 100%. In either case, he needs more hardware for that than what the current Model S has, and to collect that data (just like with AP), they need to start shipping Model S's with upgraded sensors/cameras soon (if they're not doing it already)

 

[tanner]

He's predicing that he'll have Level 4 complete in 2 years. To have it complete means hardware and software. If he only puts the hardware necessary for Level 4 (full autonomy, no driver) in 2 years, he can't know how long it'll take to build out the software.

You can't demonstrate a Level 4 product to regulators, and say "here it is, it's safe. don't worry, the hardware is there, the software we haven't started on, but umn... it'll be done by the time the ink dries".

To have Level 4 in 2 years, and then 1-5 years later have it on the roads, means that in 2 years he needs to have Level 4 99.9% complete if not all 100%. In either case, he needs more hardware for that than what the current Model S has.

My point is that they'll obviously be building a number of test units (likely in the hundreds or thousands) over the course of the next few years, but that doesn't mean they have to release the hardware before getting regulatory approval... They could just as easily demonstrate the tech/functionality without releasing anything to the public. That way they can hopefully release the hardware and software TOGETHER.

 

[Max*]

My point is that they'll obviously be building a number of test units (likely in the hundreds or thousands) over the course of the next few years, but that doesn't mean they have to release the hardware before getting regulatory approval... They could just as easily demonstrate the tech/functionality without releasing anything to the public. That way they can hopefully release the hardware and software TOGETHER.

I agree that they don't HAVE to release the hardware before regulatory approval, but if they do (like they did with AP), it gives them tens of thousands of cars equipped with Level 4 sensors, collecting and streaming data back to the mothership. It's much "cheaper" than building out a thousand prototypes, hiring 1,000 employees to drive millions of miles across the world.

My point is to demonstrate it works 100% of the time, which is what Level 4 is supposed to do, you need a lot of data. To get that lot of data, the cheapest/easier solution is to do what they did with AP and release the hardware without telling anyone, and collect data (they might be doing some of this now), and test/build your algorithms on that.

I see your point, it could happen your way and time will tell, but IMHO hardware will come very soon, and in X years we'll get the software, insuring a lot of free data collection for Tesla.

 

[tanner]

I agree that they don't HAVE to release the hardware before regulatory approval, but if they do (like they did with AP), it gives them tens of thousands of cars equipped with Level 4 sensors, collecting and streaming data back to the mothership. It's much "cheaper" than building out a thousand prototypes, hiring 1,000 employees to drive millions of miles across the world.

My point is to demonstrate it works 100% of the time, which is what Level 4 is supposed to do, you need a lot of data. To get that lot of data, the cheapest/easier solution is to do what they did with AP and release the hardware without telling anyone, and collect data (they might be doing some of this now), and test/build your algorithms on that.

I see your point, it could happen your way and time will tell, but IMHO hardware will come very soon, and in X years we'll get the software, insuring a lot of free data collection for Tesla.

Also true, as you said, it could really go either way. Also, considering the current Model X deliveries have the exact same tech as MS AP, it's hard to see refreshed AP hardware hitting production cars before the Mode 3 arrives.

 

[villhelm]

Model X specs say: "automatic emergency braking, even at highway speeds". There is no such thing in Model S? I think there has to be stereocamera for that..