Autopilot 2.0 Not Imminent Based On Production Model X Design Studio [Speculation]

[Canuck]

I'd imagine Elon did not want to announce this on September 29, 2015 when the Autopilot 1.0 was not in production (after one year since it's introduction).

I don't think that's the reason. In my opinion, Tesla put a plate over the founders' extra camera(s) in order to keep this secret since people would have held off ordering a Model S, and some would have even cancelled orders, if they saw that the Model X came with more cameras than the Model S since that means the Model S's autopilot hardware upgrade is imminent.

Elon said that the Model S and X will have the same AP capabilities so it's safe to assume that when the Model X rolls of the line with more than one front facing camera, so will the Model S (meaning same capabilities). People have turned that statement around to mean the opposite, being that the Model X will have the same one forward facing camera as the Model S but that doesn't make sense to me. I think some people just wanted to interpret it that way but what he was really saying is that the vehicles will keep up with each other when it comes to autopilot, which only makes sense, at least in my opinion.

Again, only time will tell but at least it's soon now to see if my theory is correct since deliveries begin early 2016 and I doubt we'll see the same plate on production vehicles, especially when they don't show it in the picture. I bet that's when the founders' vehicles go into service to have their plates removed. I can't imagine the Model S will be coming off the line with one camera when Elon said the Model S and X will have the same AP capabilities so my prediction is early 2016 for new auto pilot 2.0 hardware on the Model S.

That's just a guess, though. If I'm wrong, it won't be the first time. But I think my reasoning makes some sense.

 

[gsxdsm]

Take this with a grain of salt, but I've heard today (from within Tesla) that Autopilot 2.0 hardware is "around the corner" and the team is working on the plan for supporting the legacy hardware (what is currently in the field) as the software focus these days is on the 2.0 hardware.

 

[Discoducky]

Which statement are you most assuredly contradicting? The one where I said founders series don't have that:
Stereoscopic cameras on the front? <-- pic of the founders car

Or are you most assuredly contradicting that there is more than 1 camera, when I said there is more than 1 camera






Yes, that's why I said:

I'm totally agreeing with you

 

[Max*]

I'm totally agreeing with you

O, my bad then.

 

[RockinWithKids]

Take this with a grain of salt, but I've heard today (from within Tesla) that Autopilot 2.0 hardware is "around the corner" and the team is working on the plan for supporting the legacy hardware (what is currently in the field) as the software focus these days is on the 2.0 hardware.

Perhaps the only Christmas gift to myself and the bride will be a bottle of wine while ordering up a shiny new MS with 2.0 hardware.

 

[peterspd]

On the pict, I see two radas. Do you see it?

I apologize if this has been covered on this thread (I'm catching up). But it appears the Model X will have the three camera system. It is in the picture in the Model X section: Model X | Tesla Motors

View attachment 102812

I'd imagine the Model X ships with the three camera system, and the 8 camera system will be available with 5 EyeQ3 chips in 2016 or 2017. I'd imagine Elon did not want to announce this on September 29, 2015 when the Autopilot 1.0 was not in production (after one year since it's introduction).

Moving Closer to Automated Driving, Mobileye Unveils EyeQ4® System-on-Chip with its First Design Win for 2018 - Mobileye

“Today we are already preparing with one of the OEM, a first vehicle based on 8 cameras, one radar and ultrasonic around the vehicle. So this is much wider implementation of the first introduction of semi-autonomous driving and the trifocal is going to be here as we planned, but additional 4 cameras around the vehicle and one camera looking back. The system will run on 5 EyeQ3 chips and all of them will be connected.”

Supplier hints at next generation Autopilot hardware for Tesla as soon as this year | Electrek

 

[Soolim]

I don't think that's the reason. In my opinion, Tesla put a plate over the founders' extra camera(s) in order to keep this secret since people would have held off ordering a Model S, and some would have even cancelled orders, if they saw that the Model X came with more cameras than the Model S since that means the Model S's autopilot hardware upgrade is imminent.

Elon said that the Model S and X will have the same AP capabilities so it's safe to assume that when the Model X rolls of the line with more than one front facing camera, so will the Model S (meaning same capabilities). People have turned that statement around to mean the opposite, being that the Model X will have the same one forward facing camera as the Model S but that doesn't make sense to me. I think some people just wanted to interpret it that way but what he was really saying is that the vehicles will keep up with each other when it comes to autopilot, which only makes sense, at least in my opinion.

Again, only time will tell but at least it's soon now to see if my theory is correct since deliveries begin early 2016 and I doubt we'll see the same plate on production vehicles, especially when they don't show it in the picture. I bet that's when the founders' vehicles go into service to have their plates removed. I can't imagine the Model S will be coming off the line with one camera when Elon said the Model S and X will have the same AP capabilities so my prediction is early 2016 for new auto pilot 2.0 hardware on the Model S.

That's just a guess, though. If I'm wrong, it won't be the first time. But I think my reasoning makes some sense.

Interesting. Any idea how two cameras (stereoscopic) could improve AP? I hope the cameras would allow recording.

 

[gizmoboy]

Perhaps the only Christmas gift to myself and the bride will be a bottle of wine while ordering up a shiny new MS with 2.0 hardware.

FWIW (and it's not much), my DS and the service people in DFW have heard bupkis about new hardware.

 

[Max*]

Interesting. Any idea how two cameras (stereoscopic) could improve AP? I hope the cameras would allow recording.

Speculation is that it's not stereoscopic, but short range and long range. Speculation is that all other car manufacturers put stereoscopic cameras with more separation between each other.

 

[rcarpen22]

If the only change in the next evolution of hardware is an additional forward looking camera (call it AP 1.2), would the current chipset be able to handle that as an upgrade?

 

[robby]

If the only change in the next evolution of hardware is an additional forward looking camera (call it AP 1.2), would the current chipset be able to handle that as an upgrade?

Current cars have EyeQ3, which supports "two 12-bit , 640×480 color image resolution video streams." So, there is likely a free hardware interface that can be utilized. Two things that could throw a wrench at this possibility are:
1. If the rear camera is fed into EyeQ3 for some undocumented purpose, then there is no expansion room.
2. We don't know whether the MobilEye EyeQ3 software platform support the use case that Tesla has in mind for the second camera.

EyeQ® - Mobileye

 

[tanner]

Is it possible that AP 2 may be built in to current orders and just lay dormant until features are activated, much like they did with AP 1?

 

[Max*]

There have been several Signature Model X's delivered already. Is it confirmed that the X has or does not have dual cameras on the Signature models? (Founders didn't have dual cameras, though TM.com has dual cameras)

 

[RockinWithKids]

Is it possible that AP 2 may be built in to current orders and just lay dormant until features are activated, much like they did with AP 1?

I would bet my mortgage that the software will lag behind the hardware and I am just fine with that.


It is pure speculation that the v2 hardware will appear in the MS or MX in 2016, but when you start adding up all the statements by Amnon (CTO of MobilEye, Ziv (CEO of MobilEye) and Elon, it's enough to keep me on the sideline for now.


March 23, 2015: “By 2016 there’s going to be new launches by GM and Tesla as well” - Amnon Shashua of MobilEye - Brains, Minds Machines Seminar Series: Computer Vision that is changing our lives - YouTube


August 31, 2015: "First launch of it (8 cameras) is going to be 2016" - Amnon Shashu of MobilEye. - Prof. Amnon Shashua - Computer vision, wearable computing and the future of transportation - YouTube

September 9, 2015: "Today we are already preparing with one of the OEM, a first vehicle based on 8 cameras, one radar and ultrasonic around the vehicle. So this is much wider implementation of the first introduction of semi-autonomous driving and the trifocal is going to be here as we planned, but additional 4 cameras around the vehicle and one camera looking back. The system will run on 5 EyeQ3 chips and all of them will be connected.” - Ziv Aviram, CEO MobilEye - Supplier hints at next generation Autopilot hardware for Tesla as soon as this year | Electrek


November 3, 2015: “As we said, these capabilities are already implemented and will be implemented in the future semi-autonomous launches, including in 2016 by two of our OEM customers. The Tesla auto pilot feature is currently using a mono camera sensor for performing the most important understanding of the scene the visual interpretation. Our multiple camera sensor configuration launches are planned to begin as early as next year..... What we presented is Lane Keeping Assist system rather than auto pilot system. Auto pilot system is going to be presented next year, where is going to be 360 degrees coverage around the vehicle and is going to be multiple cameras with additional sensors. What we have today is just a mono camera looking forward. So it’s a very limited input that we have on the road. But importance of this launch (AP/LKA) is, Tesla is willing to push the envelope faster and more aggressively than any other OEM, and definitely this is a very important in step forward to introduce the beginning of semi-autonomous application that will start being launched next year." - Ziv Aviram, CEO MobilEye - Mobileye's (MBLY) CEO Ziv Aviram On Q3 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha


November 19, 2015: "Ramping up the Autopilot software team at Tesla to achieve generalized full autonomy. If interested, contact [email protected]." - Elon Musk via Twitter

 

[Max*]

There have been several Signature Model X's delivered already. Is it confirmed that the X has or does not have dual cameras on the Signature models? (Founders didn't have dual cameras, though TM.com has dual cameras)

Nevermind, found Bonnie's picture from her X, it's a single camera.

Unless people are speculating that the Sig's were also delivered with the 2nd camera "blocked off" like the founders cars

 

[tanner]

I would bet my mortgage that the software will lag behind the hardware and I am just fine with that.


It is pure speculation that the v2 hardware will appear in the MS or MX in 2016, but when you start adding up all the statements by Amnon (CTO of MobilEye, Ziv (CEO of MobilEye) and Elon, it's enough to keep me on the sideline for now.


March 23, 2015: “By 2016 there’s going to be new launches by GM and Tesla as well” - Amnon Shashua of MobilEye - Brains, Minds Machines Seminar Series: Computer Vision that is changing our lives - YouTube


August 31, 2015: "First launch of it (8 cameras) is going to be 2016" - Amnon Shashu of MobilEye. - Prof. Amnon Shashua - Computer vision, wearable computing and the future of transportation - YouTube

September 9, 2015: "Today we are already preparing with one of the OEM, a first vehicle based on 8 cameras, one radar and ultrasonic around the vehicle. So this is much wider implementation of the first introduction of semi-autonomous driving and the trifocal is going to be here as we planned, but additional 4 cameras around the vehicle and one camera looking back. The system will run on 5 EyeQ3 chips and all of them will be connected.” - Ziv Aviram, CEO MobilEye - Supplier hints at next generation Autopilot hardware for Tesla as soon as this year | Electrek


November 3, 2015: “As we said, these capabilities are already implemented and will be implemented in the future semi-autonomous launches, including in 2016 by two of our OEM customers. The Tesla auto pilot feature is currently using a mono camera sensor for performing the most important understanding of the scene the visual interpretation. Our multiple camera sensor configuration launches are planned to begin as early as next year..... What we presented is Lane Keeping Assist system rather than auto pilot system. Auto pilot system is going to be presented next year, where is going to be 360 degrees coverage around the vehicle and is going to be multiple cameras with additional sensors. What we have today is just a mono camera looking forward. So it’s a very limited input that we have on the road. But importance of this launch (AP/LKA) is, Tesla is willing to push the envelope faster and more aggressively than any other OEM, and definitely this is a very important in step forward to introduce the beginning of semi-autonomous application that will start being launched next year." - Ziv Aviram, CEO MobilEye - Mobileye's (MBLY) CEO Ziv Aviram On Q3 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha


November 19, 2015: "Ramping up the Autopilot software team at Tesla to achieve generalized full autonomy. If interested, contact [email protected]." - Elon Musk via Twitter

All true! If I order soon, do you think it will have the hardware when delivered in Feb?

- - - Updated - - -

Nevermind, found Bonnie's picture from her X, it's a single camera.

Unless people are speculating that the Sig's were also delivered with the 2nd camera "blocked off" like the founders cars

"'Blocked off'" - I'm assuming you're being sarcastic? LOL

 

[Max*]

"'Blocked off'" - I'm assuming you're being sarcastic? LOL

There were a handful of people (maybe in this thread, maybe elsewhere) that said that the reason why the Founders cars only have 1 camera visible (even though TM.com shows 2) is that TM is being sneaky and hiding the 2nd camera and once Sig's start being delivered, they'll remove a piece of plastic, and tada you have 2 forward looking cameras. I thought it was silly, but hey, what do I know?

So since sigs started being delivered, I found a pic of Bonnie's cars, and it matches the Founders cars. 1 camera. Just like the Model S.

Is there room to add a 2nd camera? Of course. But it does not appear to be there now, and hence my roll eyes smiley.

 

[RockinWithKids]

All true! If I order soon, do you think it will have the hardware when delivered in Feb?

I will not speculate on that.

 

[tanner]

There were a handful of people (maybe in this thread, maybe elsewhere) that said that the reason why the Founders cars only have 1 camera visible (even though TM.com shows 2) is that TM is being sneaky and hiding the 2nd camera and once Sig's start being delivered, they'll remove a piece of plastic, and tada you have 2 forward looking cameras. I thought it was silly, but hey, what do I know?

So since sigs started being delivered, I found a pic of Bonnie's cars, and it matches the Founders cars. 1 camera. Just like the Model S.

Is there room to add a 2nd camera? Of course. But it does not appear to be there now, and hence my roll eyes smiley.

Yeah, I kind of find it hard to believe too... I just wanna know whether to order a new one (in hopes it comes with AP), to wait, or to buy a CPO with AP1.... Decisions, decisions.

 

[Max*]

Yeah, I kind of find it hard to believe too... I just wanna know whether to order a new one (in hopes it comes with AP), to wait, or to buy a CPO with AP1.... Decisions, decisions.

If AP2.0 = SA1.0 (Semi Autonomous, Level 3, highway), then I would wait a few months to get it. I have my suspicions that AP2.0 = SA1.0, but that's just my unfounded guess. I don't see a point for Tesla to release an AP2.0, with more cameras, but that's still not capable of semi-autonomous driving. If they do that, they'll also have to support non-AP, AP1.0, AP2.0 and SA1.0. Otherwise, they can skip a whole set of hardware to support.

If AP2.0 only gets you better sensors for AP1.0 capability, I think AP1.0 is "good enough" for most cases right now.


<- Has Model S with AP1.0