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Autopilot 2.0 Upgrade for Exisiting Owners

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I had similar qualms before I got my 75D. With Tesla there's always an minor or even a major update down the pike and it's impossible to time your order "just right" I had 90D confirmed 2 days before they announced 70D will be 75D instead with only a 20 mile range difference. Paid the $500 change fee to bump down to 75D and not regretting it. Personally, I think the software locked 60D option is an amazing value and I would have gotten that instead, if it was available. I now think of my 75 as an unlocked 60 :p

Bottom line, the car is next level stuff. You will enjoy it, don't worry about what's coming later. Waiting for AP2, AP3, new/updated this and that only means you are not driving the dream that much longer.

Plus you can always trade in/upgrade in a couple of years when AP4.5 is out if it matters that much to you ;)

Pull the trigger and enjoy! And if you haven't used a referral on your order to get $1000 off - I here's my code, your DS should be able to add it even after the Order confirms: Referral | Tesla :oops:

Either way I will be sure to use your code.. Was waiting to add that till I decide for sure and not block someones tally
 
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One of my assumptions as a first time owner with the marketing around autopilot and software upgradeability/hardware upgradeability was that as new capabilities came one stream, I would be able to level up. Clearly it will be possible to replace windshield sensors and body panels/CPU's if needed or wanted. You do this in a car crash situation all the time. The question will be the cost. If the capability of my Tesla for autonomous driving can go from level 2 to 3 or 4, then I would pay 10 K for that (or more). I hope Tesla makes this possible.
 
One of my assumptions as a first time owner with the marketing around autopilot and software upgradeability/hardware upgradeability was that as new capabilities came one stream, I would be able to level up. Clearly it will be possible to replace windshield sensors and body panels/CPU's if needed or wanted. You do this in a car crash situation all the time.
Yes in a vehicle repair situation parts can be replaced. That does not mean that any part that might be replaced during a repair Tesla will also offer to replace that part in an undamaged vehicle. Tesla does not do that. For example, you cannot go to Tesla with a Model S built in early 2014 and say "add the forward radar and camera and replace the wiring harness in my car so I can have AP in my non AP car). Tesla will say "Sorry we do not offer that service".

I am unclear as to why you assumed that as new AP hardware was incorporated into new cars Tesla would have a program to modify older cars so they would have the new AP hardware.
Are you a New York transplant?
I am not. Native Californian. I used that NY slang to emphasize the extremely low probability (I estimate zero probability) that Tesla would modify a pre-AP car to include AP hardware.
 
It would seem to me that if Tesla could simply replace a single part (e.g. Battery, seat, mirror, etc.) then they may consider offering the upgrade. But if they have to go further and replace wiring harnesses, CPUs, hydraulics, panels, etc., then it becomes too complicated a service to offer.

The engineers in Fremont could probably accomplish that upgrade, but having to train all the SC staff across the world would be a logistical nightmare.
 
How would Tesla entice you to buy another Tesla if they kept giving you all the new features in an older car? Some updates are planned for the build they are producing and some are designed for new builds which would require the purchase of a newer model year. What sets Tesla above the rest is the first type of update that can actually add a new feature within the same hardware set that you never had when you first bought the car. I think we are getting past the revolutionary phase and entering the evolutionary phase of product development.
 
I would not assume the new AP hardware would be incorporated if Tesla did not preach this upgradeability mantra a little bit. I am not disappointed in my car in any way currently - don't get me wrong. And if it cannot be changed, that is okay. But I do feel that Tesla speaks a lot about regular upgrades and I assumed this would include hardware. I have had my car for 2 months so not as savvy as some of you multi car multi year owners.

I also feel that if Tesla has created this amazing car without the ability to replace the CPU or the sensors, then that is a failure of engineering to some degree. These are not critical features, but how hard can it be to put in some redundancy in cabling to accommodate new sensors in a car in this price (and technology) range. Most data can run over a single wire nowadays and the times of needing 8 strands per cable are fading.

Philosophically I think that the car would be cooler if you could replace the CPU with new hardware and swap out sensors/winshields/body panels/batteries as new tech comes available. Maybe it would need a trip to the main factory and 20K. Whatever.

Some of you may judge me as foolish for confusing "software" update capability with "hardware" updates. I just assumed both were possible for a price.

Would I be a little bit disappointed if the sensors were not upgradeable - yes. These are engineering issues and I do not believe that Musk's team is not capable of solving them or anticipating them. If the original S was not upgradeable in terms of hardware, would that not lead you to make the next model more modular? Tesla has broken a lot of paradigms in their manufacturing and design. Why not this one?

In the end, I leased my car and in 3 years I can pick up the next model without worries. There will also be a lot more competition in this arena at that point so who knows where you or I will end up.
 
I would not assume the new AP hardware would be incorporated if Tesla did not preach this upgradeability mantra a little bit. I am not disappointed in my car in any way currently - don't get me wrong. And if it cannot be changed, that is okay. But I do feel that Tesla speaks a lot about regular upgrades and I assumed this would include hardware. I have had my car for 2 months so not as savvy as some of you multi car multi year owners.

I also feel that if Tesla has created this amazing car without the ability to replace the CPU or the sensors, then that is a failure of engineering to some degree. These are not critical features, but how hard can it be to put in some redundancy in cabling to accommodate new sensors in a car in this price (and technology) range. Most data can run over a single wire nowadays and the times of needing 8 strands per cable are fading.

Philosophically I think that the car would be cooler if you could replace the CPU with new hardware and swap out sensors/winshields/body panels/batteries as new tech comes available. Maybe it would need a trip to the main factory and 20K. Whatever.

Some of you may judge me as foolish for confusing "software" update capability with "hardware" updates. I just assumed both were possible for a price.

Would I be a little bit disappointed if the sensors were not upgradeable - yes. These are engineering issues and I do not believe that Musk's team is not capable of solving them or anticipating them. If the original S was not upgradeable in terms of hardware, would that not lead you to make the next model more modular? Tesla has broken a lot of paradigms in their manufacturing and design. Why not this one?

In the end, I leased my car and in 3 years I can pick up the next model without worries. There will also be a lot more competition in this arena at that point so who knows where you or I will end up.
This tech is evolving daily. How can you plan for the future if you don't know what technology is going to be available? There are multiple implementations out there and all are evolving rapidly. Just recently, Tesla and MobilEye decided to part ways, so I'm sure that also alters Tesla's plans moving forward.

Building things in a modular way is great, especially when things are evolving quickly. However, you pay for it with the implementation (bigger, boxier, not as efficient, etc.). This is why you don't expect Apple to upgrade your iPhone's camera when a new one comes out. As a designer, being unrestricted by upgrades allows you to build a better product.

In the end, I think this is all harder than it appears, which is why upgrades are rare.
 
My only speculation here is that if this were a normal hw feature it would probably not happen. But with all the press surrounding AP 1.0, accidents, reducing scope in China, NTSB investigation ..., I give some probability that TM would offer (maybe even require?) some form of upgrade from AP 1.0 beyond a simile sw update. But this is just a far out possibility and I give it low single digit odds. The same odds I gave myself of getting an active spoiler on a 90D when they announced it was only for the performance cars.
 
Here is the thing for me. When I pushed the buy button last winter, Tesla was talking about autopilot being in beta. It was called autopilot and not driver assist. The assumption was that it would come out of beta and become the real thing at some point. The whole software upgrade thing further gave me the feeling that the hardware was sufficient and at some point the software would catch up to allow true autopilot. Now I accept that the next level might be pretty good with current sensors and V8.0 as implied by many threads and questionable leaks. I do feel that if within 6-8 months of my ordering a car there is a substantial hardware upgrade that was not telegraphed in advance then I have been gullible to believe the soft claims of the marketing and such. If Tesla is going to substantially revamp the hardware this quickly, then they must have had some internal inkling this was going to happen several months ago. This has been in the plans for a while. Therefore it seems reasonable to have some type of upgrade path in place and I would hope the wiring and things that are hard to retrofit are already in place.

The key to me is that Level 3 or 4 is a huge jump in functionality and presumably safety. Are current X owners relegated to permanent beta status and what does the non-beta Autopilot look like for us. When Tesla gave us a beta feature last fall, what was the implied final product that is called "autopilot" exactly?

The original S was not sold with "autopilot" as a feature. My X was marketed that way and I personally hope there is an upgrade path of some sort.
 
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Here is the thing for me. When I pushed the buy button last winter, Tesla was talking about autopilot being in beta. It was called autopilot and not driver assist. The assumption was that it would come out of beta and become the real thing at some point. The whole software upgrade thing further gave me the feeling that the hardware was sufficient and at some point the software would catch up to allow true autopilot. Now I accept that the next level might be pretty good with current sensors and V8.0 as implied by many threads and questionable leaks. I do feel that if within 6-8 months of my ordering a car there is a substantial hardware upgrade that was not telegraphed in advance then I have been gullible to believe the soft claims of the marketing and such. If Tesla is going to substantially revamp the hardware this quickly, then they must have had some internal inkling this was going to happen several months ago. This has been in the plans for a while. Therefore it seems reasonable to have some type of upgrade path in place and I would hope the wiring and things that are hard to retrofit are already in place.

The key to me is that Level 3 or 4 is a huge jump in functionality and presumably safety. Are current X owners relegated to permanent beta status and what does the non-beta Autopilot look like for us. When Tesla gave us a beta feature last fall, what was the implied final product that is called "autopilot" exactly?

The original S was not sold with "autopilot" as a feature. My X was marketed that way and I personally hope there is an upgrade path of some sort.
There is still plenty of room for improvement with the current batch of AutoPilot capable vehicles. I expect it to be significantly better a year from now without any hardware changes.

However, full autonomous driving may not be possible with the existing hardware.

Furthermore, even with the new hardware, full autonomy will not be reached for a number of years to come (software needs to catch up), so the capabilities between AP1.0 and AP2.0 will probably be indistinguishable until 2019 at the earliest.