Autopilot 2.0, what do we know about it?

[J1mbo]

Remember the original AP was supposed to be able to take the car from entry ramp to exit ramp. It's not quite there yet, so rather than try to achieve Level 3 or 4, I think that the v2 upgrade suggested in the schematics will be coming in 2016. IMO this is likely to bring better situational awareness - less false alerts - and maybe upgraded Summon to be closer to some of the driverless valet parking that other manufacturers have demo'd (like this), but not much more.

 

[DrivingTheFuture]

I think it's safe to say we know it will be freaking awesome. However after personally using the current version of AP for several hours a few weeks ago on a roadtrip, I now think of AP and machine learning quite often while I'm driving. I must say if the capability to handle complex intersections becomes available, I think I will be much more wary of trusting it initially like I did on the highway. There are SO many variables... but I trust Elon's comments on the matter and am sure they are based off the incredible things he has seen / witnessed in meetings with MobileEye.

 

[calisnow]

While I think @calisnow's conclusion could play out, I don't think it's anywhere near the confidence level where I'd change my timing on a vehicle purchase. Model 3 won't be built and sold until 2017 (to employees) and sometime in 2018 for the general public. If it's anything like the X rollout, there will be token 2017 deliveries and a slow ramp. They don't have to release AP 2.0 in the S and X until that time, assuming that part 2 truly shows a tremendous gain in that particular tech. So assuming that we see a big improvement in the part 2 reveal, and that's an assumption based solely on the words "the obvious thing," S and X sales will continue with the current suite because they can just say "this hardware will be available in the Model 3s that roll off the line."

I think @ecarfan's response wasn't generic, it was the more responsible of the two. Connecting some widely scattered dots to draw a picture is a fun and valuable exercise, but to imply others should make financial and life decisions based on those is probably not the best advice.

So what's your advice - telling people to spend their money right in front a very obvious inflection point? I use Autopilot 1.0 daily and love it - doing about 140 miles today on it - and as an owner I most strenuously advise any other potential owners to wait six months for what will most likely be the second version of the hardware. Dude - you follow this stuff closely enough to know that "the obvious thing" is not the only clue which has been dropped. The other one is that Elon himself said that the Model III reveal Part 2 will be - in his own words - "super next level." JB also said publicly that S&X will continue to be the tech leaders ahead of Model 3. Tesla's past behavior is in fact to release the hardware first and then spend many months collecting fleet data - it makes complete sense for them to release multi camera hardware 6 months to a year or more in advance of Model 3. We know current Mobileye Eyeq3 is capable of a linked, multi-SOC system. We have leaked schematics of a multicamera setup..

I think it is far more likely that AP V2 hardware -- and all future firmware upgrades that use that hardware -- will significantly extend the AP capabilities Tesla offers right now, but that hardware will be insufficient to allow full autonomous driving as I describe it above. That will require an AP V3 hardware that is at least a few years away

Very reasonable hypothesis - I like it.

Personally, unless pressed by external constraints, I would never buy hardware before an imminent inflection point. The "always improving" argument doesn't hold water because there are occasional inflection points where capability leaps beyond the usual incremental improvements. AP V2 will be one of those inflection points. Musk stated to Walt Mossberg that his end-of-year announcement would be "real big news" if he gave it now, in direct reference to whether the Model 3 would support autonomous driving. He's also stated that the S/X being the technology-leaders will always get the latest technology first. Thus, the conclusions seem fairly obvious to me.

To put it another way -- the penalty for waiting and not getting AP V2 is just ~6 months of your time.

The penalty for buying now and then seeing AP V2 hardware delivered end-of-year is resale-loss + hassle + time if you decide to sell/swap your car, or flat-out not having the feature for years if you decide to keep your car long term.

THIS

A hypothetical announcement of AP V2 doesn't necessarily mean hardware being delivered contemporaneously.... I'm not suggesting this is what will happen, but it's clearly in the realm of possibilities. ...Highways are so miserable that having AP on them covers about 95% of what I'd want anyway. So the way I see it, yes - there is some risk. But I don't see it as being either as imminent as you do, nor as much of an inflection point. We'll have to disagree on that one.

Yes, with Tesla an announcement of AP V2 most certainly does mean contemporaneously delivered hardware - we already have schematics leaked of a multi camera system. It isn't Tesla's way to sell one product while announcing the future delivery of some way better product. They do quite the opposite - improve stuff and then tell us about it. If you are a betting man I'll put down $1,000 with you right now and give you 2:1 odds ($2,000 if you win, $1,000 if I do) - and we donate the money to the charity of the winner's choice. The bet is that AP 2.0 hardware is shipping in both the Model S & X at the time of the Model 3 Reveal Part 2.

As for AP 1.0 covering 95% - yes it does - I love it. But it's so good I want to read and relax even more - which would be safer if the system had a trifocal camera which could see far into the distance for upcoming jams, more reliably read stopped traffic, etc.

We are, in my opinion, at least 80% likely to have AP 2.0 hardware in cars by the end of January at the latest - my best advice to anyone who is buying a Tesla long term is to hold their money right now.

 

[ohmman]

we donate the money to the charity of the winner's choice.

Will you tell me your charity up front?

 

[calisnow]

Will you tell me your charity up front?

LOL, lemme think. I'm generally quite skeptical of charity's ability to be efficient. I'll donate to your choice.

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

sheesh...never a clear cut path. Buy now, enjoy now, drive safe now, maybe have AP2 hardware lurking stealth mode on TODAYS MS. But...Buy in 6 months (losing the referral $1,000) (perhaps loosing out on the M60/75 deal) and get caught in the "just around the corner" inflection with tech and price rise, maybe then the Dec MS will have lurking hardware. (software is long off - got it...just wondering how to snag V2 hardware)

I'm so glad to have met you guys....I've been flip flopping and its good to know it is not just me who can't figure this out.

 

[Saghost]

sheesh...never a clear cut path. Buy now, enjoy now, drive safe now, maybe have AP2 hardware lurking stealth mode on TODAYS MS. But...Buy in 6 months (losing the referral $1,000) (perhaps loosing out on the M60/75 deal) and get caught in the "just around the corner" inflection with tech and price rise, maybe then the Dec MS will have lurking hardware. (software is long off - got it...just wondering how to snag V2 hardware)

I'm so glad to have met you guys....I've been flip flopping and its good to know it is not just me who can't figure this out.

I've been there. I eventually made peace with buy-it-now. I'm pretty sure that if new AP hardware comes before the end of the year, it'll be upgradeable on at least the X - there's no way Tesla wants to deal with folks who waited three years for a car and it became obsolete in six months.

Also, it'll probably be several months after the hardware release before the new cars can do anything the older ones can't - remember all the wonderful features the original AP cars had at launch?

I think it was just speed limit warning, lane warning, and auto high beams...

 

[ohmman]

My Model S has no AP at all. But I love it all the same, and only regret not getting it sooner. I like it better than our brand spanking new Model X with AP and all the bells and whistles. So there's that.

That said, I don't blame anyone for waiting. I just can't feel good telling you which way to lean. My personal opinion is that it's not quite so obvious, but I get that people disagree.

 

[buckerine]

So what's your advice - telling people to spend their money right in front a very obvious inflection point? I use Autopilot 1.0 daily and love it - doing about 140 miles today on it - and as an owner I most strenuously advise any other potential owners to wait six months for what will most likely be the second version of the hardware. Dude - you follow this stuff closely enough to know that "the obvious thing" is not the only clue which has been dropped. The other one is that Elon himself said that the Model III reveal Part 2 will be - in his own words - "super next level." JB also said publicly that S&X will continue to be the tech leaders ahead of Model 3. Tesla's past behavior is in fact to release the hardware first and then spend many months collecting fleet data - it makes complete sense for them to release multi camera hardware 6 months to a year or more in advance of Model 3. We know current Mobileye Eyeq3 is capable of a linked, multi-SOC system. We have leaked schematics of a multicamera setup..



Very reasonable hypothesis - I like it.



THIS



Yes, with Tesla an announcement of AP V2 most certainly does mean contemporaneously delivered hardware - we already have schematics leaked of a multi camera system. It isn't Tesla's way to sell one product while announcing the future delivery of some way better product. They do quite the opposite - improve stuff and then tell us about it. If you are a betting man I'll put down $1,000 with you right now and give you 2:1 odds ($2,000 if you win, $1,000 if I do) - and we donate the money to the charity of the winner's choice. The bet is that AP 2.0 hardware is shipping in both the Model S & X at the time of the Model 3 Reveal Part 2.

As for AP 1.0 covering 95% - yes it does - I love it. But it's so good I want to read and relax even more - which would be safer if the system had a trifocal camera which could see far into the distance for upcoming jams, more reliably read stopped traffic, etc.

We are, in my opinion, at least 80% likely to have AP 2.0 hardware in cars by the end of January at the latest - my best advice to anyone who is buying a Tesla long term is to hold their money right now.

The best advice in this thread is in the post above. Just follow it. Unless you MUST have a Tesla now now now now now, it doesn't hurt to wait until at least Elon makes his self-proclaimed big announcement to "do the obvious thing" at the end of this year.

 

[GSP]

I think that for the people that already have a Tesla it makes sense to wait, especially if it has AP 1.0.

For those of us that do not own a Tesla yet, there is a much higher "cost" to wait. The ideal thing, if affordable, would be to get one now, and upgrade in 1-2 years. Keeping cars for 10 years is not what it used to be.

GSP

 

[GoTslaGo]

So what's your advice - telling people to spend their money right in front a very obvious inflection point? I use Autopilot 1.0 daily and love it - doing about 140 miles today on it - and as an owner I most strenuously advise any other potential owners to wait six months for what will most likely be the second version of the hardware. Dude - you follow this stuff closely enough to know that "the obvious thing" is not the only clue which has been dropped. The other one is that Elon himself said that the Model III reveal Part 2 will be - in his own words - "super next level." JB also said publicly that S&X will continue to be the tech leaders ahead of Model 3. Tesla's past behavior is in fact to release the hardware first and then spend many months collecting fleet data - it makes complete sense for them to release multi camera hardware 6 months to a year or more in advance of Model 3. We know current Mobileye Eyeq3 is capable of a linked, multi-SOC system. We have leaked schematics of a multicamera setup..



Very reasonable hypothesis - I like it.



THIS



Yes, with Tesla an announcement of AP V2 most certainly does mean contemporaneously delivered hardware - we already have schematics leaked of a multi camera system. It isn't Tesla's way to sell one product while announcing the future delivery of some way better product. They do quite the opposite - improve stuff and then tell us about it. If you are a betting man I'll put down $1,000 with you right now and give you 2:1 odds ($2,000 if you win, $1,000 if I do) - and we donate the money to the charity of the winner's choice. The bet is that AP 2.0 hardware is shipping in both the Model S & X at the time of the Model 3 Reveal Part 2.

As for AP 1.0 covering 95% - yes it does - I love it. But it's so good I want to read and relax even more - which would be safer if the system had a trifocal camera which could see far into the distance for upcoming jams, more reliably read stopped traffic, etc.

We are, in my opinion, at least 80% likely to have AP 2.0 hardware in cars by the end of January at the latest - my best advice to anyone who is buying a Tesla long term is to hold their money right now.

Ok, time to put it in the prediction thread:

Prediction Thread - "You Called It"

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

I think that for the people that already have a Tesla it makes sense to wait, especially if it has AP 1.0.

For those of us that do not own a Tesla yet, there is a much higher "cost" to wait. The ideal thing, if affordable, would be to get one now, and upgrade in 1-2 years. Keeping cars for 10 years is not what it used to be.

GSP

OK - we all agree that AP2 will be a quantum step, and that they may send it out in stealth mode first - probably on MS. So, If I Buy a MS60 in July will the car have AP2 wiring? If I buy that same car in Dec, will it be Ap2 wired? calisnow is betting by the end of Jan. When can I buy a MS and get AP2 wiring?

 

[GoTslaGo]

I've never leased a car so pardon my ignorance.

What about leasing? Could someone lease an AP 1.0 Tesla (now), then when 2.0 comes out trade their lease in for a newer 2.0? How, and could that work? Is there a substantial penalty?

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

Leasing is very much like buying - every month your car has depreciated another notch. On a lease, that depreciation is calculated at day 1. On a purchase, the market sets the depreciation. On any given day, you can sell you car (lease or loan or purchase) at the market rate. If you owe more than you sell it for, you have to pay up. As I look at lease depreciation, they are dropping a bit faster than the market, so you will have a penalty. Depending on who wrote the lease, there may be a month or two penalty fee on top of market loss.

 

[calisnow]

New article released July 5 on Technobuffalo claims a source in or near Tesla says Autopilot 2.0 is coming "this year." Tesla Autopilot 2.0 is coming this year

 

[Cosmacelf]

Cool. Reading between the lines, sounds like Autopilot 2.0 hardware cars will ship sometime this year, but the software for AP 2.0 won't get downloaded until mid next year...

 

[tslabro]

No way! I don't think its gonna be safe the autopilot feature. Looking at the last crash which caused a death of a car owner plus just heard the news of a gallry owner surviving the car crash. We can't say how safe it will be to sustain this feature. Elon Musk should focus on completing the production overheads which has already made investors furious and brought tsla down more than 1%.

 

[Cnasty]

I am torn by this news as I was set to order this week.

I know its a significant update but they won't stop supporting the first generation auto pilot I would guess, correct?

Maybe a bad assumption on my part.

 

[badbot]

Leasing is very much like buying - every month your car has depreciated another notch. On a lease, that depreciation is calculated at day 1. On a purchase, the market sets the depreciation. On any given day, you can sell you car (lease or loan or purchase) at the market rate. If you owe more than you sell it for, you have to pay up. As I look at lease depreciation, they are dropping a bit faster than the market, so you will have a penalty. Depending on who wrote the lease, there may be a month or two penalty fee on top of market loss.

@AZ
As I see the issues you are juggling $1000 find out the last day date possible.
Wait for AP2 announcement
I think S configuration to delivery lag is from 1-2 months
It will likely be after your birthday
Get your reservation in time for the $1000. pay and configure.
I think at that time you can ask for a delivery date, Be sure to confirm That all this is correct with tesla

And see if the 200 amp service for your house is close to the price for 100 amp for a few bucks you get room to grow.

 

[Atom]

I believe we will have a similar development with model 3 vs X,S in 2017 as model X and S last year: When 3 is ready for delivery, the new S and Xs produced will get new/revised hardware ready for a 2.0 version of autonomous drivers assistant, etc. Tesla will try to close the gap more than what software updates allow today (the 8 probably soon this/next month, 9 later in autumn/winter and maybe 10 early spring/summer 2017 may come before that). All these incremental additions to todays software will probably be very useful when the model 3 (and S and X) arrives with new hardware autumn 2017.

So what will be the changes? Just more speculations, but maybe: Since goal is total self drive everywhere (version 3.0 or 4.0? in 2020/21?), we will both need semi-autonomous drive in city-streets and real, full autopilot in highways rather soon, maybe within autumn 2017 (2.0 and 10 in model 3): Sequences with full autopilot may have a starting point when entering registered highway. Sequences with semi-autonomous (hands on wheel) starts when leaving highway. I believe learning capacities in program from 9.0 or 10.0 will be the new feature (programmed drive and learn, like programming events from a start to stop, recording frequent used routes), a system that gives the computer inputs from past driving, present real time driving, google map and signs in a very safe autonomous driving behavior. It may open up for a message to the driver; the car may say "i know this road 95 %, you may drive hands off until further notice".

I think also Tesla will have to make sure the driver is aware of and has fully understood system limitations. Maybe it needs a programmed learning for the driver as a "key" to use the system 100 % autonomous, sort of a 5-10 minutes test when new program is ready for use. Until the test is taken, you drive with the older version.

Just some thoughts this morning.