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Autopilot 2.0

Discussion in 'Tesla Motors' started by calisnow, Jul 5, 2016.

  1. calisnow

    calisnow Active Member

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    For what it's worth this just dropped this afternoon and Technobuffalo claims it has an anonymous source in or close to Tesla:

    "Tesla Autopilot 2.0 is coming this year" "

    "A source close to Tesla Motors, on the condition of anonymity, has confirmed that Tesla Autopilot 2.0 is coming soon. Prototype Model S and Model X units are already operating in the wild sporting two forward facing cameras, something other outlets have reported on as well, which may indicate part of the new hardware to take advantage of Autopilot 2.0’s additional features.

    The dual camera system is capable of recognizing and reacting to stop signs and traffic lights with no driver input,” our source explained. Tesla’s autopilot currently needs a car in front of it in order to automatically slow down or stop. In other words, a Tesla can’t currently just stop itself at a light or a stop sign, which is why the added cameras may be required. If Autopilot 2.0 does indeed read and react to traffic lights and stop signs, it would bring Tesla’s cars closer to autonomous driving.

    Tesla’s current test vehicles with Autopilot 2.0 are running “very beta” software that was likely the precursor to v8.0, our source explained."

    Tesla Autopilot 2.0 is coming this year
     
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  2. AZ Desert Driver

    AZ Desert Driver Genesis - The Beginning - MS60D in its nest

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    And the question is "when". I'm placing my order for a MS this week, and asking for delivery Sept. Will that be enough time to get the AP2 wiring harness? perhaps the full ap2?
     
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  3. calisnow

    calisnow Active Member

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    If Tesla continues to behave in the future like they always have in the past there will be no upgrade path. I do not think they have ever released a "wiring harness" that was later upgradeable to something else - but maybe I'm mistaken?

    Maybe this time will be different, I dunno. If I were in your shoes and I had functional transportation I would definitely specify a late December/early January delivery, not September. We are *this* close - I think it's silly not to wait 90 more days for what is likely going to be a huge leap forward in functionality and safety that will pay dividends to you for years to come.

    If anything, I believe the fatality will push Tesla to get the next generation out sooner rather than later. Tesla really needs some good news to get people past the Solar City/fatality/declining delivery mountain of negative press.
     
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  4. TaoJones

    TaoJones Beyond Driven

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    Well... nerts.

    If the article is accurate, then the question becomes:

    Will there be a retrofit available for AP1.0 cars?

    Elon did say that traffic light and stop sign reaction would be available within the year (six months ago), so that tracks. However, nobody followed up at the time to confirm that this new functionality would be delivered for cars with AP1.0.

    This would of course explain why that clarification has not been forthcoming.

    Nerts a second time.
     
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  5. AZ Desert Driver

    AZ Desert Driver Genesis - The Beginning - MS60D in its nest

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    Nerts...isn't that the thing you used to insert grease into a ball joint?
     
  6. calisnow

    calisnow Active Member

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    Normally I would say "no." On the other hand, we do know that EyeQ3 was designed to be capable of processing input from multiple cameras - I believe up to three cameras actually.

    Given the fatality, I suppose it's possible that Tesla could be motivated to offer a minor retrofit offering some additional capability - a stereo camera perhaps? Trifocal camera? This wouldn't be full autonomy of course but it could add to the car's capabilities for sensing long range threats and add a wider angle to the front vision.

    We now have two highly publicized autopilot accidents involving failure to see large objects blocking the forward path - the truck-in-the-lane collision in Europe and now the fatality in Florida. If there is a way to offer a cost effective upgrade perhaps Tesla will do it.

    I am planning on trading in my current AP 1.0 car whenever full autonomy is available - but if Tesla told me tomorrow that for a few thousand dollars I could add a layer of additional accuracy in detecting stopped objects in front of the car then I would pony up the cash immediately.

    Dunno - my guess is still no but anything's possible.
     
  7. theslimshadyist

    theslimshadyist NashVegas!

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    I just ordered my car for a December 15th delivery. About how long prior to that date am I able to make a change to my config should AP 2.0 arrive?
     
  8. TaoJones

    TaoJones Beyond Driven

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    #8 TaoJones, Jul 5, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 5, 2016
    NEEEEEERRRRRRRDS! (Revenge of the Nerds voice)

    Zoinks! (Scooby Doo/Shaggy voice)

    Neither one of those either, eh?

    Understood, and not to pick nerts, or zerks as the case may be, but at present we're at Level 2 of the 5 levels of vehicle autonomy. The traffic light and stop sign reaction thing might get us to Level 3, but that's it.

    Still a looooong way to go before Elon's prognostication of summoning the chariot from coast to coast becomes a practical reality. As in "if I took better care of myself I might live long enough to see it" kinda long way - not as in this year or next.
     
  9. Todd Burch

    Todd Burch Electron Pilot

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    The current hardware is absolutely capable of recognizing and stopping at red lights/stop signs, per a presentation by MobilEye.

    My gut feeling is that I don't trust a word in this article.
     
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  10. msnow

    msnow Active Member

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    Same here "Technobuffalo"? Unnamed sources? Double red flag BS meter going off. Also the 8.0 rumor wasn't tied to new sensor technology and also seemed imminent this new article says they are connected. It's all obviously speculation.
     
  11. AZ Desert Driver

    AZ Desert Driver Genesis - The Beginning - MS60D in its nest

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    theslimshadyist,Today at 2:50 PM said he ordered today with a Dec delivery. I will be ordering my MS very soon,, with a Dec delivery also .
    So my question is - IF AP@ is announced in -say Sept- can one ask for an acceleration in production date?
    The alternative is to pick a Sept delivery date, and then try to postpone it. I think the schedulers would hate that. Esp if one was trying to see Q3 production goals.
    But Can one accelerate?
     
  12. RobInAZ

    RobInAZ Member

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    I also have a model s order in with december delivery :)

    My guess is that they won't announce anything until it is available. If they do, it could stall sales.

    I'm tempted to push mine back until January, but the drop down box for delivery only shows me to December.
     
  13. buckerine

    buckerine Member

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    I've requested delivery next March specifically because it seems like we're on the cusp of some big enhancements.
     
  14. msnow

    msnow Active Member

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    Not sure you can keep up with or time the advances. How do think the current "refreshers" feel about AP 2.0 if it comes out in a few months or what about Luducrous upgrade people when Maximum Plaid comes out. 100 kWh, 120 kWh. All of those have been rumored to be in the works.
     
  15. AZ Desert Driver

    AZ Desert Driver Genesis - The Beginning - MS60D in its nest

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    Im not sure when this speculation fun becomes self mutilation torture. How soon is soon? How many iterations are enough before it is good enough? gaggghh. is it fun yet?
     
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  16. Saghost

    Saghost Active Member

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    I'm pretty sure the forum discussion about power folding mirror retrofit was talking about some cars being prewired for it and others not.

    Also note that the S and X installations for the AP camera are not identical - the X is offset to one side, with an empty spot beside it. Not sure if this is significant - especially since the refresh S continues with the original installation.
     
  17. jlund

    jlund Member

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    I've spent [wasted?] a lot of time trying to determine if Tesla will offer AP 2.0 retrofit ability to AP 1.0 cars, or even a subset of them. There are many forces at play here:

    1) is it even possible? This depends heavily on pre-wiring and what sensors/cameras are going to be used for AP 2.0

    2) will not providing AP 2.0 retrofit hurt model S resale value?: I can wrap my head around the fact that even though the Model3 offers similar base performance/range for half the price as the S, it might not hurt the S value too much. This holds true for comparing other manufactures who have a small car offering and a luxury big sedan equivalent. *However*, imagine buying a model S today with AP highway capabilities, and roughly 12 months from now, people start getting a model3 with near close fully autonomous functionality. for half the price!!

    3) will providing a AP 2.0 retrofit hurt model S amount of sales next year? Tesla has a history of offering massive new features with every passing year. why upgrade if you can upgrade something so big as AP 2.0 on your current car? Though I'm sure there are lots of 2012-late2014 owners who may finally make the leap for AP 2.0. I don't think this would be a huge concern.

    4) what happens if road safe regulations concludes that AP 1.0 'beta' is more dangerous than AP 2.0 on highways? I say highways because AP 1.0 and 2.0 will both presumably work on highways. Will Tesla be forced to disable AP 1.0 'beta mode' entirely for current cars? Limiting hardware by software locking is not new to Tesla but taking away features previously offered, would be. This could be lawsuit hell or require extremely expensive AP 2.0 retrofitting if Tesla didn't consider a path for retrofit ahead of time.

    I feel for Tesla on this one. It doesn't sound like an easy decision. I'm too scared to gamble (buy now) in case 2.0 shocks us this Fall like 1.0 did in Fall of 2014.
     
  18. brkaus

    brkaus Member

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    The current referral credit program ends soon...
     
  19. jacobp

    jacobp Member

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    Not entirely true. When i ordered my car the power mirrors were not an option. After i ordered the car but before i took delivery the mirrors became available. When i later upgraded my car to get the power mirrors, my upgrade cost was less than what i paid when i upgraded my wife's older Model S, because my car had the wiring for the power mirrors pre-installed.
     
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  20. robby

    robby Member

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    If the only hardware difference in AP2 is an additional front camera, it's unfathomable to me that they would not offer a retrofit. The history that people are citing to argue a retrofit won't happen is meaningless because going from nothing to AP1 would have been a much different and larger beast -- new braking, drilling not just into bumpers but also welded panels, tearing up and rerunning all floor upholstery. Adding a second camera is not nearly so invasive. Less invasive, in fact, than other retrofits they have offered (parking sensors, rear jumpseats).
     
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