Autopilot 2.0

[TaoJones]

Well, there could be degrees as well. For example, there have been multiple reports that, per MobilEye, traffic light and stop sign reaction is possible with AP1.0. On the other hand, we know that already a new tri-camera ships with new Model S as of a few months ago. Further, it is believed that full AP2.0 will include more cameras and sensors.

So - perhaps AP1.0 with an AP2.0 retrofit of some but not all new hardware will provide a subset of all of the new functionality.

There's a bit of blurring here as well between software and hardware. Any software enhancements between now and the full AP2.0 suite could well be referred to as AP1.5 or just firmware 8.0. So there's that. This year, we get the software mods, and next year or in 2018 as MobilEye suggests, AP2.0 (full system) is incorporated into production.

 

[MP3Mike]

If the only hardware difference in AP2 is an additional front camera, it's unfathomable to me that they would not offer a retrofit. The history that people are citing to argue a retrofit won't happen is meaningless because going from nothing to AP1 would have been a much different and larger beast -- new braking, drilling not just into bumpers but also welded panels, tearing up and rerunning all floor upholstery. Adding a second camera is not nearly so invasive. Less invasive, in fact, than other retrofits they have offered (parking sensors, rear jumpseats).

It depends if both, or all three, of the cameras fit in the hole in the windshield, or if a new windshield design will be necessary.

 

[msnow]

Well, there could be degrees as well. For example, there have been multiple reports that, per MobilEye, traffic light and stop sign reaction is possible with AP1.0. On the other hand, we know that already a new tri-camera ships with new Model S as of a few months ago. Further, it is believed that full AP2.0 will include more cameras and sensors.

So - perhaps AP1.0 with an AP2.0 retrofit of some but not all new hardware will provide a subset of all of the new functionality.

There's a bit of blurring here as well between software and hardware. Any software enhancements between now and the full AP2.0 suite could well be referred to as AP1.5 or just firmware 8.0. So there's that. This year, we get the software mods, and next year or in 2018 as MobilEye suggests, AP2.0 (full system) is incorporated into production.

I had never heard that there is a "tri-camera" in the refreshed cars before. Are you positive about that? Link?

 

[TaoJones]

I had never heard that there is a "tri-camera" in the refreshed cars before. Are you positive about that? Link?

Ordinarily, I let people do their own searching for verification, but 30 seconds in the search field did bring it up - so here ya go:

New Tesla Model S Has 2nd Triple Cam For Autopilot & Pedestrian Noise Unit

Edit: Ugh - to which evidently 9 more pages of posts have been added. Sifting through them now to see if there's anything new...

Edit part deux: By page 13, after meandering off in about 8 different directions, the consensus of the thread is that there are updated wiring schematics, but nobody has actually *looked* to see if current wiring matches the updated diagram(s). And, despite the updated design, nobody has seen one of the new cameras yet *in* a car. So this begs the question - will the upcoming software updates enable traffic light and stop sign reaction, or will Tesla elect to wait until hardware changes are incorporated into production?

Which brings us full circle back to: Will the changes necessary for traffic light and stop sign reaction be retrofittable to AP1.0 cars?

And so it goes.

 

[msnow]

Ordinarily, I let people do their own searching for verification, but 30 seconds in the search field did bring it up - so here ya go:

New Tesla Model S Has 2nd Triple Cam For Autopilot & Pedestrian Noise Unit

Edit: Ugh - to which evidently 9 more pages of posts have been added. Sifting through them now to see if there's anything new...

Yeah, I'm subscribed to that thread and even commented on it. Unless there's something new this was speculation based on some questionable schematic and speculation. I was looking for more of an authoritative source if you have one because as far as I can tell it's the same camera we have.

 

[TaoJones]

Yeah, I'm subscribed to that thread and even commented on it. Unless there's something new this was speculation based on some questionable schematic and speculation. I was looking for more of an authoritative source if you have one because as far as I can tell it's the same camera we have.

Same here - also added a second edit whilst it looks like our posts crossed. Normally, I like Zach's sourcing, but this time, *especially* because of recent events, I can absolutely understand why they would elect to defer additional AP functionality until the underlying hardware is updated. And *that* lessens the chance of a retrofit making sense , since at least for me, the triggers associated with buying a new Model S include exactly two things: AP2.0 and a 100+kW battery. The moment the 2nd of those two achievements is announced, my order gets placed.

 

[calisnow]

Not sure you can keep up with or time the advances. How do think the current "refreshers" feel about AP 2.0 if it comes out in a few months or what about Luducrous upgrade people when Maximum Plaid comes out. 100 kWh, 120 kWh. All of those have been rumored to be in the works.

If one has been paying attention one can time AP 2.0 - or at least set a likelihood of an outer bound on it because of public hints with included timeframes dropped by Musk, JB and Mobileye's executives.

 

[msnow]

If one has been paying attention one can time AP 2.0 - or at least set a likelihood of an outer bound on it because of public hints with included timeframes dropped by Musk, JB and Mobileye's executives.

What's your guess on timing?

 

[MarkS22]

Elon Musk talking about Autopilot on 1.0 hardware in 2015: “This version of Autopilot does not take into account stop signs and red lights, but a future software update will.”

Source: Tesla’s Cars Now Drive Themselves, Kinda (Wired Magazine)

This is also reaffirmed when Wired discussed the launch, saying "a camera with image recognition capability to spot traffic signs and lights, as well as pedestrians."

Source: The Model D Is Tesla’s Most Powerful Car Ever, Plus Autopilot

 

[Redmiata98]

Soon!

 

[calisnow]

What's your guess on timing?

My guess is December. So, given their problems with deadlines I'll wager February at the absolute latest for hardware to be shipping in cars - I make no prediction whatsoever on when software will be ready for said hardware. Reasoning is:

• Musk - Says M3 reveal "part 2" is at the end of the year. He has said the interior will make more sense at that time (ie the center mount screen) and I *think* he said that the reveal is going to blow everyone away.
• Musk - In an interview when asked if M3 will be self driving responded that he shouldn't answer that question now, then when pressed further said Tesla will do "the obvious thing."
• JB - Said two relevant things: 1 - M3 will showcase Tesla's "next generation" technology. Is that necessarily AP? No - could be battery or drivetrain in addition to AP. 2 - JB has said S/X will continue to lead the way in technology and Tesla will not hold back for M3.
• Mobileye - has been saying publicly for over a year that a multicamera EyeQ3 system is coming from an OEM in 2016. Their latest prediction for an 8 camera system is 2017 however.
• Mobileye - Has also specifically said a multi-camera EyeQ3 system will ship in a car before EyeQ4. Each EyeQ3 was designed to handle multiple camera inputs and was also designed to network with other EyeQ3's. So Tesla does not have to wait for EyeQ4 to ship before going multi-camera in the S/X.

Given the above I condense the reasoning into:

Tesla will reveal more capable autopilot in part 2 of the M3 reveal, coming at the end of the year. Since Tesla does not want to Osborne the Model S they must simultaneously ship a more capable Autopilot in Model S/X, or even prior to the M3 reveal. The argument that Tesla will hold out the new autopilot for M3 is countered by JB's public statement that Tesla will not do that. As for whether a more capable system is possible we know that it is with currently available EyeQ3 SOC's.

This is how I arrive at an outer bounds end-of-2016 estimate for AP 2.0 hardware to ship in S/X. I don't predict it will be capable of full autonomy or even that the software will be ready.

 

[calisnow]

Finally, I think the negative AP publicity is going to put even more internal pressure to rapidly get hardware & software in the cars which can more reliably detect stopped objects.

What better way to beat politicians and regulators to the anti-autopilot punch and shut up the media than to iterate as fast as possible and show the world that these particular corner cases won't happen again? I wouldn't be surprised if Musk has moved the internal deadlines forward.

The regulators can't act immediately even if they want to - if Tesla can beat them to it they can appear to be on top of the situation.

 

[MarkS22]

Finally, I think the negative AP publicity is going to put even more internal pressure to rapidly get hardware & software in the cars which can more reliably detect stopped objects.

What better way to beat politicians and regulators to the anti-autopilot punch and shut up the media than to iterate as fast as possible and show the world that these particular corner cases won't happen again? I wouldn't be surprised if Musk has moved the internal deadlines forward.

The regulators can't act immediately even if they want to - if Tesla can beat them to it they can appear to be on top of the situation.

If this can't be done with software, and it's a serious enough safety issue, it almost makes you wonder if they'd be more inclined to allow a retrofit. To be clear, I'm not suggesting free or allowing an upgrade path to full autonomy. But if it means, for example, giving the option to swap out a camera with better dynamic range to alleviate glare issues, it would be a great gesture to existing owners.

 

[buckerine]

My guess is December. So, given their problems with deadlines I'll wager February at the absolute latest for hardware to be shipping in cars - I make no prediction whatsoever on when software will be ready for said hardware. Reasoning is:

• Musk - Says M3 reveal "part 2" is at the end of the year. He has said the interior will make more sense at that time (ie the center mount screen) and I *think* he said that the reveal is going to blow everyone away.
• Musk - In an interview when asked if M3 will be self driving responded that he shouldn't answer that question now, then when pressed further said Tesla will do "the obvious thing."
• JB - Said two relevant things: 1 - M3 will showcase Tesla's "next generation" technology. Is that necessarily AP? No - could be battery or drivetrain in addition to AP. 2 - JB has said S/X will continue to lead the way in technology and Tesla will not hold back for M3.
• Mobileye - has been saying publicly for over a year that a multicamera EyeQ3 system is coming from an OEM in 2016. Their latest prediction for an 8 camera system is 2017 however.
• Mobileye - Has also specifically said a multi-camera EyeQ3 system will ship in a car before EyeQ4. Each EyeQ3 was designed to handle multiple camera inputs and was also designed to network with other EyeQ3's. So Tesla does not have to wait for EyeQ4 to ship before going multi-camera in the S/X.

Given the above I condense the reasoning into:

Tesla will reveal more capable autopilot in part 2 of the M3 reveal, coming at the end of the year. Since Tesla does not want to Osborne the Model S they must simultaneously ship a more capable Autopilot in Model S/X, or even prior to the M3 reveal. The argument that Tesla will hold out the new autopilot for M3 is countered by JB's public statement that Tesla will not do that. As for whether a more capable system is possible we know that it is with currently available EyeQ3 SOC's.

This is how I arrive at an outer bounds end-of-2016 estimate for AP 2.0 hardware to ship in S/X. I don't predict it will be capable of full autonomy or even that the software will be ready.

Very reasonable estimates. Well done. And I've placed my order and scheduled a late Q1 2017 delivery for precisely this reason.

 

[xav-]

And the question is "when". I'm placing my order for a MS this week, and asking for delivery Sept. Will that be enough time to get the AP2 wiring harness? perhaps the full ap2?

Elon musk stated there would be an event dedicated to the autopilot at the end of the year. The current system is outdated (almost 2 years old). It will happen at EOY worst case scenario in my view.

I am waiting until the autopilot event at the end of the year that Elon Musk talked about.. Or I am waiting for the 3.. but I am not ordering the S with AP in its current form..

 

[calisnow]

If this can't be done with software, and it's a serious enough safety issue, it almost makes you wonder if they'd be more inclined to allow a retrofit. To be clear, I'm not suggesting free or allowing an upgrade path to full autonomy. But if it means, for example, giving the option to swap out a camera with better dynamic range to alleviate glare issues, it would be a great gesture to existing owners.

Boy that sure puts them in a tough decision scenario - the press will damn them if they do or if they don't.

Option 1 - No retrofit. Headline: "Tesla says for safe autopilot you must buy a new car."
Option 2 - Free retrofit. Headline: "Tesla tacitly acknowledges that their autopilot is dangerous. Why do they gamble with our lives?"
Option 3 - Charge for retrofit. Headline: "Tesla acknowledges their autopilot is dangerous, and makes customers pay to fix their sloppy engineering."

 

[JeffreyY]

I don't recall Elon mentioning an AP event at year end. Link?

 

[TaoJones]

I don't recall Elon mentioning an AP event at year end. Link?

What did your review of his Twitter feed, his comments from quarterly meetings, a forum thread search, or a Google search produce in that regard?

 

[krazineurons]

And the question is "when". I'm placing my order for a MS this week, and asking for delivery Sept. Will that be enough time to get the AP2 wiring harness? perhaps the full ap2?

My MX order locks in tonight and rather than being excited, I am having a sleepless night wondering the same on what should I do with my order.

This article albeit rumor sure has put my thoughts in a disarray and given tesla's history of not retrofitting major upgrades it only makes sense to wait and watch.

Delaying the delivery might mean you lose Alliant's exceptional interest rate of 1.49% on qualifying credit (their current deal ends on 7/15).

We could also argue that since tesla has stopped RVG on all financing last week onwards, all cars that are currently coming off production line are already enabled with new hardware and thus tesla doesn't have to protect the resale value of these card as it knows they will hold value.

 

[benemac]

And the question is "when". I'm placing my order for a MS this week, and asking for delivery Sept. Will that be enough time to get the AP2 wiring harness? perhaps the full ap2?

We are thinking of upgrading our car soon as well. But I've been waiting for something official. I saw the story earlier today and thought maybe we could order and set delivery for October. If it comes out earlier we can push it up. Or we could push it back if it hasn't been released.

The one thing that I find interesting is the comment Tesla made regarding how many cars they will deliver in the second half of the year. Given that they haven't met their estimates for a while, it's interesting that they feel they can deliver 50,000 in 6 months. But if a new AP system was released, that might accelerate upgrades and new orders which will get them to that delivery mark.