Autopilot 2.0

[calisnow]

We could also argue that since tesla has stopped RVG on all financing last week onwards, all cars that are currently coming off production line are already enabled with new hardware and thus tesla doesn't have to protect the resale value of these card as it knows they will hold value.

Losing the RVG is puzzling to me. If Tesla is confident about the value of the cars then the rational move is to keep the guarantee in place since it provides a benefit to the consumer and also costs Tesla nothing. The only reason to remove the guarantee is if in fact the cars are not holding resale. I think.

 

[xav-]

Boy that sure puts them in a tough decision scenario - the press will damn them if they do or if they don't.

Option 1 - No retrofit. Headline: "Tesla says for safe autopilot you must buy a new car."
Option 2 - Free retrofit. Headline: "Tesla tacitly acknowledges that their autopilot is dangerous. Why do they gamble with our lives?"
Option 3 - Charge for retrofit. Headline: "Tesla acknowledges their autopilot is dangerous, and makes customers pay to fix their sloppy engineering."

I hope for no option 1 for the many owners here! As a prospective owner I won't take any chances. You make a rational argument that option 1 may be unlikely though. I hope musk will clarify soon.

I think that option 1/ will open the case for lawsuits which IMO would be justifiable if AP in its current form happens to be unsafe, a claim which by the way many owners made in this forum before the fatal crash from last week was even disclosed.

My 2 cents. Thanks to those who convinced me to wait for my order.. I'd be spending money to cancel right now.. Or change delivery date to January or something if it's free...

 

[xav-]

My MX order locks in tonight and rather than being excited, I am having a sleepless night wondering the same on what should I do with my order.

This article albeit rumor sure has put my thoughts in a disarray and given tesla's history of not retrofitting major upgrades it only makes sense to wait and watch.

Delaying the delivery might mean you lose Alliant's exceptional interest rate of 1.49% on qualifying credit (their current deal ends on 7/15).

We could also argue that since tesla has stopped RVG on all financing last week onwards, all cars that are currently coming off production line are already enabled with new hardware and thus tesla doesn't have to protect the resale value of these card as it knows they will hold value.

On the other hand waiting another 6 month may save you a lot of money depending on your situation.

I did not know the deal was going to end. How much is this really worth though?

 

[MarkS22]

Boy that sure puts them in a tough decision scenario - the press will damn them if they do or if they don't.

Option 1 - No retrofit. Headline: "Tesla says for safe autopilot you must buy a new car."
Option 2 - Free retrofit. Headline: "Tesla tacitly acknowledges that their autopilot is dangerous. Why do they gamble with our lives?"
Option 3 - Charge for retrofit. Headline: "Tesla acknowledges their autopilot is dangerous, and makes customers pay to fix their sloppy engineering."

Yeah, the media will be the media. From an owner's point of view, I don't see how any form of safety retrofit could be seen as negative.

 

[benemac]

I hope for no option 1 for the many owners here! As a prospective owner I won't take any chances. You make a rational argument that option 1 may be unlikely though. I hope musk will clarify soon.

I think that option 1/ will open the case for lawsuits which IMO would be justifiable if AP in its current form happens to be unsafe, a claim which by the way many owners made in this forum before the fatal crash from last week was even disclosed.

My 2 cents. Thanks to those who convinced me to wait for my order.. I'd be spending money to cancel right now.. Or change delivery date to January or something if it's free...

Tesla states 8.0 updates will improve current configuration. And they've always said the system doesn't allow for people to keep their eyes off the road. So if it's option 1, I doubt they're going to say that it's unsafe and you'll have to upgrade to get a safe car. Even AP2 isn't going to be perfect. It will enhance the capabilities of the car over its current state. And hopefully, retrofitting is possible. We tried that after missing out on AP1 by 5 days. So I won't chance it this time.
With that said, we may order by the 15th to get the $1000 off and push delivery back until confirmation of any new hardware is absolutely known.

 

[MarkS22]

Since this is another thread about "Autopilot 2.0," I just wanted to throw out the idea that the lack of model years may become a source of frustration. We're all seeing people trying to time the latest sensor suite, battery update, or important upgrade. This is in contrast to waiting for the "New 2017 Model S." More and more people just don't know when to jump in and purchase.

If it were more of an iPhone approach with new hardware every year and firmware updates throughout, it would be more predictable for consumers. Don't get me wrong: It's already an amazing car. If you're happy with the price and features today, it shouldn't matter what comes out tomorrow. Especially knowing firmware will keep making it better, which is unprecedented for cars.

However, we need to acknowledge we're in this strange new place between a consumer electronic device and an automobile. The longer it takes for AP 2.0, the more people on the sidelines, afraid of purchasing a month too soon. Notice how everyone is obsessed with every major announcement (from the Model X launch to the Model 3 reveal), expecting the next AP suite?

I'm not suggesting going back to the traditional "model year" but surely there has to be a better way to time major upgrades for such a large purchase? Especially when we're not talking about incremental upgrades these days, but the ability to have Level 3 or Level 4 autonomy in the near (1-3 years) future.

How does Tesla keep moving forward with its current speed and flexibility without stories of "missing AutoPilot 2.0" by five days?

 

[xav-]

Tesla states 8.0 updates will improve current configuration. And they've always said the system doesn't allow for people to keep their eyes off the road. So if it's option 1, I doubt they're going to say that it's unsafe and you'll have to upgrade to get a safe car. Even AP2 isn't going to be perfect. It will enhance the capabilities of the car over its current state. And hopefully, retrofitting is possible. We tried that after missing out on AP1 by 5 days. So I won't chance it this time.
With that said, we may order by the 15th to get the $1000 off and push delivery back until confirmation of any new hardware is absolutely known.

Interesting. How long do you have to push the delivery back and is there any fee for doing so?

 

[Ben W]

Well, there could be degrees as well. For example, there have been multiple reports that, per MobilEye, traffic light and stop sign reaction is possible with AP1.0.

"Possible" is one thing. 99.9999% reliability (which is really crucial for red lights and stop signs) is another. Even with that level of reliability, if the average Tesla with AP (~40k of them on the road soon) encounters 25 red lights per day, that's one red light run per day. Given how consistently the current AP seems to misread speed limit signs, I'd guess they're in the ballpark of 99% to 99.9% accuracy with red lights. Not even close to good enough. I do hope Tesla proves me wrong though!

 

[MarkS22]

"Possible" is one thing. 99.9999% reliability (which is really crucial for red lights and stop signs) is another. Even with that level of reliability, if the average Tesla with AP (~40k of them on the road soon) encounters 25 red lights per day, that's one red light run per day. Given how consistently the current AP seems to misread speed limit signs, I'd guess they're in the ballpark of 99% to 99.9% accuracy with red lights. Not even close to good enough. I do hope Tesla proves me wrong though!

This goes back to the overarching debate over Autopilot in general. The early, albeit not definitive, data appears to show it's safer. By this logic, adding 99.9% effective red light/stop sign warnings will only make the entire system better. The current Autopilot will blast through an intersection at full speed. Tesla just needs to continue making it clear that this is still not "autonomy" and requires an alert driver.

On the other hand, you have people who say the more assistance you give, the less alert the drivers will be. There doesn't appear to be direct evidence of assistance causing more accidents. TACC and AEB have been available for a long time from many manufactures and the data suggests it has saved many lives. (I've had TACC since 2002 and still know not to completely trust it after 14 years.) However, it would be naive to ignore human nature. If something is safe 99.9% of the time, there's definitely an argument people may start to trust it too much.

 

[xav-]

We could also argue that since tesla has stopped RVG on all financing last week onwards, all cars that are currently coming off production line are already enabled with new hardware and thus tesla doesn't have to protect the resale value of these card as it knows they will hold value.

Or we could argue that tesla is freaked out by the effect that the $35k base model 3 will have on the resale value of 3 year old model Ss.

 

[Matias]

Normally I would say "no." On the other hand, we do know that EyeQ3 was designed to be capable of processing input from multiple cameras - I believe up to three cameras actually.

Given the fatality, I suppose it's possible that Tesla could be motivated to offer a minor retrofit offering some additional capability - a stereo camera perhaps? Trifocal camera? This wouldn't be full autonomy of course but it could add to the car's capabilities for sensing long range threats and add a wider angle to the front vision.

We now have two highly publicized autopilot accidents involving failure to see large objects blocking the forward path - the truck-in-the-lane collision in Europe and now the fatality in Florida. If there is a way to offer a cost effective upgrade perhaps Tesla will do it.

I am planning on trading in my current AP 1.0 car whenever full autonomy is available - but if Tesla told me tomorrow that for a few thousand dollars I could add a layer of additional accuracy in detecting stopped objects in front of the car then I would pony up the cash immediately.

Dunno - my guess is still no but anything's possible.

As you probably know, cost for retrofitting with Tesla have always been huge even when retrofitting has (rarely) been possible. It has been cheaper to sell old car and buy new than retrofit.

But if this AP 2.0 only needs additional camera, I see that reasonable priced retrofit could be possible. But on the other hand, it is better for Tesla, that you buy new car instead, so...

 

[Matias]

The current hardware is absolutely capable of recognizing and stopping at red lights/stop signs, per a presentation by MobilEye.

My gut feeling is that I don't trust a word in this article.

Yep. Why would you need second camera for that?

 

[robby]

Yep. Why would you need second camera for that?

Do we know the focal length of the current camera? It might not be wide enough to see tall lights from a close distance. They can work around this for signs by looking for them in advance and detecting the distance, but they can't do that for lights because they need to see when the light changes while it's in close proximity to the car.

 

[buckerine]

However, we need to acknowledge we're in this strange new place between a consumer electronic device and an automobile. The longer it takes for AP 2.0, the more people on the sidelines, afraid of purchasing a month too soon. Notice how everyone is obsessed with every major announcement (from the Model X launch to the Model 3 reveal), expecting the next AP suite?

I'm not suggesting going back to the traditional "model year" but surely there has to be a better way to time major upgrades for such a large purchase? Especially when we're not talking about incremental upgrades these days, but the ability to have Level 3 or Level 4 autonomy in the near (1-3 years) future.

How does Tesla keep moving forward with its current speed and flexibility without stories of "missing AutoPilot 2.0" by five days?

Right on. This has to be something that they're discussing internally as it's potentially leading to the impression of softer demand even if in reality that's not the case.

 

[Chopr147]

Since this is another thread about "Autopilot 2.0," I just wanted to throw out the idea that the lack of model years may become a source of frustration. We're all seeing people trying to time the latest sensor suite, battery update, or important upgrade. This is in contrast to waiting for the "New 2017 Model S." More and more people just don't know when to jump in and purchase.

If it were more of an iPhone approach with new hardware every year and firmware updates throughout, it would be more predictable for consumers. Don't get me wrong: It's already an amazing car. If you're happy with the price and features today, it shouldn't matter what comes out tomorrow. Especially knowing firmware will keep making it better, which is unprecedented for cars.

However, we need to acknowledge we're in this strange new place between a consumer electronic device and an automobile. The longer it takes for AP 2.0, the more people on the sidelines, afraid of purchasing a month too soon. Notice how everyone is obsessed with every major announcement (from the Model X launch to the Model 3 reveal), expecting the next AP suite?

I'm not suggesting going back to the traditional "model year" but surely there has to be a better way to time major upgrades for such a large purchase? Especially when we're not talking about incremental upgrades these days, but the ability to have Level 3 or Level 4 autonomy in the near (1-3 years) future.

How does Tesla keep moving forward with its current speed and flexibility without stories of "missing AutoPilot 2.0" by five days?

Thanks for the relief Sometimes we need to step back a bit and re-assess before panic sets in. I have a Model S in production now and will get delivery in August. I am (was) very happy with the current price, options and software. But an article based on a rumor has gotten me thinking about delaying delivery. I will step back and be very happy with what I have and just hope there will be some form of retrofit when 2.0 comes out. I can see ordering in January 2017 then hear rumors about full auotonomy coming soon...........when does it end? Tesla makes such a great car and is constantly improving on it. Live for the now!

 

[msnow]

Thanks for the relief Sometimes we need to step back a bit and re-assess before panic sets in. I have a Model S in production now and will get delivery in August. I am (was) very happy with the current price, options and software. But an article based on a rumor has gotten me thinking about delaying delivery. I will step back and be very happy with what I have and just hope there will be some form of retrofit when 2.0 comes out. I can see ordering in January 2017 then hear rumors about full auotonomy coming soon...........when does it end? Tesla makes such a great car and is constantly improving on it. Live for the now!

You're right, it doesn't end and that's a good thing overall.

 

[ecarfan]

Since this is another thread about "Autopilot 2.0," I just wanted to throw out the idea that the lack of model years may become a source of frustration. We're all seeing people trying to time the latest sensor suite, battery update, or important upgrade. This is in contrast to waiting for the "New 2017 Model S." More and more people just don't know when to jump in and purchase.

I take your point, but would argue that a traditional model year approach, where everyone knew that in the fall of every year a "new and improved" car would go on sale, and that no major changes to the car would be made at other times of the year, would result in a greater number of potential buyers waiting for the upcoming "new and improved" cars and postponing their purchase compared to the current situation where no one really knows for sure when the major changes will take place.

Keep in mind that participants in TMC discussions only represent a small fraction of all Tesla owners and potential buyers. Most Tesla owners and potential buyers do not obsessively track every word out of Elon's mouth and every incremental change in Tesla vehicles like those here are wont to do. In my experience, the average potential buyer only has vague notions about what Tesla currently offers, and no interest in the intense discussions on TMC. Over the past several years I have spoken to many Tesla owners and potential buyers I've met through random encounters, and few are conversant with the details that we here on TMC dwell on.

If AP 2.0 offers multiple forward facing cameras in the rear view mirror enclosure, and that is the only hardware difference to AP 1.0, I certainly hope that Tesla offers an upgrade path to current owners. I don't expect it to be free. That would set a precedent that Tesla could not afford going forward.

 

[krazineurons]

Losing the RVG is puzzling to me. If Tesla is confident about the value of the cars then the rational move is to keep the guarantee in place since it provides a benefit to the consumer and also costs Tesla nothing. The only reason to remove the guarantee is if in fact the cars are not holding resale. I think.

I do not follow the resale threads nor have the premium subscription of ev-cpo, do you think they are not holding value? I thought they were holding way above 50% residual value after 3 years. Frankly I assumed tesla would break ground on this depreciation tactics and 50% after 3 years just baffles me, isn't the primary depreciation reason engine and drive train?

My 2 cents. Thanks to those who convinced me to wait for my order.. I'd be spending money to cancel right now.. Or change delivery date to January or something if it's free...

Let me know how changing delivery works, I couldn't resist temptation and placed the order too and might want to delay it as well as I do not want to join the missed by 5 days queue.

Of course others have said it right, the wait never ends as it keeps upgrading but when we are super close to a major Hardware refresh it only makes sense to wait.

I did not know the deal was going to end. How much is this really worth though?

I think other CU/banks are at least 0.5 - 1% higher. The variance in interest rate matters to me as that essentially means paying more money for the same configuration.

Or we could argue that tesla is freaked out by the effect that the $35k base model 3 will have on the resale value of 3 year old model Ss.

Boy! That would be fun to watch, one fine day after the M3 reveal event board members start contemplating and realize what they have done.

 

[CarlitoDoc]

They better, there is a *sugar*-storm coming due to all these accidents related to AP use/miss-use. Just saying!

 

[ecarfan]

Frankly I assumed tesla would break ground on this depreciation tactics and 50% after 3 years just baffles me, isn't the primary depreciation reason engine and drive train?

I would say that the primary reason for new cars depreciating is that buyers won't pay nearly as much for a "used" car as they will for a brand new car.

I assume your point is that EV drivetrains should last much longer and be more reliable than ICE drivetrains. However most people don't understand that or are not considering buying an EV, so EVs are going to depreciate in a similar way that ICEs depreciate.