If it was you would not be able to tell by looking at the car.
In my opinion, Tesla has not yet started installing any new AP hardware compared to what was first installed in cars in late September 2014.
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In my opinion, Tesla has not yet started installing any new AP hardware compared to what was first installed in cars in late September 2014.
Based on Tesla's history over the last 4 years with the Model S.
When you purchase a car - assume you will not get additional (unannounced) hardware and that you will not be able to do an upgrade to any major new hardware features.
AP 1.0 is a considerable improvement over what I have in my early 2013 P85 - and if the driver assist features in AP 1.0 are something you want - then buy a car now.
If you want to be sure you'll get AP 2.0 - then the only way to guarantee that is to do what we plan to do. We're planning to wait to get our next Model S until Tesla has a 100D with AP 2.0. And we could end up waiting months or maybe a year or longer to see that - nobody knows and Tesla likely won't give any advanced notice when this is available - they'll likely announce it shortly after they've started manufacturing 100D/AP 2.0 cars.
But, at least until then, we still have our P85 - which is still a great car, even without AP...
When you purchase a car - assume you will not get additional (unannounced) hardware and that you will not be able to do an upgrade to any major new hardware features.
AP 1.0 is a considerable improvement over what I have in my early 2013 P85 - and if the driver assist features in AP 1.0 are something you want - then buy a car now.
If you want to be sure you'll get AP 2.0 - then the only way to guarantee that is to do what we plan to do. We're planning to wait to get our next Model S until Tesla has a 100D with AP 2.0. And we could end up waiting months or maybe a year or longer to see that - nobody knows and Tesla likely won't give any advanced notice when this is available - they'll likely announce it shortly after they've started manufacturing 100D/AP 2.0 cars.
But, at least until then, we still have our P85 - which is still a great car, even without AP...
I was also thinking of picking up an inventory car at a steep discount, and still may, but it's pretty safe to assume you won't be able to do a full upgrade to the latest autopilot for long. Right now, the car is using mostly radar to keep its position, and that's fine for the current feature set. However, full autonomy would require being able to handle traffic lights, road signs, etc, and the car may not have enough computing power to handle it.
Now that Mobileye is out, Telsa most likely has to replace that chipset with something else like the Nvidia Drive PX2.(Autonomous Car Development Platform from NVIDIA DRIVE PX2) It's way faster than even what mobileye has planned for the future and most automakers are switching over to that platform. IF that was the case, not only would the cars require new sensors but would also require the new chip and I'm guessing that would be a pain to retrofit. The latest and greatest autopilot chips/sensors will probably debut around the time of the model 3.
This is all just a big guess but if you REALLY want a self-driving car that can be part of the Tesla Uber-style fleet, might as well wait. However, it would take a few years to actually get there. I'm guessing at least 2 and maybe 3.
With this discount, and now the tax credits replenished in CA again, there's a good chance you won't lose too much money if you drive the car for a while and then sell it to someone else when new toys come out.
This is all just a guess but something to think about.
Now that Mobileye is out, Telsa most likely has to replace that chipset with something else like the Nvidia Drive PX2.(Autonomous Car Development Platform from NVIDIA DRIVE PX2) It's way faster than even what mobileye has planned for the future and most automakers are switching over to that platform. IF that was the case, not only would the cars require new sensors but would also require the new chip and I'm guessing that would be a pain to retrofit. The latest and greatest autopilot chips/sensors will probably debut around the time of the model 3.
This is all just a big guess but if you REALLY want a self-driving car that can be part of the Tesla Uber-style fleet, might as well wait. However, it would take a few years to actually get there. I'm guessing at least 2 and maybe 3.
With this discount, and now the tax credits replenished in CA again, there's a good chance you won't lose too much money if you drive the car for a while and then sell it to someone else when new toys come out.
This is all just a guess but something to think about.
Your post is one of the most sensible, rational posts I have ever seen on TMC. Excellent advice, thanks. I have a late 2013 Model S and a Model 3 reservation. I am hopeful that when it comes time to configure my Model 3 (possibly in fall or winter 2017) that it will be possible to order a 100kWh battery and that it will have whatever hardware comprises AP 2.0.
2virgule5
Member
New AP capabilities will possibly be introduced with or right after Model 3 reveal part 2. It is virtually impossible that M3 will be built with V1 hardware as MobilEye is out. So the likely scenarii is a big bang introduction of full M3 specs including level 3 autonomy 6 to 9 months prior to its availability and the simultaneous release for S/X to maintain demand.
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