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Autopilot 3 announced for next year

Discussion in 'Model S' started by ohm-ms, Aug 1, 2018.

  1. ohm-ms

    ohm-ms Member

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    Announced during the earnings call, AP3 increases processing power from 200 to 2000 frames per sec with new computer and will be offered as an upgrade to AP2.0 and later cars. Do you think it will be free as promised? Given the push towards profitability, I’m guessing there will be a charge.
     
  2. skitown

    skitown Supporting Member

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    If the existing 2.0 hardware doesn't get users to FSD, and they've paid for it, then I see no reason why it wouldn't be free as Tesla has guided.
     
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  3. MarkS22

    MarkS22 Member

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    I’m wondering if that additional $1,000 recently added to after-delivery FSD is designed to offset the new hardware.

    I don’t think they need to upgrade everyone. Only anyone who pays for the full FSD.

    They can take back all the DrivePXs and use them to build a supercomputer for crunching all the machine learning data. Or mine Bitcoin.
     
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  4. ohm-ms

    ohm-ms Member

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    @MarkS22 I think you are correct on both fronts. As someone with a new S on order, it is making me reconsider adding full self driving now to save the extra $2k of adding it after delivery.
     
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  5. AMPd

    AMPd Active Member

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    Yeah I wouldn’t hold my breath about that upgrade to existing cars actually happening.

    I’ve heard that SOOO MANY times in the past.
     
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  6. tpham07

    tpham07 Active Member

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    They already said they're upgrading the AP2.0/2.5 cars as those were sold being advertised as "full self drive capable"
     
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  7. Bebop

    Bebop Active Member

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    I would at this point in the game.
     
  8. kdday

    kdday Member

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    Amen.

    Elon has promised LOTS of retrofits in the past and almost zero of them have come to fruition. See latest MCU1 > MCU2 as the most recent example. Pure crickets.
     
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  9. MarkS22

    MarkS22 Member

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    For what it's worth, I have a Performance 3 coming in two weeks and I ordered FSD. At this point, I don't believe we'll see Level 4/5 for years, but I think they'll start releasing some FSD features in the next few months. Now with word of this new hardware, I'm much more comfortable that they'll be able to accomplish it.

    I do think this is ultimately going to help their margins. In fact, I think the majority of owners will eventually upgrade when they finally see it working.
     
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  10. MarkS22

    MarkS22 Member

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    To be fair, they have offered quite a few: New batteries on the Roadster. The P85D had a discounted Ludicrous upgrade. 3G was upgradable to LTE. Stuff like that.

    That's not to say they're perfect, but it's really not "almost zero."
     
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  11. henderrj

    henderrj Member

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    I had it in my mind that the free upgrade was only for those who had already purchased FSD. That means I could see them charging 2K for a hardware upgrade if you want to also pay for the upgrade to full self-driving. Maybe that's it.
     
  12. ricebucket

    ricebucket Member

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    I called this when they announced the price increase.

    I'm willing to bet that they're going to require the new HW for FSD. I wouldn't be surprised if even the new EAP features would require the new computer.

    Why? As they've noted, the new computer is 10x faster than the old. There's no reason why they would continue development on old hardware when they know that the new hardware is almost ready. It's like trying to ride a bike from NY to SF when you know that if you wait a week you will have a car ready. A 10x speed increase is just that large.

    And I wouldn't be surprised if AP4 will be even 10x faster. Just like mobile processors or GPUs years back, the new class of AI chips can progress faster than industry average because there are lots of relatively low hanging fruit in a new space.
     
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  13. R.S

    R.S Active Member

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    They were only "promised" an upgrade if necessary to achieve FSD. If Tesla says they can do it w/o the new computer, but it might take longer, that's still ok.

    Also, my AP1 came with a lot of things promised that never came true. On ramp to off ramp, meeting me at the curb based on my calendar... Sure, different circumstances, but we AP 1 owners will never see any improvement. AP2 people will still see improvements, even w/o the new HW.
     
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  14. mrkisskiss

    mrkisskiss Member

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    True, true... although I wonder if there might be some plumbing connected here; why upgrade MCU1 owners to MCU2 when an MCU3 is coming next year? At the moment, as far as we can tell, MCU2 only gives you a snappier browser (though I bet those Atari games will run like crap on it in v9)

    However, If an MCU upgrade is required for AP3 then it'd make sense to ignore all MCU1 owners right now, and just offer an upgrade path from MCU1 -> MCU3 (for those who purchased/pre-paid with FSD) when the time comes.

    Wow, I've really drunk the Tesla Kool aid! Next year things will be amazing!! etc etc
     
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  15. sandpiper

    sandpiper Active Member

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    It was a different company back then. It's a fair criticism. They also offered to allow batteries in existing cars to be upgraded. But that's simply not happened.

    With that said, they did design the AP computer for quick swap out. So I do expect that you will see it happening. For what it's worth, I don't see any true FSD happening on any production vehicle any time soon. But I imagine you'll get a slow increase in AP capabilities. i think that the biggest risk is lack of an internal camera in the S/X. I wouldn't be surprised if the DOT requires that the system be able to monitor driver attention (like Cadillac) before people are permitted to remove hands from the wheel.
     
  16. tstafford

    tstafford Supporting Member

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    Do we have any indication when cars will start being produced with this new chipset? There's a big difference (obviously) between seeing the software vs. the hardware being built in to the cars.
     
  17. Snowstorm

    Snowstorm Member

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    I wish FSD upgrade cost would be pro rated based on age of your car. It doesn’t seem right to pay the same price when your model S is 3 years old vs brand new.

    Better yet, make FSD follow you around instead of the car. A annua subscription is also possible given the need for continuous improvement and service.
     
  18. bob_p

    bob_p Active Member

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    We purchased FSD with our 2017 S 100D and 2018 X 100D, partly to lock in the price, and with the expectation that we'd start seeing the FSD software operating in "driver assist" mode soon (Version 9.0?).

    Since Tesla is trying to generate revenue to achieve profitability in Q3 & Q4, one way to quickly generate a burst of revenue would be to encourage owners with software-activatable features - to purchase those features now - which would include EAP, FSD, 72A charging (for vehicles software limited to 48A), and use of the full battery capacity (for software-limited battery packs).

    For FSD, they could set a time limit on activation with the $4,000 activation fee (or possibly offer a one time activation at $3,000), and then after that, all vehicles would get future FSD activation at $5,000 (like new vehicles). And by activating now, they would be eligible for the free processor upgrade next year.
     
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  19. tpham07

    tpham07 Active Member

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    Pete Bannon already said they're gonna upgrade AP2.0/2.5 cars. If they had no intention of upgrading, why are they still building cars with AP2.5 then, purposely leaving out 99% of their fleet from full self driving? Makes no sense.

    MCU2 hasn't been out that long, they dont have extra inventory lying around. Also does MCU2 add any functionality to your car? nope. In fact, all indications point to it taking away functionality (say goodbye to first gen HPWC capability)

    But would AP3.0 add something? yeah.
     
  20. AmpedRealtor

    AmpedRealtor Well-Known Member

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    If Tesla charges owners who already paid for FSD, there will be a major lawsuit guaranteed.

    Purchasing FSD after the fact has always cost an additional $1,000. This is not new.

    Not the same thing. Tesla never sold features that would depend on a future MCU2. Everything sold with an MCU1 car works with MCU1 and does not require MCU2. You are conflating different things.

    As an AP1 owner you should have asked or sued for a refund if you did not receive all the features that were promised. Tesla made a contract with you for those features, and the promise of those features was a material inducement to buy. You have only yourself to blame here.
     
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