Autopilot HW2.5!?

[Peteybabes]

Guess what? All of you with AP2.0 don't have the best hardware anymore...

Tesla has a new Autopilot ‘2.5’ hardware suite with more computing power for autonomous driving

Looks like something that's up-gradable for free, but you never know with Tesla if it will be that way for long.

 

[travwill]

I think we expected this, and likely a 3.0+. More redundancy will be needed, likely that driver facing camera will become a regulation, and governments very well could latch onto a standard like lidar/or redundancy in external systems thus making 2.0 and 2.5 never capable of autonomous level 4/5 driving. If it isn't legal, it won't be turned on...

I don't think AP2 was worth the upgrade. Hopefully things will flush out and it'll be time to upgrade in say 3-5 years...

 

[Peteybabes]

I think we expected this, and likely a 3.0+. More redundancy will be needed, likely that driver facing camera will become a regulation, and governments very well could latch onto a standard like lidar/or redundancy in external systems thus making 2.0 and 2.5 never capable of autonomous level 4/5 driving. If it isn't legal, it won't be turned on...

I don't think AP2 was worth the upgrade. Hopefully things will flush out and it'll be time to upgrade in say 3-5 years...

yeah when the Model 3 showed up with a cabin camera i was wondering, but at the end of the day does it really matter? i mean Elon said you could watch a movie while the car drives.

i'm more optimistic though, i say in 1-2 years max not 3-5. i feel confident a Tesla will be self driveable by 2020 at the latest.

 

[MinionBlob]

Exactly. I've prepaid for the Autonomous Driving feature with my AP2 and discussed this exact scenario at delivery. If Tesla for some reason can't deliver the AD features with the computing hardware, they will have to upgrade the modules to whatever future hardware is needed to support it. The driver-facing camera wasn't discussed but retrofitting one is hardly an insurmountable task for them. I think we will see several more documented or undocumented revisions to the AP hardware--and probably hundreds of other components-- of Tesla vehicles over their projected service life, most of them will not be as easily retrofitted as the AP2 computing platform.

The pace Nvidia had been releasing their new GPUs I'm surprised it took this long...

 

[Peteybabes]

Exactly. I've prepaid for the Autonomous Driving feature with my AP2 and discussed this exact scenario at delivery. If Tesla for some reason can't deliver the AD features with the computing hardware, they will have to upgrade the modules to whatever future hardware is needed to support it. The driver-facing camera wasn't discussed but retrofitting one is hardly an insurmountable task for them. I think we will see several more documented or undocumented revisions to the AP hardware--and probably hundreds of other components-- of Tesla vehicles over their projected service life, most of them will not be as easily retrofitted as the AP2 computing platform.

The pace Nvidia had been releasing their new GPUs I'm surprised it took this long...

I just hope when I end my lease in spring/summer of 2020 I will be getting into a Tesla without a steering wheel, lol (or at least truly Level 3-4 Autonomy) Or maybe I will just switch brands, we'll have to see how the auto market looks then.

 

[travwill]

I think the driver facing camera will be required in some areas or times where there are regulations the occupant needs to remain alert and awake. I work with a client of mine that develops software/facial tracking for a similar data tracking reason (in large 18 wheelers). I can totally see one state saying autonomous is fine, but driver needs to remain alert and looking at road (not a different screen too long).

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Yes, this has been known for a while on the Model 3 end.

HW2.5 capabilities

 

[Ski Krazy]

Couple interesting tidbits in there that stood out to me:

The spokesperson also said that all Model S, Model X, and Model 3 vehicles being ordered today come with the new hardware.

...and...

Tesla still believes that it can achieve the promised full autonomy on the 2.0 suite, but they now say that they could upgrade HW 2.0 cars with the new 2.5 hardware at no cost in the “highly unlikely” possibility that it is actually needed.

So interesting note for new orders and no worries for people with AP 2.0. Cool. My order should be starting production soon so it should have the new hardware, but even if it doesn't, once they have the ability, it would get upgraded regardless. That's comforting to know.

Customers that have 2.0 would have a legal case against Tesla to get it upgraded for free if that's what would be required since one could argue that one of the reasons they bought the Tesla was their claim to be able to provide fully-autonomous driving capability with that model. If they don't provide it then that would be a massive breach of false advertising and consumer protection issues. For that reason, I don't ever see them backtracking on providing a free upgrade if it were required.

 

[skilly]

I think that this says it all related to the article:

“However, we still expect to achieve full self-driving capability with safety more than twice as good as the average human driver without making any hardware changes to HW 2.0. If this does not turn out to be the case, which we think is highly unlikely, we will upgrade customers to the 2.5 computer at no cost.”

 

[AnxietyRanger]

For that reason, I don't ever see them backtracking on providing a free upgrade if it were required.

The thing that is more open for interpretation is how much better and/or more reliable will the HW 2.5 FSD be... even if/when HW 2.0 gets something...

Those improvements were not made for no reason, after all...

 

[fasteddie7]

Couple interesting tidbits in there that stood out to me:

The spokesperson also said that all Model S, Model X, and Model 3 vehicles being ordered today come with the new hardware.

...and...

Tesla still believes that it can achieve the promised full autonomy on the 2.0 suite, but they now say that they could upgrade HW 2.0 cars with the new 2.5 hardware at no cost in the “highly unlikely” possibility that it is actually needed.

So interesting note for new orders and no worries for people with AP 2.0. Cool. My order should be starting production soon so it should have the new hardware, but even if it doesn't, once they have the ability, it would get upgraded regardless. That's comforting to know.

Customers that have 2.0 would have a legal case against Tesla to get it upgraded for free if that's what would be required since one could argue that one of the reasons they bought the Tesla was their claim to be able to provide fully-autonomous driving capability with that model. If they don't provide it then that would be a massive breach of false advertising and consumer protection issues. For that reason, I don't ever see them backtracking on providing a free upgrade if it were required.

Maybe... I can see a backtrack if they say HW2 cannot pass regulatory requirements and therefore FSD is not be available in the country or region something to that effect. I have a 2016 HW1 (just missed HW2) and keep thinking about trading up for HW2 but I worry the current suite might not be the FSD we all hoped for, at least out here on the east coast (west coast might get FSD but the wintery north east might need additional HW) who knows, hopefully I'm wrong.

 

[Ski Krazy]

Maybe... I can see a backtrack if they say HW2 cannot pass regulatory requirements and therefore FSD is not be available in the country or region something to that effect. I have a 2016 HW1 (just missed HW2) and keep thinking about trading up for HW2 but I worry the current suite might not be the FSD we all hoped for, at least out here on the east coast (west coast might get FSD but the wintery north east might need additional HW) who knows, hopefully I'm wrong.

Yeah, but if HW 2.5 passed regulatory requirements, then they would still be obligated to upgrade it for free, in my opinion.

I mean, it's like saying "buy my motorcycle, it'll fly you to the moon" and then saying "you can't get regulatory approval to fly to the moon anyways, so there's no need to provide you that capability until you can get the approval". Sort of a catch-22 that I don't think would fly legally. But I'm not a lawyer, so what do I know...

 

[Peteybabes]

Yeah, but if HW 2.5 passed regulatory requirements, then they would still be obligated to upgrade it for free, in my opinion.

I mean, it's like saying "buy my motorcycle, it'll fly you to the moon" and then saying "you can't get regulatory approval to fly to the moon anyways, so there's no need to provide you that capability until you can get the approval". Sort of a catch-22 that I don't think would fly legally. But I'm not a lawyer, so what do I know...

perhaps they could arrange for a refund then?

 

[fasteddie7]

perhaps they could arrange for a refund then?

In the past broken promises did not lead to a refund but a cash discount on a brand new Tesla. There were some missed referral prizes that were awarded the cash value as a discount on a new vehicle.

 

[Ski Krazy]

perhaps they could arrange for a refund then?

Yeah, but one could still say they wouldn't have bought the car had they known that FSD wasn't a possibility (how could Tesla argue against that?), which is what Tesla would technically be saying if they tried to arrange a refund. If it really did come to it, it being HW 2.0 not being capable enough, I think they would just have to swallow the pill and upgrade, which is what they're saying in this article anyways.

 

[alcibiades]

I wouldn't be surprised if this announcement launches another lawsuit. Tesla should proactively swap these boards out.

 

[fasteddie7]

Yeah, but one could still say they wouldn't have bought the car had they known that FSD wasn't a possibility (how could Tesla argue against that?), which is what Tesla would technically be saying if they tried to arrange a refund. If it really did come to it, it being HW 2.0 not being capable enough, I think they would just have to swallow the pill and upgrade, which is what they're saying in this article anyways.

It does say may vary by jurisdiction, so as long as it works in, let's say, Fremont California, they fulfilled the promise as if it doesn't fly in Boston regulatory approval in the jurisdiction can be blamed.

 

[boaterva]

Couple interesting tidbits in there that stood out to me:

The spokesperson also said that all Model S, Model X, and Model 3 vehicles being ordered today come with the new hardware.

...and...

Tesla still believes that it can achieve the promised full autonomy on the 2.0 suite, but they now say that they could upgrade HW 2.0 cars with the new 2.5 hardware at no cost in the “highly unlikely” possibility that it is actually needed.

So interesting note for new orders and no worries for people with AP 2.0. Cool. My order should be starting production soon so it should have the new hardware, but even if it doesn't, once they have the ability, it would get upgraded regardless. That's comforting to know.

Customers that have 2.0 would have a legal case against Tesla to get it upgraded for free if that's what would be required since one could argue that one of the reasons they bought the Tesla was their claim to be able to provide fully-autonomous driving capability with that model. If they don't provide it then that would be a massive breach of false advertising and consumer protection issues. For that reason, I don't ever see them backtracking on providing a free upgrade if it were required.

Interesting, since my order is being locked as of today... I wonder what the actual date was for all cars having 2.5 (or 2.1 as the spokesperson called it...) perhaps the date of the first Model 3 delivery, July 28? Or perhaps August 1?

AP2.0 had a finite date that EM announced at the 3 reveal part 2, I believe? (October 26, 2016, if I recall correctly?)

 

[Waiting4M3]

Regarding the driver facing camera, I wonder if it was in the M3 design last July at "pencil down" time. And if it was, why did it not make into AP2 HW in MS/X in Oct?

 

[MXWing]

Good news is the Model 3 is the car they can probably change the least (piss off the most amount of people).

If possible to refit, Tesla probably uses what what the cost is for FSD to cover it.