Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

AutoPilot needs to look 2 cars ahead

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Hardware, hardware, hardware. Not there yet.

I disagree. Between the radar and the camera the current hardware would allow at least some insight to two cars ahead. Probably not 100% tracking but probably could off and on.

When I drive my best method is looking ahead to predict what the driver in front of me will do. If that fails then I watch for brake lights. If that fails then I react to the speed of the car in front of me. I think autopilot needs to adapt this philosophy.

Brake lights are nice because many drivers hit the brake a bit before they really brake.
 
Hardware, hardware, hardware. Not there yet.
Maybe, but IMHO the main issue is software, although the existing computer may not be capable of running the needed software.

From the way the car behaves, I don't think it is building an internal model of the road and traffic situation which it keeps updating with sensor information, then using that to make driving decisions. Rather, it seems like the car is looking at the instantaneous situation and triggering behavior based on specific characteristics, e.g. left and right clearance, does it sense a car to one side at the moment, and do on. Without being set up to predict the outcome of a given maneuver, we get potentially dangerous behavior like the car moving to the extreme edge of a lane after changing lanes.

I'd think that with a more comprehensive model of the situation the car was in, techniques like deep learning AI could be used to help plan the car's behavior. However, running such a system in real time might be quite a bit more than the current CPU/memory/mass storage is capable of.
 
I definitely haven't followed most of the autopilot discussion here, but I suggest you watch the video at Google's Chris Urmson on self-driving cars. To have a proper self-driving car, there's a LOT more than just looking 2 cars ahead.

At autonomous driving vehicle discussion | PriusChat, I'd also posted this:
How Google's Self-Driving Car Works - IEEE Spectrum might be of interest to some folks here. The first video in that article (part 2 of 3) is pretty cool. Part 3 was ok.
 
Swarm will happen. The difference is it allows you to tailgate at high speeds. So without swarm you may follow at 1 sec distance and swarm might get you to .2 sec distance. The energy use at speed can decrease 30% with that. And then you can increase speed. So swarm matters....

Google's talk was disappointing in that his primary argument is our approach is better than Tesla's. But still interesting.

When people are so down on AP/autonomy - I think they fail to realize the societal benefits. Traffic going away - that is enough of a driving force to not allow humans to continue to drive. Especially when you consider the legislative need and the traffic in DC. And then consider the most productive age - and that they have kids. Chris Urmson mentioned this and it is the most powerful force in Biology - even more than sex. So traffic and protecting your child.
 
I didn't get AP when I ordered (squeaking out every penny) but with my income tax refund back now, am wondering if I should get it now. With the new forum format, I can't figure out how (or if) I can just pose the questions to the community generally, is AP out of beta? Is it ready for prime-time?
 
I didn't get AP when I ordered (squeaking out every penny) but with my income tax refund back now, am wondering if I should get it now. With the new forum format, I can't figure out how (or if) I can just pose the questions to the community generally, is AP out of beta? Is it ready for prime-time?

Technically, no autopilot is not out of beta. That being said, a number of us find it useful for assisting with long freeway drives. I think if you understand what it does, and what its limitations are, that might help your decision. I recommend reading through the following thread, started by @Papafox, over on the User Interface sub-forum, which is basically a tutorial to autopilot.

A flight instructor teaches Tesla Autopilot

Hope that helps!
 
  • Helpful
Reactions: lucy
It should also take into account what's going on in the adjacent lanes. I.e.
if both adjacent lanes start slowing down significantly it should probably increase follow distance automatically just to give a little more buffer if and when it's own lane starts slowing down. Other thing is autopilot should be able to recognize when the brake lights come on. If brake lights come on it should increase follow distance even if the car in front doesn't significantly slow down.

At least where I live, brake lights may or may not be a clue to what the car is going to do. I personally prefer to watch the car to see if it is slowing. That's the same thing the radar does. Brake lights don't mean much if you are able to track the car.
 
Per the DOT, the average age of cars on the road in the U.S. is a record high 11.5 years. While swarm communications would undoubtedly be benficial with much less than 100% of the cars on the road participating, we are a long ways off from even 10 or 15% of cars having it.
 
Per the DOT, the average age of cars on the road in the U.S. is a record high 11.5 years. While swarm communications would undoubtedly be benficial with much less than 100% of the cars on the road participating, we are a long ways off from even 10 or 15% of cars having it.

The interesting thing about swarm/train technology is that it actually allows a lot more cars to move along a lane at the same time (and with less energy.) Autopilot already helps some by mitigating the too close/overreacting driver pileups, but swarm technology would allow autonomous cars to get much closer together safely.

In places with lots of congestion and HOV lanes to try to mitigate the congestion, I'm thinking that "swarm" or "train" lanes will show up while there still aren't that many cars as a fraction of the total population. These will be much more effective than HOV lanes at actually reducing congestion provided there are enough cars able to use them.

Having those lanes will in turn greatly increase demand for cars capable of using them among people who are frustrated with long commutes. Even taking a few percent of the cars out of the traffic jam substantially reduces the jam's size and duration.

Tesla's ability to do OTA software updates and inclusion of AP hardware on all cars (since September 2014) makes them uniquely positioned to deliver a massive fleet of swarm capable cars in very short order, assuming one of the existing radio interfaces can be adapted to the desired purpose - and the car already has most of the current interface standards onboard (cellular, WiFi, Bluetooth.) Even if they need to add a communications module, it's probably a rather simple, inexpensive retrofit.

I haven't read of a proposal for a swarm standard (I'm sure there are some) - you need very low latency, moderate range (200m?) but don't need terribly much bandwidth to make it practical.
Walter
 
This is interesting. Imagine being stuck in traffic for your daily commute while being forced to watch the "swarm lane" move along at full speed. That would be a pretty big motivating factor for getting a new vehicle if ever there was one.