Average Model 3 Battery Size: 70 kWh

[Booga]

We have two data points now:

1) In the shareholder's meeting, Elon mentioned that the average model 3 battery size will be 70kwh. (Link pending an upload of the video) This was at a segment where he describes the firm's battery requirements.

2) In a previous interaction, the VP of Investor Relations for Tesla gave enough information to tell us that a battery pack smaller than 60 kWh would be offered. Tesla confirms base Model 3 will have less than 60 kWh battery pack option, cost is below $190/kWh and falling

I see this going one of three ways:
A) We get a 55 kWh option and an 85 kWh option, average of 70 kWh
B) We get a 60 kWh option and an 80 kWh option, average of 70 kWh
C) We get a third pack, for which Elon is assuming only a very small portion go for the upgrade, and so we get a weighted average of 70 kWh

Did I hear him correctly regarding the average? Does this mean that option A gives us 300+ miles (85/55 times 215 base) and option B runs short of the full 300 assuming RWD power?

 

[FirstSea]

I hope you heard correctly, 70 would be extracting what I want.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

Why would he split the difference between two different battery sizes, instead of "averaging" the amount of Model 3's sold with a specific battery pack.

Sounds to me like he's saying more people will choose a 70kWh battery, than the <60 option...

 

[geoffreak]

Why would he split the difference between two different battery sizes, instead of "averaging" the amount of Model 3's sold with a specific battery pack.

Sounds to me like he's saying more people will choose a 70kWh battery, than the <60 option...

I agree with you. While I didn't listen to the shareholders meeting today, the way this was described and the expectations previously set by Musk and Tesla lead me to believe the battery sizes would be right around 55kWh and 70kWh (<60 + battery size difference of 15kWh in S + X). Knowing this, it seems to point to Elon meaning to say median instead of average (mean).

Of course this is assuming @Booga was referring to something said today and not from the call where an investor asked if the average battery size would be under 70 or 75 kWh (to which Elon said yes).

EDIT: See the facts two posts down

 

[MP3Mike]

Elon mentioned that the average model 3 battery size will be 70kwh.

Is that new? last I heard he said the average of Model 3 batteries would be less than 70kWh.

 

[Alketi]

I watched this live.

He calculated the potential Gigafactory output as follows:

500,000 cars X 70kWh average = 35GWh factory output needed.

Then he referred to the fact that the rest of the world put out 30GWh of batteries (probably referring to the 2013 output).

Then ... he later dropped the hint that with the increases in manufacturing efficiency that they're anticipating, that they could see up to TRIPLE the projected Gigafactory output.

[I'm not sure how much I would read into the 70kWh number as it relates to the Model 3. The Gigafactory will be providing ALL Tesla vehicles with batteries. But one note -- average does not necessarily mean there will be a 60 and an 80kWh pack. Average = TOTAL capacity of all packs sold / number of packs sold]

 

[techmaven]

No, I am assuming the 70 kWh average comment is across all product lines, not just the Model 3, even if the initial production is mostly for Model 3.

 

[Booga]

I watched this live.

He calculated the potential Gigafactory output as follows:

500,000 cars X 70kWh average = 35GWh factory output needed.

Then he referred to the fact that the rest of the world put out 30GWh of batteries (probably referring to the 2013 output).

Then ... he later dropped the hint that with the increases in manufacturing efficiency that they're anticipating, that they could see up to TRIPLE the projected Gigafactory output.

[I'm not sure how much I would read into the 70kWh number as it relates to the Model 3. The Gigafactory will be providing ALL Tesla vehicles with batteries. But one note -- average does not necessarily mean there will be a 60 and an 80kWh pack. Average = TOTAL capacity of all packs sold / number of packs sold]

Thank you. This is exactly what I recall.

We really will just have to wait for the second unveiling to get more details.

 

[SageBrush]

Sorry for the cold water, but the base Model3 is about half the cost of a base ModelS. Now, while I have no doubt that Tesla will manage amazing feats of cost cutting, there will also be compromises compared to the ModelS.

 

[Booga]

Sorry for the cold water, but the base Model3 is about half the cost of a base ModelS. Now, while I have no doubt that Tesla will manage amazing feats of cost cutting, there will also be compromises compared to the ModelS.

I thought I was getting a rebadged model S though... :-(

 

[Colsla]

I thought I was getting a rebadged model S though... :-(

Driving experience wise, yes. Technology wise, no..

 

[SageBrush]

I thought I was getting a rebadged model S though... :-(

Yes, the talk of the 70 kWh battery made that clear.

 

[2early4flapjacks]

We have two data points now:

1) In the shareholder's meeting, Elon mentioned that the average model 3 battery size will be 70kwh. (Link pending an upload of the video) This was at a segment where he describes the firm's battery requirements.

2) In a previous interaction, the VP of Investor Relations for Tesla gave enough information to tell us that a battery pack smaller than 60 kWh would be offered. Tesla confirms base Model 3 will have less than 60 kWh battery pack option, cost is below $190/kWh and falling

I see this going one of three ways:
A) We get a 55 kWh option and an 85 kWh option, average of 70 kWh
B) We get a 60 kWh option and an 80 kWh option, average of 70 kWh
C) We get a third pack, for which Elon is assuming only a very small portion go for the upgrade, and so we get a weighted average of 70 kWh

Did I hear him correctly regarding the average? Does this mean that option A gives us 300+ miles (85/55 times 215 base) and option B runs short of the full 300 assuming RWD power?

D) We get a 50 kWh option and an 90 kWh option, average of 70 kWh

Dreaming...I know

 

[SageBrush]

Since the 70 kWh number was a gigafactory average pack size, it seems safe to presume that a weighted average was being talked about.

Other than EM anticipating that most people will option up to a bigger (70+ kWh) battery, I would not try to guess much more.

 

[ecarfan]

Elon typically refers to "average" battery size for a Model as being the average of two battery size choices based on sales mix. So I interpret his statement as indicating that the sales mix will be skewed towards the larger optional battery (just as it is on the S). Since we know the Model 3 base battery is less than 60, and the larger optional battery is likely to be purchased in over half the cars, I think the size of the larger optional battery will be over 70, possibly 75.

 

[Dynastar]

If you assumed 55kwh and 75kwh pack options a 70kwh average would imply only 16.7% of folks take the smaller size. This is building conjections on conjections though.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

If we make some unfounded assumptions for 2018-2020 (whenever they hit 500k / yr):
160,000 S+X, split evenly for 70 vs 90 kWh = 12,800,000 kWh = 12.8 GWh
340,000 3, split evenly for 55/75 kWh = 22.2 GWh
Then the weighted average is ~70 kWh per pack. The model 3 split could be also 60/40 or 40/60 and still come out to nearly 70kWh, +- a few kWh, for average pack size. Alternatively if the S/X split is as much as 75/25 or 25/75 and the 3 split is 50/50 or 60/40 or 40/60 ... these all come out generally within a few kWh of 70 kWh average pack size.

So a not entirely unreasonable size might be 55 / 75, or at least 55/70 (since with various other splits of S/X and such that might still work out close to 70 kWh).

I tried to find any published details about sales breakdowns but all I get from google is stuff related to battery range or degradation ...

If 55kWh gets you 215+ miles, 75 kWh with dual motors might just get you a little past 300 miles (assuming same absolute state of charge margins, a larger battery has more usable percentage, plus dual motor efficiency boost).

 

[Chuq]

I'm sure Elon just makes these statements to whip everyone into a maths frenzy

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Whatever the bigger battery size is, that's what I am going with. Unless that option with dual motors, by themselves pushes the price of the car over $50,000. If that is the case I might have to opt for the smaller battery. (I want auto pilot and supercharging too!)

Dan

 

[Booga]

Yes, the talk of the 70 kWh battery made that clear.

Shirley, you knew I was making a joke?