AWD delivery predictions

[Guest]

I deferred my configuration invite until AWD became available. Well, that still hasn't happened for me, but, I have another issue that will prevent my configuration and ultimate purchase, the federal tax credit. If they can't show reasonable delivery times in the 3rd/early 4th quarter, I will not be ordering. The non-refundable $3500 deposit and a gray delivery window is not acceptable to me.

When do you think deliveries will be for people who deferred? I deferred in early April.

 

[eSpiritIV]

wait till the ramp hits 5k and we will know more. delivery schedule will probably go back to normal

 

[AviP]

I think that since Tesla has made 40K RWD LRs and they will have demand for less than 40K AWD LRs. Since they opened up the config, that means they are nearing the end of RWD LR demand (says 2 months worth backlog). That implies, that AWD LR production should ramp up about Jul/Aug 2018 and end by Sep/Oct 2018.

And then the remaining 80% of mass market SR owners will see the light at the end of their tunnel.

 

[ewoodrick]

It is interesting that you want to pay $20k over the car that is selling now, but get upset if you lose $7k tax credit.

Go read the staging of the tax credit.

 

[drawfour]

I deferred my configuration invite until AWD became available. Well, that still hasn't happened for me, but, I have another issue that will prevent my configuration and ultimate purchase, the federal tax credit. If they can't show reasonable delivery times in the 3rd/early 4th quarter, I will not be ordering. The non-refundable $3500 deposit and a gray delivery window is not acceptable to me.

When do you think deliveries will be for people who deferred? I deferred in early April.

Tesla just cut the estimate for NEW reservations for LR AWD to 6-9 months. I don't see how they can't get through yours before the end of the year, unless something really bad happens at the plant that is unexpected.

 

[Moderatefan]

they are nearing the end of RWD LR demand

Do you realize 50% of overall reservations(non-U.S.) did not get the invite? Do you realize close to 50% of U.S. reservations did not get the invite? I have day 2 reservation and no invite.
There's a lot of demand not served.

 

[drawfour]

Do you realize 50% of overall reservations(non-U.S.) did not get the invite? Do you realize close to 50% of U.S. reservations did not get the invite? I have day 2 reservation and no invite.
There's a lot of demand not served.

Exactly. I'm also day 2 and have no invite. While I AM going for the AWD whenever I get that invite, it's really tempting to just go with the RWD to get it sooner, and something I can play with this summer. I'm sure there are a lot of people California or other more temperate regions in the south that would be just fine with RWD.

Also, note that Tesla just sent out a lot of delay letters from the last round of invites because they got too much response (moreso than previous batches). Since LR was the only available option at the time, that's all they could configure. And this was even though Elon tweeted about AWD/Performance coming once they reach 5k/wk production rate, which again he said would probably be July. So even though people know AWD is right around the corner, the last batch exceeded expected demand for RWD.

There are still a LOT of RWD reservation holders out there.

 

[Guest]

It is interesting that you want to pay $20k over the car that is selling now, but get upset if you lose $7k tax credit.

Go read the staging of the tax credit.

Pretty sure the cost is $5k, not 20 for AWD, and yes the loss of $3750 for a car I don't need is enough to makes a difference. I would never buy this vehicle new without the full incentive.

 

[Sdunnin]

Do you realize 50% of overall reservations(non-U.S.) did not get the invite? Do you realize close to 50% of U.S. reservations did not get the invite? I have day 2 reservation and no invite.
There's a lot of demand not served.

Where do you get your numbers from?

 

[Moderatefan]

Where do you get your numbers from?

U.S. percentage is assumption based on S/X history.
3/31/2016 & 4/1/2016 reservation counts can be seen here Chart for Model 3 reservations — cumulative and hourly
~232K in the first 2 days. My feel is that ~10% of old reservations were since cancelled(exact numbers never reported), but replenished by new ones to the current level of about ~450K.

If 50% are U.S. reservations(might be slightly less), then 1st and 2nd day have about 100K+ of U.S. orders. That is out of total U.S. of about 225K. However, as far as deliveries I believe 7% of owners from the 225K already received invitations regardless of date(7% is based on spreadsheet in the deliveries/sticky thread).

The same spreadsheet as of pre-shutdown date was reporting ~30% of reported 4/1/2016 reservations received invitations.
There were some issues w/ spreadsheets after that, so not sure if they are maintained properly now; but since almost all of cars went to Canada after that, I seriously doubt this 30% invite rate for 4/1 exceeded 50% since; moreover, a lot of people who received invites on 4/18 were bumped to July delivery to avoid 200K.