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AWD delivery thread

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I agree that I shouldn't have to pay extra for a different color...but it's so freaking cool and I'm not a fan of black interiors.

The thing that annoys me is that they're both "premium" interiors. They're just different colors. They don't charge an additional $1500 for the white interior in the S or the X, the premium black and white are the same price. So why are they gouging the customers that probably have less money?? Seems wrong if you ask me (although I paid for the upgrade too lol). Just saying...
 
The thing that annoys me is that they're both "premium" interiors. They're just different colors. They don't charge an additional $1500 for the white interior in the S or the X, the premium black and white are the same price. So why are they gouging the customers that probably have less money?? Seems wrong if you ask me (although I paid for the upgrade too lol). Just saying...

It is how Tesla "lowers" prices. As the years go by more and more stuff gets included in the base price that used to be priced as extra. In a couple of years black/white/tan/etc will probably be the same price on the model 3 and the next "extras" will be things like air suspension that will eventually be included in the base. Probably AWD in the base a few years from now too. The model S now has the premium upgrade package in the base price. Only real options are battery size/performance, autopilot/fsd and third row seating.
 
I am resisting the urge to switch my order to white interior in an effort to take delivery of it in September.

I personally prefer the white interior but my wife hates it. She also is convinced that it is going to look like hell after a few years no matter how many videos get produced showing how well it keeps up.

Second issue is that other manufacturers don't charge for a premium interior and then tack on another charge just because you prefer a color other than black. With my current car there were choices for 6 leathers and 6 interior trims all at the same cost once you were springing for the upgraded seats. I have a hard time shoveling another $1500 at Tesla for white seats.
I think it ludicrous for people to be changing their orders to game the system. If you do and you get pushed out a month, no tears, no rants, deaf ears.
 
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I am also not a fan of black interiors.

With my luck though I'd switch my order right at the moment they switched everything over to black, my car got pushed back to end of the year and slip into next year and I miss the tax credit.

I thought of this myself. Even though I think the white looks cooler, I try to be practical. An extra $1500, plus the fact that I play sand volleyball 4 nights/week doesn't make sense for white.
 
I would gladly pay $1500 to expedite my order. I just don't want a goofy black and white interior.

5FS0R02.jpg
 
It is how Tesla "lowers" prices. As the years go by more and more stuff gets included in the base price that used to be priced as extra. In a couple of years black/white/tan/etc will probably be the same price on the model 3 and the next "extras" will be things like air suspension that will eventually be included in the base. Probably AWD in the base a few years from now too. The model S now has the premium upgrade package in the base price. Only real options are battery size/performance, autopilot/fsd and third row seating.

I understand, but the premium black interior was already an upgrade from the base textile interior in the 3. The white was always the same price as the other premium colors in the S and X. Granted, the white was initially only available for the performance models (just like the 3). Basically, Tesla is charging an additional premium for a different "premium" option for the sake of short term profit. Like I said, I upgraded to white because I like the look, but I'm not happy that they charged more for it when I was already paying for the premium upgrade. Oh well...
 
It’s true. But if I’m being honest: At this point I’d like to give them three color options and I’ll take what comes up first. I’m even agnostic on wheels! But that’s not an option, sadly.
Exactly how I feel, White, Silver, Red. I don’t care too much. Wheels, who cares, I’ll buy a 2nd set either way as I always do for winter tires.

I think it ludicrous for people to be changing their orders to game the system. If you do and you get pushed out a month, no tears, no rants, deaf ears.
Tesla sends emails suggesting you do just that. Hey, why don’t you test drive a P and buy that or we have white interior, just need AWD added to your order too. They are a company who understands game theory at a high level and run their company as such. For the record, I just changed from silver to white because my wife told me she didn’t like that I was getting silver, “but it’s your car” she said. I caved because white was my original first choice. Couldn’t convince her on the white seats though.
 
I am also not a fan of black interiors.

With my luck though I'd switch my order right at the moment they switched everything over to black, my car got pushed back to end of the year and slip into next year and I miss the tax credit.
I share that concern.

Was thinking about switching to white interior and from 19” wheels to aeros. But my wife hates the white interior and I also worry that it will push me into 2019.
 
But wait, I did pay $1000 to expedite my order 2.5 years ago. After talking with a employee today, that was worth maybe a slight improvement in line position, and that is all. I think the early RWD orders it helped, but after that it’s been just a small weight in the logistics process.

Disagree. 40% of day 1 reservation holders have at least a VIN, if not a car, compared to 10% of people who reserved day 3 or later. And that's including white interiors -- if you throw those out, then virtually no one who reserved later than day 2 has gotten jack squat.

And keep in mind, that includes people who reserved day 1 and got invited in June but didn't bother to order a car until August. Those people are getting their cars before me (I reserved late but ordered immediately upon availability), which also doesn't seem right.
 
Yikes. Scheduling 4/1 reservations through end of Sept. So much for getting through the 4/1 bubble in Q3.
It’s true. But if I’m being honest: At this point I’d like to give them three color options and I’ll take what comes up first. I’m even agnostic on wheels! But that’s not an option, sadly.
I feel exactly the same way. The downside of not having a dealership. I am happy with various color/wheel combinations. I wish there was a “first available” option.
 
That graph, the one I suggested, troubles me. It is clear from tesla guidance on their support page for ordering model 3, it's in reservation order. Do you have a version of that by order order. Just Dedham alone is delivering just shy of 400/month. If there are 250 such dealerships that would be about 97000 in Aug alone. I am thinking that's high (#sarcasm) but anecdotally what people are reporting is they are delivering on reservations made into April '16. That graph does not match what I perceive to be reality. Thinking in terms of multr (multiple regression analysis) I am not seeing a correlation between that graph and what appears to be facts on the ground. Others have been told delivery is by order date at this point. If Dedham is high volume compared to Parkersburg WVA, take 1/2 that, 48,000 in Aug. It could also be people who added their initial reservation, have left the effort. This is one of my principal reasons for challenging the spreadsheet. Thoughts??

Thanks for your feedback. You may well be right, but I'm not sure I understand your point. Are you suggesting that the AWD tracker data indicates more 2017 and 2018 reservers are getting cars than the anecdotal evidence? This data set is small of course although almost 1,000 orders. Also, the data is purely voluntary: some posters may be overstating their actual case, and others may be neglecting to post after they get good news. I just don't know.

In my case, I reserved January 16th, 2018. I got my VIN today. There should be tons of reservers before me, but this is limited by those who pick a config that Tesla's immature manufacturing process and supplier stream are producing. I'm AWD with EAP and Red colour, black interior, and have no trade-in, so I'm paying more than some who want a cheaper config, plus my money will come quick and easy from Tesla's standpoint. All factors that might get me a car before others who reserved before me. I'm not saying this is right, I'm just trying like you to understand their methodology. And I know of many other anecdotes of people getting their cars even though they reserved late. FYI, here's what the data looks like today for earliest VIN by typical configs:



I think our data may have issues for a number of reasons, including errors in entry. I'm working on an update to the entry form that should reduce errors and make it easier to update, and thereby increase the reliability of the reports. I'd appreciate feedback when I post it.

Thanks again.
 

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@tvisdog I don’t see any data near 40% for day 1 from the two spreadsheets I know of, and which only account for a small % of buyers. @Troy says his data does not show a significant difference between when the reservation was given and if the person has a VIN. I have to believe him since we can’t see that variable. Jkirkwood’s data has a little more lean toward day 1 but has less data points. Most buyers are not on these forums based on numbers so not represented in the sheets. However, if there are even 60% of day 1’s left who want AWD, I estimate that is 7500 units. Seems like little need for even day 2 people to have a VIN yet. If they just put some tracking info into our account pages they could save a lot of money handling calls, but I diverge.

I’m sure this sounds odd to many here, but in Salt Lake City I see the same few M3 owners driving around that I have seen for months. As in maybe 6 separate cars for a metro of 2M people. I’m sure there are many more, but not even close to 100, which still seems really low for a delivery center at this point. Most people here think Tesla is a tiny boutique brand only still. If the goal is EV adoption, flooding Cali isn’t what they need to do. That is just preaching to the choir IMHO.
 
@tvisdog I don’t see any data near 40% for day 1 from the two spreadsheets I know of, and which only account for a small % of buyers. @Troy says his data does not show a significant difference between when the reservation was given and if the person has a VIN. I have to believe him since we can’t see that variable. Jkirkwood’s data has a little more lean toward day 1 but has less data points. Most buyers are not on these forums based on numbers so not represented in the sheets. However, if there are even 60% of day 1’s left who want AWD, I estimate that is 7500 units. Seems like little need for even day 2 people to have a VIN yet. If they just put some tracking info into our account pages they could save a lot of money handling calls, but I diverge.

I’m sure this sounds odd to many here, but in Salt Lake City I see the same few M3 owners driving around that I have seen for months. As in maybe 6 separate cars for a metro of 2M people. I’m sure there are many more, but not even close to 100, which still seems really low for a delivery center at this point. Most people here think Tesla is a tiny boutique brand only still. If the goal is EV adoption, flooding Cali isn’t what they need to do. That is just preaching to the choir IMHO.

EXACTLY!! There are 2 Model S in my neighborhood and I have seen 1 model 3... I can't wait until Utah is flooded with them!
 
That graph, the one I suggested, troubles me. It is clear from tesla guidance on their support page for ordering model 3, it's in reservation order. Do you have a version of that by order order. Just Dedham alone is delivering just shy of 400/month. If there are 250 such dealerships that would be about 97000 in Aug alone. I am thinking that's high (#sarcasm) but anecdotally what people are reporting is they are delivering on reservations made into April '16. That graph does not match what I perceive to be reality. Thinking in terms of multr (multiple regression analysis) I am not seeing a correlation between that graph and what appears to be facts on the ground. Others have been told delivery is by order date at this point. If Dedham is high volume compared to Parkersburg WVA, take 1/2 that, 48,000 in Aug. It could also be people who added their initial reservation, have left the effort. This is one of my principal reasons for challenging the spreadsheet. Thoughts??


So your first problem comes with "if there 250 such dealerships"

US Tesla Service Centers | Tesla

Tesla has 75 service centers in the US (Dedham is on that list FWIW)

They have a few more stores/galleries than that- but many can't do car deliveries (in part because they can't prep or fix any issues with the cars prior to delivery) so it's really about 75, tops.

So basically they have less than 1/3rd the number you think they have.

So if we go by that, and halve it for volume approximation as you suggest, we're down to a bit under 15k a month- not 48,000.

Given Teslas production M3 numbers per month right now are pretty much in that rough ballpark, and we know in some places cars are backing up in lot storage by the dozens not the thousands because they can't deliver em quite fast enough that's likely not far off either.. (production being somewhere around 17k/mo based on the last #s I saw)
 
That graph, the one I suggested, troubles me. It is clear from tesla guidance on their support page for ordering model 3, it's in reservation order. Do you have a version of that by order order. Just Dedham alone is delivering just shy of 400/month. If there are 250 such dealerships that would be about 97000 in Aug alone. I am thinking that's high (#sarcasm) but anecdotally what people are reporting is they are delivering on reservations made into April '16. That graph does not match what I perceive to be reality. Thinking in terms of multr (multiple regression analysis) I am not seeing a correlation between that graph and what appears to be facts on the ground. Others have been told delivery is by order date at this point. If Dedham is high volume compared to Parkersburg WVA, take 1/2 that, 48,000 in Aug. It could also be people who added their initial reservation, have left the effort. This is one of my principal reasons for challenging the spreadsheet. Thoughts??

Thanks for your feedback. You may well be right, but I'm not sure I understand your point. Are you suggesting that the AWD tracker data indicates more 2017 and 2018 reservers are getting cars than the anecdotal evidence? This data set is small of course although almost 1,000 orders. Also, the data is purely voluntary: some posters may be overstating their actual case, and others may be neglecting to post after they get good news. I just don't know.

In my case, I reserved January 16th, 2018. I got my VIN today. There should be tons of reservers before me, but this is limited by those who pick a config that Tesla's immature manufacturing process and supplier stream are producing. I'm AWD with EAP and Red colour, black interior, and have no trade-in, so I'm paying more than some who want a cheaper config, plus my money will come quick and easy from Tesla's standpoint. All factors that might get me a car before others who reserved before me. I'm not saying this is right, I'm just trying like you to understand their methodology. And I know of many other anecdotes of people getting their cars even though they reserved late. FYI, here's what the data looks like today for earliest VIN by typical configs:

upload_2018-9-4_22-0-52.png


I think our data may have issues for a number of reasons, including errors in entry. I'm working on an update to the entry form that should reduce errors and make it easier to update, and thereby increase the reliability of the reports. I'd appreciate feedback when I post it.

Thanks again.
 
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