@tvisdog I don’t see any data near 40% for day 1 from the two spreadsheets I know of, and which only account for a small % of buyers.
@Troy says his data does not show a significant difference between when the reservation was given and if the person has a VIN. I have to believe him since we can’t see that variable. Jkirkwood’s data has a little more lean toward day 1 but has less data points. Most buyers are not on these forums based on numbers so not represented in the sheets. However, if there are even 60% of day 1’s left who want AWD, I estimate that is 7500 units. Seems like little need for even day 2 people to have a VIN yet. If they just put some tracking info into our account pages they could save a lot of money handling calls, but I diverge.
I’m sure this sounds odd to many here, but in Salt Lake City I see the same few M3 owners driving around that I have seen for months. As in maybe 6 separate cars for a metro of 2M people. I’m sure there are many more, but not even close to 100, which still seems really low for a delivery center at this point. Most people here think Tesla is a tiny boutique brand only still. If the goal is EV adoption, flooding Cali isn’t what they need to do. That is just preaching to the choir IMHO.