AWD delivery thread

[EVnut]

So, 700 posts... ain't gonna read them all. But just curious if anyone has a good sense of what the AWD delivery rollout is looking like.
Previous S and X owner. Deposit on March 31 online night of launch, reserved 6/28 for AWD. Seems like I oughta be up there in the queue, but still just showing a RN number.

Hey Evan! 'Sup?

Being previous owner doesn't count any more (in theory). You reserved plenty early... ordered 6/28.

You can compare to me: I live an hour from Fremont, I reserved before reveal, I ordered June 26. And I've not heard a peep about where I stand. (Also note that many people all around me ordered AFTER I did, and have already taken delivery). So... your guess is as good as anybody's! Welcome to the madness.

 

[tentimesodds]

I don't hold PhD in stats, but i do some of it for leaving (and even published a book on applied algebra problems with some stat examples in it). In my humble opinion the frequentist statistics tells us that percentage of sample to population does not matter as much as the absolute size of the sample. Thus, e.g., even assuming unlimited population (infinite universe-to-sample ratio), binomial test would have approx. 39.8% to 60.2% for 95% error bounds on a 50/50 sample with no replacement. Hundreds of data points is pretty good w.r.t. error bounds.

IMO at this point what matters more is the distortion of assumptions. Namely, the biggest two are stationary distribution assumption (i.e., simply speaking, that production rate doesn't change with time, which it does) and sample bias (we have a power to yank data points from population completely at random accross all parameters, including dates, which we do not). But Tesla has the knowledge to adjust better for these than we do, which is why i am saying i am inclined to trust their estimates even more.

Does this assume that the sample is randomly selected within the population? That there aren't confounding variables that would cause overselection in the sample?

 

[jelloslug]

Not sure this is true. I got an unprompted email from a delivery specialist saying that my car was "finishing production" and had been assigned a VIN. She gave me the VIN and I'm from Massachusetts so I think it's incredibly unlikely that the above is the case.

Tesla stopped assigned VINs to individuals for the Model 3 at the factory level months ago. They are not assigning them until they are in transit at the earliest. There was a big thread about people getting VINs removed from their account a while back when they changed their assignment method.

 

[dlieu]

Part of what I was referring to was degrees of freedom /CI. <...>

So what is your thinking? are you saying they are to clear AWD with reservations in 6 weeks instead of what they say?

I am just measuring sampled fulfillment against sampled orders (US only) as it happens in august. obviously, Tesla have all the levers to adjust it as needed, and change US allocation at any moment, but so far extrapolating this data for the next 3 months does not find statistically significant discrepancy with their self-imposed targets, that's all I say. I guess i do not particularly care about registered vins and actual number of orders, just saying that their predicted rate with stationary assumptions so far is not wildly off target; in fact, it is surprisingly accurate (as if they plan to continue the same rates from now + 3ms ahead)

 

[dlieu]

Does this assume that the sample is randomly selected within the population? That there aren't confounding variables that would cause overselection in the sample?

exactly. that's what i said (methinks). completely at random with no replacement.

 

[jelloslug]

So what is your thinking? are you saying they are to clear AWD with reservations in 6 weeks instead of what they say?

I am just measuring sampled fulfillment against sampled orders (US only) as it happens in august. obviously, Tesla have all the levers to adjust it as needed, and change US allocation at any moment, but so far extrapolating this data for the next 3 months does not find statistically significant discrepancy with their self-imposed targets, that's all I say. I guess i do not particularly care about registered vins and actual number of orders, just saying that their predicted rate with stationary assumptions so far is not wildly off target; in fact, it is surprisingly accurate (as if they plan to continue the same rates from now + 3ms ahead)

Just as a single point: my car was made available to be 6 weeks early than the original estimate.

 

[wcorey]

Hey Evan! 'Sup?

Being previous owner doesn't count any more (in theory). You reserved plenty early... ordered 6/28.

You can compare to me: I live an hour from Fremont, I reserved before reveal, I ordered June 26. And I've not heard a peep about where I stand. (Also note that many people all around me ordered AFTER I did, and have already taken delivery). So... your guess is as good as anybody's! Welcome to the madness.

I didn't think so either. On the Tesla support page they show order priority is
reservation date, order date, delivery location and options. However, the woman I spoke to at Tesla this morning said previous owner was part of the priority. Now it's a case of do they give the best info they believe they have but are incorrect??

 

[EVnut]

Tesla stopped assigned VINs to individuals for the Model 3 at the factory level months ago. They are not assigning them until they are in transit at the earliest. There was a big thread about people getting VINs removed from their account a while back when they changed their assignment method.

Hmm. So it sounds that if I want to change delivery location, I should call BEFORE somebody contacts me? Friend took delivery a month ago, and the first thing asked was if he wanted to change delivery location.

I'm thinking of changing delivery from Fremont... because I haven't heard from anybody in my area who'd taken delivery there lately! They're all taking delivery at smaller satellite locations (One of those is my "local" SC, but Fremont is just 74 miles from my house, and I thought Fremont delivery would be the fastest, and most interesting).

 

[dlieu]

I don't think i had seen any inconsistency with

"select * from orders order by reservation_date, ownership, config_date where options=$batch_options limit $batch_size",

at least nothing as much so that i would label it as "madness".

Being an owner simply means that one would go in front of non-owners for the same reservation date, batch options/size/geographical allocation permitting. (in other words, not much it would seem).

Also we should allow a week or two variations due to individual circumstances during delivery. Also it increasingly looks like the vin assignment happens at significantly different date than it is actually reported to the buyers, as different people discover their vins at different times, often via individual inqueries, and thru less than automated channels.

 

[EVnut]

I don't think i had seen any inconsistency with

"select * from orders order by reservation_date, ownership, config_date where options=$batch_options limit $batch_size",

at least nothing as much so that i would label it as "madness".

Being an owner simply means that one would go in front of non-owners for the same reservation date, batch options/size permitting.

The madness I'm seeing does not come from a spreadsheet. It comes from locals who have taken delivery of my same configuration (even color and wheels), and all else is equal except that I put my order in on the same day... up to several days earlier. You'll note that not everybody is posting to the spreadsheet(s).

Plus, even without that, just joining into this thread is plenty madness enough!

 

[wcorey]

So what is your thinking? are you saying they are to clear AWD with reservations in 6 weeks instead of what they say?

I am just measuring sampled fulfillment against sampled orders (US only) as it happens in august. obviously, Tesla have all the levers to adjust it as needed, and change US allocation at any moment, but so far extrapolating this data for the next 3 months does not find statistically significant discrepancy with their self-imposed targets, that's all I say. I guess i do not particularly care about registered vins and actual number of orders, just saying that their predicted rate with stationary assumptions so far is not wildly off target; in fact, it is surprisingly accurate (as if they plan to continue the same rates from now + 3ms ahead)

I don't trust that data. Tesla said they are now hitting deliveries in the 2nd month in their spread. She went on to say VIN assignment to delivery is about a month. That tells me I should expect a VIN in a few weeks. I'm not sure I believe that either based on 10500 VINS and what I perceive to be the reservation volume between early April 2016 and Sept 2017. To answer your question, close. I believe Tesla is known for under promising and over delivering. I was told that before I even ordered, "Musk will always surprise you". I expect a VIN EOM and car late Sept. They are financially motivated to clear the reservations out. I believe they will do that.

 

[Lloyd]

Cool, can you tell if this is AWG 6?

This appears to be aluminum wire. Totally different ampacity.


Ampacity Charts

 

[dlieu]

heh... I and my friend reserved Tesla PW2 on the same date. I had it installed in 9/2017 (after a lot of open-ended wait) and am still waiting for my SGIP rebate (which Tesla turns out only submitted this May, although they confirmed they submitted it January, in writing), and my friend is still waiting for his _installation_! . If you ask him, he would say that he doesn't believe a word Musk says Now, Tesla energy is a different business of course

 

[CurtisP]

AWD, Red, -P, 18", Black
Reserved 4/4/16
Configured 6/30/18
Non-owner

I had an RWD reservation made and configured at the same time. I got to watch the VINs and deliveries run up to my date and then, right in sequence, I got the call on 7/25 to schedule delivery on 7/29.

It looks to me like the exact same thing is happening with AWD now (with a bit of a +P sideshow) Based on the spreadsheets and the messages, I haven't seen anyone post 3/31 who has a VIN or a delivery date. That tells me that they are working through 3/31 for AWD.

The RWD and AWD are definitely being treated as separate queues (think of them as separate car models), but they each seem to be going by reservation date order (and within that, I'm sure lots of variables).

I just wish we had a better handle on how many AWD reservations there were for each reservation day (and yes I know that's what the statisticians in the thread are trying to figure out). Looking forward to the end of the suspense, but I will miss it a little.

 

[glhs272]

I like to think I should have a VIN any day now.

Chicago area

3/31/16 deposit
6/26/18 config AWD

Now rolling on week 8 with no change

If it makes you feel any better, you're not alone. I am patiently waiting for my turn...

 

[DLM270]

Called Tesla and was informed that a VIN# has been assign to my M3 order, but did not learn any additional information. At least it seems the process is finally moving forward after this very long wait.

 

[NuclearPowered]

My delivery is slowly turning into a disaster.

Supposed to be taking delivery of a white awd tomorrow at 10am. No contact from Tesla today. Called ISA to confirm and he says car is still sitting somewhere in California.

Delivery again delayed at least a week.

On top of that, they changed the VIN, so my loan paperwork is now incorrect, but active and charging interest.

This is as bad as buying from a dealership.

 

[robd]

There’s definitely a big dose of randomness to the process. A co worker has no reservation, non owner ordered late July RWD got a call within a week but told them he wanted to change to AWD. They told him it would delay him a month or so but he’s getting it next week so go figure? In CA but so am I and I ordered earlier but different color. He’s doing Tesla financing so not cash expedited go figure.

 

[jsrawa]

My patience continues to wear thinner with each passing day that the stupid edit button won’t disappear. I really hate the lack of information even after you’ve put down $2500 on top of $1000.

 

[wcorey]

My patience continues to wear thinner with each passing day that the stupid edit button won’t disappear. I really hate the lack of information even after you’ve put down $2500 on top of $1000.

Yeah, they could be way more forthcoming with information. I think the trick is people shouldn't persist in trying to read the entrails.