Kind of all over the place, but deliveries seem to mostly be going to early reservation holders.
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AWD delivery thread
- Thread starter Ghostrider
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Like @Runt8 says, it's all over the place. Some early reservation holders are getting earlier deliveries...while others appear to be skipped over for now.
I have seen multiple people on the East Coast who reserved and ordered after me and who are already scheduled for delivery with the exact same build as mine. It's been 48 days since I ordered and I haven't heard a thing. I did have the option to correct things 23 days ago and was told I'd get a call within 48 hours but no call or email ever came.
Glamisduner
Active Member
My estimate still says Sept-Nov. If they push it past then I will likely cancel my order. I'm kind of over it at this point and will just used the money I have saved up for something else.
You are in the first batch of customers that will be processed for AWD. That's not only what the rep told me this morning but is on their website. Remember the adage, "A watched pot never boils". Expect a Sept delivery.
That's commitment. At this point, after the transfer of $2500, you forfeit it if you cancel. Everybody's estimate says that, if not Oct-Dec. As I said earlier. Delivery is generally 30 days after VIN, per Tesla employee...Some say, "yeah but..." you have two choices, chill or walk away from $3500.
Glamisduner
Active Member
I dunno, I think they may return the full amount if their estimate is a month off and it costs you $3500 because of it. Hopefully it won't come to this, but if it does I'd rather get back the $1000 refundable and lose $2500 than lose $3500 in tax credits, at which point I could also just switch to my alternate configuration.
SR, Premium RWD AERO, and just consider it a slower daily driver that I won't keep for as long of a period of time, but for the amount of money saved (nearly 25k) on this config over current, I could deal with the reduced performance and reduced Federal Incentive.
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There have been several people reporting that they were able to get their full deposit back without any problems.
jelloslug
Active Member
I reserved on 3/31, configured on 6/9, am a previous S owner and the car I rejected was matched on 8/3. I'm hoping that the replacement will be matched this week.
Thanks all...I did stall a bit configuring, so that probably is pushing me back a bit. I keep seeing all the new VINs acquired by Tesla and thinking they must be pushing them out and given my previous ownership and early deposit date would have expected at least a VIN assigned. But I'll be patient...but there's no way I quit watching the pot for boiling!
jkirkwood001
Active Member
I like to think I should have a VIN any day now.
Chicago area
3/31/16 deposit
6/26/18 config AWD
Now rolling on week 8 with no change
The tracking spreadsheet at the time of this writing shows vin assignment of a rate of 5.1 AWD non-P vins per day in August, which was fairly flat (high variance per day, but not a lot of change between beginning and end of August).
if i take all outstanding May/June configurations (which i understand is what had the sep-nov promise) i get roughly 113 days to clear them. Which gets us (almost) squarely into Sep-Nov time frame.
Now i understand people are not wanting to deal with data collection completely randomly (sample bias of unknown effect), and some may have been slacking reporting vins, and that future dymamics of production rates may still change. But this gives me (some) faith in Tesla's estimates and that they did the math too with their order data before giving out the sep-nov estimate. With a little luck November should see all orders with any existing reservation date fulfilled, it seems (or at least manufactured).
if i take all outstanding May/June configurations (which i understand is what had the sep-nov promise) i get roughly 113 days to clear them. Which gets us (almost) squarely into Sep-Nov time frame.
Now i understand people are not wanting to deal with data collection completely randomly (sample bias of unknown effect), and some may have been slacking reporting vins, and that future dymamics of production rates may still change. But this gives me (some) faith in Tesla's estimates and that they did the math too with their order data before giving out the sep-nov estimate. With a little luck November should see all orders with any existing reservation date fulfilled, it seems (or at least manufactured).
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The newer order agreements say this. The original ones say otherwise.
One thing to consider, I was exchanging msgs with Troy yesterday and, as I recall, he said about 2% of people were reporting at this point at all. If that's correct, multiple (or divide) as the case may be, by 50.
What we do know is, perhaps a week, or more, ago Tesla registered 10,500 VINs exclusively for M3 AWD. I believe that is far more pertinent data than an opt-in self reporting of unknown sample to universe ratio. The lower the sample size the less predictive any conclusions. Again, I'd go with the 10,500 VINs registered and work backwards from there.
The bulk of Freemont output, 5,500 cars/wk, will be M3 AWD. Again, lack of reliable data on how many M3s leave the production line/wk. I think it's safe it is the bulk of 5,500. Tesla wants to be solidly profitable, right now those orders represent liabilities, they don't become income until the owner signs the paperwork. Ss and Xs are far more manual production. I'd bet M3s represent higher margins therefor I'd go with they'll focus their efforts there.
Just my educated opinion...I could be off some.
I don't hold PhD in stats, but i do some of it for leaving (and even published a book on applied algebra problems with some stat examples in it). In my humble opinion the frequentist statistics tells us that percentage of sample to population does not matter as much as the absolute size of the sample. Thus, e.g., even assuming unlimited population (infinite universe-to-sample ratio), binomial test would have approx. 39.8% to 60.2% for 95% error bounds on a 50/50 sample with no replacement. Hundreds of data points is pretty good w.r.t. error bounds.
IMO at this point what matters more is the distortion of assumptions. Namely, the biggest two are stationary distribution assumption (i.e., simply speaking, that production rate doesn't change with time, which it does) and sample bias (we have a power to yank data points from population completely at random accross all parameters, including dates, which we do not). But Tesla has the knowledge to adjust better for these than we do, which is why i am saying i am inclined to trust their estimates even more.
Not sure this is true. I got an unprompted email from a delivery specialist saying that my car was "finishing production" and had been assigned a VIN. She gave me the VIN and I'm from Massachusetts so I think it's incredibly unlikely that the above is the case.
Part of what I was referring to was degrees of freedom /CI. We 'know' there are 420,000 cars reserved/ordered. Some of them are overseas, some are for standard range battery, some are for LR RWD (largely turned to revenue at this point) and the rest are AWD. I believe Tesla said orders were about 50/50 SR to LR or maybe it was RWD to AWD. Where I'm going with this is to simplify 210,000 are US, 105,000 are SR, 50,000 are AWD. Yes there are assumptions and some error injected in that mathematical educated guesswork.
The other interesting thing Troy said, there were several, was he felt initially maybe 9% of actual reservations were self reporting but felt now it was around 2. This implies incomplete data. He also said he removed what he perceived to be bad data, reservations with no invites, invites with no orders. Very old orders with no VIN, VINs with no date or delivery. So, yeah, bad data. If they have 50,000 AWD orders and can crank out 5,000-6,000 per week. Then there is color batching, they may spend a week doing Obsidian Black and the next week doing MCR.
Granted likely all lines aren't doing AWD but I bet the bulk are. So many assumptions are predicated on facts not in evidence. Then there are the inevitable unknown unknowns.
I don't have a PhD in Math, I do have 12 semester hours in statistics and much of my career was spent working with statistical data. And, at the end of the day, VINs will arrive when they arrive. I do feel bad for those who ordered 2 1/2 yrs ago. I ordered a yr ago.
It is my considered opinion those people who ordered March and April of 2016, will be the first to be built. A friend of mine in La Jolla, CA said there are model 3 AWDs all over the place now.
Does anyone have a link to the delivery checklist? I'm scheduled to pick up my dual motor tomorrow and need something to refer to.
I was not offered a choice either. Even if I had, I'd have gone PUP.
Google Tesla Model 3 delivery checklist.
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