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AXPW Investment Discussion

Discussion in 'Off Topic' started by Nicu.Mihalache, Apr 23, 2013.

  1. Nicu.Mihalache

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    That is what you think. You should watch AXPW in one or two years. If you remember me, multiply that price by 170,000 or 200,000 :D

    It's exactly because many are afraid of that raise that I managed to buy near the all time low in an illiquid and volatile stock.
     
  2. smorgasbord

    smorgasbord Active Member

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    That's the great thing about Axion - every couple of months you get a new opportunity to buy at the new all time low!
     
  3. Nicu.Mihalache

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    "Good things come to those who wait"
     
  4. Johan

    Johan Took a TSLA bear test. Came back negative.

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    Obviuosly it's easy to make fun of JP and his holdings in Axion when you see how wrong hes been about TSLA and how much AXPW has dipped over the last few years. However it would seem that Nicu believes in AXPW is undervalued and from a strictly investment oportunity standpoint it would be interesting to hear why. So Nicu: would care to elaborate just a little on why you think AXPW might be a buy at current prices?
     
  5. Nicu.Mihalache

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    I think this is not the right place to elaborate on Axion, but I hope a link to my comments will not be considered too off topic to be hidden / deleted :p (be sure to check my last comment there)
    Traderhood Axion Power – A Battery Manufacturer Charging Forward
     
  6. Johan

    Johan Took a TSLA bear test. Came back negative.

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    Thank you so much for that. Definitely worth looking in to. The low volume/liquidity is a little bit of a turn off, both shouldn't be a deal breaker. I guees it doesn't have to be "neither-nor" when it comes to batteries but that there is a place and niche for many different chemistries, sizes and characteristics in the coming years (off grid storage, maybe some types of larger hybrid vehicles, non-drive-train power in trucks etc. etc.). (Cautionary note to self: the A123 shares that were bought cheaply, but not for free, are now worth exactly $0).
     
  7. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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    Though I agree with very little Petersen says I did take a small position in Axion a while back because I do think the technology has a window of opportunity to make some real gains in certain applications. However the clock is ticking as lithium continues to get better and cheaper and I see Axion as a total gamble at this point. The predicted financing has not yet taken place and the share price keeps getting hammered in anticipation. Since Petersen and Axion are joined at the hip I do consider it appropriate for discussion in this thread, since much of his nonsense is generated by his defense of Axion over lithium and EV's.
     
  8. Nicu.Mihalache

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    A123 had build manufacturing capacity much larger than needed / orders and then sold batteries at a loss. They hoped to fill the order book and then take advantage of economies of scale and better manufacturing capacity utilization. And unfortunately they got hit by a serious manufacturing defect and they were not sufficiently strong financially to absorb that (note to TSLA investors: a cash rise would be a great protection against any blow from a large recall).

    Their battery was very expensive, near $1000 / kWh. And the energy density was lower than other chemistries. Their advantages were safety and power density, and probably low degradation from cycling.

    If you want to compare to PbC, it is inherently safe, has great power density and durability, very low energy density - but it's CHEAP. That's why it will be used where weight and volume are not an issue.

    Nobody ever expected Axion clients to take so long to validate the battery, that's another of the reasons why the shares are so low and they have to go one more time to the market for cash. It seems they will try to find a strategic partner (as Toyota, Daimler or Panasonic for Tesla) who will invest not only for the shares, but also because they have a business partnership. Nobody outside the company knows if this will work out.
     
  9. smorgasbord

    smorgasbord Active Member

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    #9 smorgasbord, Apr 24, 2013
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2013
    Let's be clear: If it wasn't for Petersen, none of us would be talking about Axion. It just wouldn't be on anyone's radar. Petersen was a director at Axion, and claims to have sunk over $1 million into the company's stock back when it was trading about 5-10X what it's trading at now. Petersen found that attacking Tesla gave him a larger audience in which to push his own personal wealth building agenda, which is propping up Axion's stock. It has worked so far, probably saving Axion from folding completely.

    From the company's own 10K and 2012 yearly conference call:
    1) Axion's auditor's have put a "Going Concern" note on the 10K.
    2) Axion is going to run out of money on April 30, 2013. That's less than a week away.
    3) Product sales were under $10 million, and 81% of that comes from one customer. Similar numbers for the previous year, too.
    4) Cash flow was a negative $8.6 million last year, and negative $11.4 million the previous year.
    5) All of the questions on the Conference Call were posed by individual investors that are all on the SeekingAlpha blog. Institutions own less than 7% right now.

    With a market cap of $28 million, losses each year that amount to more than 1/3 of that, and an EPS of -0.08, it's sure hard to think of Axion as "undervalued."

    The entire premise of the company is a variant on the lead acid battery, that doesn't get as damaged as traditional lead acid or AGM batteries when discharged relatively deeply and then charged quickly (called Dynamic Charge Acceptance). If true, that's a reasonably good thing, but unfortunately, the cost has been too high. Petersen doesn't tell you that. Some math shows that Norfolk Southern purchased batteries from Axion at about $800/kWh, which is roughly double the price that Tesla sells its lithium batteries for at retail. Add in the enormous weight penalty, and its no wonder no company has yet committed to buying Axion's product despite years of looking into it.

    The claim that these companies have long testing cycles just doesn't hold water. BMW, for instance, is coming out with new hybrid technologies every year under the marketing name "Efficient Dynamics." And, the claim that all previous institutional investors sold all their Axion stock due to reasons not related to the company's future success also doesn't hold water. Petersen publicly moaned about these investment companies selling at a loss because they had to, but it turns out that they sold for more than they could today - so they probably did the smart thing by not letting their money ride even further down. There's just excuse after excuse from Petersen on why Axion hasn't turned the corner.

    Petersen has tried everything he can think of to prop up Axion and therefore his own personal portfolio. He has acknowledged in presentations at lead-acid battery conferences that lithium batteries are competition. He attacks Tesla and lithium batteries in general, often by stroking fears of safety or specious mineral resource constraints. He attacks plug-in cars, but not plug-in trains. The obvious reason is the plug-in cars are using lithium and one plug-in train company is looking at Axion's batteries.

    No-one outside the company knows whether it'll complete its financing within 6 more days, or what the terms of that financing will be. No-one anywhere knows if any of the companies that have been testing for years and years will finally make a purchase, nor for how much. Buying Axion stock is literally gambling.
     
  10. Nicu.Mihalache

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    Indeed, it has low sales because it uses its factory for legacy lead-acid batteries - they have just exited R&D stage end of 2012 - Tesla had 10 years of continuous losses until they started the real production, what was your point again?

    And, of course, as discussed many times, they need to raise money by the end of the month - that's no secret. Of course the very first prototypes are more expensive than what those batteries will get even after moderate production.

    And you are counting it wrong, for the applications Axion is pursuing, it's not the price per kWh of battery (I have already said they are not great energy batteries), but the price per total kWh cycled by the battery over its lifetime. Given that the "normal" Li-ion are rated to 500-1000 cycles and the Model S batteries should be 2000 or by some estimates 5000 cycles, when you look to Axion batteries, you should divide the price by 20 to 50 per kWh (100,000 cycles).

    BMW or any other car manufacturer will not introduce a new tech without torturous testing and without the guarantee of production capacity. They may even wait for the cost curve to come down a bit. The trains are not plug-in, just hybrid. Only the switcher locomotive that replaces a diesel engine idled 10h / day in the middle of the town is a plug-in.

    John Petersen is biased in part because he put in almost $2M in AXPW, but your comment seems even more biased and I do not see any reasonable motivation for that.
     
  11. dsm363

    dsm363 Roadster + Sig Model S

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    Tesla would likely have been profitably a long time ago (and were briefly) if it weren't for the Model S so not a fair comparison.
     
  12. Nicu.Mihalache

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    Any R&D company has continuous losses until it "graduates" to a real company. The length of that period depends on more things than I care to count.

    Btw, I even tried to keep Axion out of this forum. I am not suggesting anyone to buy that.

    It's just that I have been accused by the inquisition to be a friend of the devil by buying AXPW. I simply do not think in ideologic terms and I say BS to that. That's all :)
     
  13. rolosrevenge

    rolosrevenge Dr. EVS

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    My biggest concern with AXPW is the competition for grid storage systems from second life EV batteries. It's almost never mentioned but I see in about 5 to 10 years all of the Leaf and Model S and whatnot batteries that need to be replaced will still have 50-70% capacity and 5 - 10 years left with that and can be used as cheap grid storage. This will seriously undercut anyone who's looking to make brand new grid storage systems.
     
  14. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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    Yes, I have brought that up a number of times to Mr. Petersen and drones.
     
  15. Nicu.Mihalache

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    #15 Nicu.Mihalache, Apr 24, 2013
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2013
    By the time those packs are available (not to talk about unpredictable supply and quality), if Axion is not long dead and buried, you will just pocket your 100x gains and go to greener pastures.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Off topic - if I could guess that well in the market, I would already be a billionaire LOL
     
  16. qwk

    qwk Model S P2681

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    R&D in a mature technology? Lead-Acid has been around for a very long time, and the technology is not only mature, but at a standstill due to better alternatives. The only thing lead-acid has going for it, it's cheap, which AXPW has managed to make expensive.
    This company is certainly doomed.
     
  17. Nicu.Mihalache

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    I'm sure the lead electrodes had 1500 square meters contact surface per gram and tens of thousands of useful recharge cycles
    PbC® Battery Overview

    Sometimes silence is golden!
     
  18. qwk

    qwk Model S P2681

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    You left out the "cost per kwh is more expensive than most li-ion technology". How convenient.

    Anything with enough money dumped into it can be what you want. The difference is COST.
     
  19. Nicu.Mihalache

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    I think you have not payed attention to the debate. If you were genuinely curious, I could explain a second time. As it seems you are starting a crussade, I just have to let you go and fight by yourself.
     
  20. mitch672

    mitch672 Active Member

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    Not even worth arguing about. If you want to gamble with $250, you can be the proud owner of 1,000 shares of AXPW.
    It will either go to zero or be worth a lot more. Place your bets (or not), gentlemen.
     

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