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Badly missing the lane change feature in Y (with no FSD package)

MikeHolliday

Member
May 9, 2020
329
216
Worthington, Ohio
In my previous 3 Tesla's I had EAP/FSD but the price was more reasonable. I do miss the auto lane change on AP but there's no way in hell I'm spending $10K for FSD in it's current form. Especially since Tesla got my money for FSD on 3 different occasions.

I'm hopeful that the FSD subscription option will arrive in 2021 sooner than later. This will be a huge benefit for those leasing vehicles.
I think that when people see the price for subscription that they will be shocked. According to my calculations it will need to be over $300/month to prevent Tesla from cannibalizing those who would have purchased FSD. For example: if FSD is $10,000 and I purchase it for my car. That is a $10,000 up front capital that Tesla has to use part of it. Remember that Tesla only gets to use part of your FSD payment as they add more features. Some people are hoping for $150/month, but at that number, if one person switches from a full payment per month to a subscription on a new car purchase it will take Tesla an additional 67 Sales of the subscription service to recoup to loss.
 

bchan911

Member
Jan 29, 2020
157
141
Toronto, Canada
I am not referring to the Navigate on Autopilot lane change capability where it automatically changes lanes as needed. I don't like that feature.

What I loved so much in my M3 and now missing in MY is the ability to change the lane by pressing stalk, without cancelling AP.

But again remember, I paid $5K more specifically to get AP (with lane change feature ) in 2018 for my M3. For MY I paid nothing and got AP (minus the lane change). So Tesla put the basic AP feature into the base price of the car, which is great.
Ooohhhh! My bad sorry! That makes total sense. I've always had FSD. I totally get what your talking about now. Yea that would suck. Pressing the stalk down twice to engage AP is annoying sometimes and doesn't register all the time, not to imagine having to do it after each lane change.

I think EAP will rear it's head again at some point in 2021. I think in its current iteration EAP is the best bang for you buck. Coming with FSD I don't use half of the features cause they're so gimmicky.

I'm crossing my fingers for y'all in a limited time EAP offer!
 
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Ol'Blue

Member
Oct 12, 2018
247
138
Vancouver
This is the boat I’m in. I have FSD on one car, and was hoping EAP might come back for the other car. Time will tell. EAP is best bang for buck in many (not all) respects.
 

theslimshadyist

Trampa!
Jan 4, 2016
1,123
617
Tampa, FL
Do you lose more value on the FSD with each sale than the extra the subscription will cost?

Figure the subscription costs $200/month, you are paying the full cost of FSD every ~4 years. If you got 60% of the FSD value back with every sale, that would only cost you ~$166/month for the car that you own for 2 years. (And in some case you could come out ahead, for example if you had paid $5k for FSD but didn't sell the car until it was valued at $10k, then even at 60% you come out $1k ahead.)

To answer your question in your previous post.... I sell my cars outright and FSD did not bring additional value to the selling price. However, it was a differentiator that made the cars more appealing. FWIW, all 3 of my previous cars sold within 24 hours of listing them online. So, I guess there's some value that goes into that equation.
 

theslimshadyist

Trampa!
Jan 4, 2016
1,123
617
Tampa, FL
I think that when people see the price for subscription that they will be shocked. According to my calculations it will need to be over $300/month to prevent Tesla from cannibalizing those who would have purchased FSD. For example: if FSD is $10,000 and I purchase it for my car. That is a $10,000 up front capital that Tesla has to use part of it. Remember that Tesla only gets to use part of your FSD payment as they add more features. Some people are hoping for $150/month, but at that number, if one person switches from a full payment per month to a subscription on a new car purchase it will take Tesla an additional 67 Sales of the subscription service to recoup to loss.

I believe it will be just the opposite. If you look at the historical data trends within the google sheets order trackers, FSD purchase at time of order has trended way down even with improved features compared to a year ago. I'm totally convinced it's because of the $10K price tag.

If there was such strong demand for FSD at $10K, why even introduce a subscription option?

Now to address your cannibalization point, I don't feel that will be the case. When I ordered my loaded out P100D that car cost me $164K. When I purchased my loaded out Model S Performance, I paid right around $120K. Basically the same car 1.5 years later. Sure, there were a lot of upset Model S owners but unfortunately that's how things go with technology and scalability.

FSD is IP not COGS so they don't have raw materials costs that they have to recoup.
 

MikeHolliday

Member
May 9, 2020
329
216
Worthington, Ohio
It has nothing to do with material costs at all. It has to do with the fact that if the subscription price is to low then no one will purchase it up front and everyone would go to a subscription.

Some have proposed a subscription rate of $150/month. At $150/month 67 people would be required to replace just 1 individual each month electing a subscription over paying the full amount. At that rate Tesla would lose revenue compare to today.

In order to continue a strong stock value Tesla must continue to show a strong revenue growth. Having FSD selling for a price that would generate an overall lower revenue would therefore lower Teslas overall growth.
 
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theslimshadyist

Trampa!
Jan 4, 2016
1,123
617
Tampa, FL
It has nothing to do with material costs at all. It has to do with the fact that if the subscription price is to low then no one will purchase it up front and everyone would go to a subscription.

Some have proposed a subscription rate of $150/month. At $150/month 67 people would be required to replace just 1 individual each month electing a subscription over paying the full amount. At that rate Tesla would lose revenue compare to today.

In order to continue a strong stock value Tesla must continue to show a strong revenue growth. Having FSD selling for a price that would generate an overall lower revenue would therefore lower Teslas overall growth.

I believe $150/month is wishful thinking and I would expect it to run roughly $250-$300/month.
 

Ol'Blue

Member
Oct 12, 2018
247
138
Vancouver
It has nothing to do with material costs at all. It has to do with the fact that if the subscription price is to low then no one will purchase it up front and everyone would go to a subscription.

Some have proposed a subscription rate of $150/month. At $150/month 67 people would be required to replace just 1 individual each month electing a subscription over paying the full amount. At that rate Tesla would lose revenue compare to today.

In order to continue a strong stock value Tesla must continue to show a strong revenue growth. Having FSD selling for a price that would generate an overall lower revenue would therefore lower Teslas overall growth.


I think you’re missing the point of subscription. No matter the price, it’s an ongoing income for the life of the company. It creates stability, that is more valuable then a large chunk of money at once.

It has also been proven in the last few years that there is more money to be made with subscription based ownership of things. It looks like less money, but the math works in the benefit of the service providers. In this case Tesla.

Imagine Tesla was able to have a consistent revenue stream coming in, and not depending on car sales or solar sales and etc. This is way better for the bottom line the bad times, and a boost to the prosperous times.

People who understand how to make the most of their money may choose to do subscription knowing that their investments of the price of FSD in certain stocks will more then pay for it. Others have enough money that paying full price makes little difference to their lifestyle and will find that more convenient.
 

mark95476

Active Member
Jun 21, 2020
1,504
875
Bay Area CA
Yeah, lane changes is almost essential for autopilot.

Another example:
The chime on green lights is a great FSD feature. People going without will say it's easy enough to pay attention when waiting at red lights. Too many of us are distracted these days.

When the lane changes were introduced, I didn't think it was a big deal. Anyway I need to press the indicator stack, so in my mind I had minimized the value addition it brought. But over the period of years and tens of thousands miles driving in highways and city roads in Autopilot, I had always used it to change lanes. It worked great as long there were semi decent lanes.

I did not realize how much it added value and enhanced AP, until I started driving my new Model Y (with no FSD package) and boy how annoying it is to cancel AP, change the lane and wait for the steering wheel icon to show up and then engage again. So I end up using AP less when frequent lane changes are needed.

I don't begrudge Tesla for reducing the basic AP capabilities, as they have also reduced the price. I bought my Model Y for less price than the base cost of Model 3 LR (without the $5K AP package when Model 3 was released).
 
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