Good question, Norbert. Tesla now has the heavy burden of achieving profitability targets, and most eyes will be on it. It may not be fair, but this is the way things go. People will start to look at actual multiples rather than theoretical ones, and Tesla will have to prove shares are worth AMZN-style multiples without the cash and working capital performance of such enterprises in the near-term.
Actually completely agree about the importance of achieving profitability, just not that the *amount* (above zero) would be important. What I think does matter, however, is how much Tesla will be able to invest, during 2013, in future products (or perhaps also in extending the reach of Model S).
Right now Musk says the business will get to a modest non-GAAP profit in Q1 through production cost improvement and R&D cuts. This will become the focal point of expectations, barring something absolutely spectacular (think bigger than Supercharger) before the next call. The cost reduction will be challenging. You can do a little math and see that they need to carve away about $8-10k cost per car in Q1. They can probably pull it off, but if they miss it's a huge disappointment.
Since it was already 6 weeks into the quarter, and since Elon is known to be present on the factory floor, so to speak, and knows what goes on, on a daily basis, I'd expect they will get a least very close, which would be good enough in my view. (BTW, for Q4 2012, I always thought the important part is that they reach full production rate at the end of the year, not so much that they meet specific sales numbers. In so far as Tesla will become profitable already in Q1, I'd see this as a confirmation of what I thought was important.)
The R&D may be a little more problematic when it comes to your poit about "new products". I think they will hint at another Model X slip if he really takes the tough decision to go under $60M in Q1. This won't affect FY2013, so it's a matter of how well Musk can sell it.
I think improving the Model S production, adding software features, etc, will also benefit the Model X. If Model S can in fact reach sales numbers of 30,000/year to 40,000/year, as was recently predicted, then this will already fulfill part of Model X's role, so a slip there would be a natural consequence perhaps.
FYI my current trading position is Jan 14 40.00 calls. I think the next quarter or two will be rugged.
Ah, I see, thanks. And this quarter already seems rugged enough for two, so I do think it will be rugged on whatever level things will develop.
