Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Banning Shorts

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Will such a person be vilified? I wouldn't. A price target of $295 is a respectable opinion if you're pessimistic about Tesla's growth and margins. Although I disagree with the target, I like to see such analyses, because frankly if they're sufficiently pessimistic they put a good downside limit on the stock's long-term value, which means "margin of safety".

Do any of the sell side analysts have a price of zero? I've seen prices of $190-$290.
 
The professional analysts are *mostly* not spreading the sort of "Tesla bankrupt" nonsense that the short-sellers are spreading, certainly.

https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/tsla/price-target

*Mostly*. David Tamberinno at Goldman Sachs is simply saying "sell" without a price target, and claiming demand problems (insane), which I can only interpret as predicting Tesla collapse. Tambourine-O is really terrible.

Among the others who are making predictions, the lowest price target is $99 from Gordon Johnson at Vertical Group, which is absurd. Second most ridiculous is Ryan Brinkman at JP Morgan, with a target price of $180. My own analysis shows there's no chance of Tesla going that low whatsoever.

There are a few "mild bears" with high-200s price targets in there as well (Toni Sacconaghi at Bernstein, Joseph Spak at RBC, Efraim Levy at CFRA, and now Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley). Levy and Sacconaghi are both saying things known to be false, while Jonas is making the implausible claim that Tesla isn't going to sustain 5000/week. Their arguments are not convincing. Spak asked really dumb questions about reservations. So the "mild bear" analysts are all idiots.

I'd like to see a competent one. So far Schonelucht and brian45011 at TMC are better bearish analysts than any of these analyst dudes, which is one reason I hang out here.
 
Image1.jpg


Shortest post ever to get two Disagrees...
 
  • Funny
Reactions: SW2Fiddler
I’ve found the investment threads to be far and away the most interesting reading in my ~3 years on TMC. I’m curious why you care.

I think that they are a superficial distraction. For example--investors care deeply about the speed of the Model 3 ramp up, and have moaned endlessly about missed deadlines. This is understandable because they're driven by daily stock prices. But when we put those deadlines and delays in the context of the broader picture--the extraordinary progress against profound long-term goals--the missed deadlines, in the way they are discussed by investors, are kind of petty.
 
I think that they are a superficial distraction. For example--investors care deeply about the speed of the Model 3 ramp up, and have moaned endlessly about missed deadlines. This is understandable because they're driven by daily stock prices. But when we put those deadlines and delays in the context of the broader picture--the extraordinary progress against profound long-term goals--the missed deadlines, in the way they are discussed by investors, are kind of petty.

Thanks for the reply. I don't disagree RE being distracted by daily volatility. But then again, I'm not a day trader. I'm a fan of Tesla first and a long term investor second. To each his own I say. I am in fact exceptionally interested in the Model 3 ramp - because I know how critical it is to Tesla's success - regardless of my investment. And I think it's exciting to watch it play out.

The few investment threads on TMC have routinely proven to have very strong signal to noise ratios. Relatively speaking, I would say they are the opposite of superficial distractions. Sure, there are uber bulls and bears that I discount (and ignore), but on the whole, these threads have proven to be really thoughtful, interesting and educational. That's my I'm on TMC. Don't get me wrong, I enjoy looking at pictures of peoples' chrome deletes and other mods as much as the next Tesla fan, but I enjoy reading peoples' theories and analysis' more.

Similarly, I'm glad that the forum has sections on Energy and even SpaceX vs. just "Tesla Motors". The SpaceX forums also have a very high signal to noise ratio. There are really smart and passionate members posting there. Anyway, that's my defense of the content that I enjoy consuming most on TMC and hope remains a constant presence. If we're talking past each other - that's cool, we can go on our merry way. Cheers! :)
 
Thanks for the reply. I don't disagree RE being distracted by daily volatility. But then again, I'm not a day trader. I'm a fan of Tesla first and a long term investor second. To each his own I say. I am in fact exceptionally interested in the Model 3 ramp - because I know how critical it is to Tesla's success - regardless of my investment. And I think it's exciting to watch it play out.

The few investment threads on TMC have routinely proven to have very strong signal to noise ratios. Relatively speaking, I would say they are the opposite of superficial distractions. Sure, there are uber bulls and bears that I discount (and ignore), but on the whole, these threads have proven to be really thoughtful, interesting and educational. That's my I'm on TMC. Don't get me wrong, I enjoy looking at pictures of peoples' chrome deletes and other mods as much as the next Tesla fan, but I enjoy reading peoples' theories and analysis' more.

Similarly, I'm glad that the forum has sections on Energy and even SpaceX vs. just "Tesla Motors". The SpaceX forums also have a very high signal to noise ratio. There are really smart and passionate members posting there. Anyway, that's my defense of the content that I enjoy consuming most on TMC and hope remains a constant presence. If we're talking past each other - that's cool, we can go on our merry way. Cheers! :)

I agree that Tesla's strategies and business performance are fascinating and important. This is different than the investment discussions, but I think the two of us are close enough. Cheers!:)
 
  • Like
Reactions: neroden
Short sellers are the very definition of evil.

Short sellers are not investors.


nonsense. x-posting to a more relevant thread -- sorry for the duplication.

It is well established that short selling is a way to bring information to the market (i.e., the stock price) when that information is had only by people who are not long. They bring that information to the market by borrowing, and then selling the borrowed shares. Now the market has that information. The supply of the shares goes up, the price goes down. The market benefits from that information by averting a bubble -- more accurate market prices have positive externalities.

The short sellers in the case of Tesla have had two functions: one good and one bad. To some extent, they have averted a bubble in Tesla shares: even if Tesla succeeds wildy, its discounted future cash flow isn't infinite, and therefore its current stock price should have some cap. The short sellers help inform that cap and help moderate the rise as future projected cash flows are converted to real cash flows over time.

The second function that some short sellers do is bad -- they try to manufacture and exploit misinformation. Sometimes they do it based on a hunch of actual information or suspected accounting misdeeds, but then to drive their thesis, they manufacture more misinformation. That part of short selling is bad, is well described in the OP, but it isn't intrinsic to short selling -- It is just a common artifact and practice of some people who engage in dishonest selling either long or short.

See https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d14/d1413.pdf

persuasively showing and then concluding "We have shown that short selling serves a socially useful function, whether the market operates rationally or is dominated by noise traders. Generally, then, regulators should permit short sales to the same extent as “longs.” Regulation may be needed to prevent market manipulation and panics, but any constraint on short sales should be narrowly tailored to these concerns and should also apply to long positions."

Honest short selling brings price information to the market, averts or reduces bubbles, and results in less volatility.

But the temptation for so many short sellers to engage in misinformation or outright stock manipulation and interference with business relations is too great for some -- especially when they are staring into a dark abyss of covering a rising stock.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ohmman