On the bright side, Barclays said that Tesla is making progress on some key product milestones, as stock grant data shows that the Model X Beta prototype is complete, while the Model 3 Alpha prototype is considered "probable of achievement." Barclays has "Equal Weight" rating and a $190 price target on Tesla shares.
- Tesla is not only selling "build to orders" cars, but also selling cars available for immediate sale. While elevated finished goods inventory is somewhat a function of in-transit vehicles, it is also a reflection of a new strategy of holding new cars available for immediate sale (beyond loaners and showroom models), as well as potentially used cars. This is a departure from the past – indicating that Tesla production is not as much of a build-to-order model as it had been historically.
- Capital spending has been for Tesla Model S and Model X upgrades — not its big gigafactory. Capital spending data (as seen in “Construction in Progress” PP&E) indicates that Tesla is spending ahead of demand. However, with only $107mn of spend on the gigafactory to date, plus minimal spend on gigafactory/Model 3 reflected in R&D and SG&A, it is yet another reminder that Tesla has yet to realize the uptick in spend associated with the gigafactory and Model 3.
- Customer deposits now include pre-delivery prepayments. Whereas the customer deposit line has historically been a gauge of order activity, the inclusion of prepayments now makes it more difficult to gauge underlying order activity.
Barclays problems in Tesla 10-K - Business Insider
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