Baron Capital "We believe that BMW will likely phase out ICE over the next 10 years"

[CalDreamin]

Europe´s renewable ( green ) electricity production is about 15 percent of total ; is the US percentage considerably higher ?

The percentage of electricity from renewable sources varies a lot in different regions of the U.S. Some states have a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) mandate that requires utilities to provide an increasing percentage of electricity from renewable sources.

My utility PG&E serves 15 million customers in central and northern California (including Tesla's factory and headquarters). Last year PG&E's power mix was 22% RPS eligible renewables plus 11% large hydroelectric power, totaling 33% renewables. (Large hydro doesn't count toward the RPS mandate).

These numbers do not count distributed (e.g. rooftop) solar PV as that production isn't metered as a grid source, though it reduces grid demand. PG&E's service area has 1/4 of all distributed solar PV systems in the U.S.

By 2020 RPS eligible renewables will have to be at least 33% of California's grid power. Adding in the large hydro will put California grid at ~44% renewables, plus whateever the distributed solar generation adds up to.
http://eea.epri.com/pdf/epri-energy...Energy_Policy_and_CO2_Mitigation_Bottorff.pdf

 

[Cosmacelf]

It'll be sooner than that. Straubel and Elon were saying minimum 30% cost reduction on battery just by efficiency of production, without any tech advances and that tech will advance. So 30% is the very conservative baseline.

Tesla is rumored to be in the $200-250/kwh cost now, so if they start hitting near $100/kwh the initial cost of an ICE and EV will be about the same. Factor in long term savings on an EV and it'll dominate sales.

So, 5 years from now when Tesla has $100/kwh batteries shipping in bulk, we'll be at that tipping point. The only thing saving ICE vendors for a little while will be that Tesla, and whoever else invests similarly, simply won't be able to meet worldwide demand.

Yes are correct in everything you say BUT the battery factories still have to be built. Even if they wanted to, no ICE manufacturer can sell a popular BEV (as in a million cars a year) today, three years from nor five years from now. When the gigafactories start being produced at the rate of one per year, then we can talk about ICE transition.

I honestly think that once batteries become available in high volume, the ICE manufacturers will follow.

And Tesla/Panasonic will supply them with battery packs...

 

[perdru]

The percentage of electricity from renewable sources varies a lot in different regions of the U.S. Some states have a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) mandate that requires utilities to provide an increasing percentage of electricity from renewable sources.

My utility PG&E serves 15 million customers in central and northern California (including Tesla's factory and headquarters). Last year PG&E's power mix was 22% RPS eligible renewables plus 11% large hydroelectric power, totaling 33% renewables. (Large hydro doesn't count toward the RPS mandate).

These numbers do not count distributed (e.g. rooftop) solar PV as that production isn't metered as a grid source, though it reduces grid demand. PG&E's service area has 1/4 of all distributed solar PV systems in the U.S.

By 2020 RPS eligible renewables will have to be at least 33% of California's grid power. Adding in the large hydro will put California grid at ~44% renewables, plus whateever the distributed solar generation adds up to.
http://eea.epri.com/pdf/epri-energy...Energy_Policy_and_CO2_Mitigation_Bottorff.pdf

Thank you for the interesting PG&E leaflet ,
however California seems to be way ahead of the rest of the US which is more similar to Europe..

 

[DaveH]

Baron funds holds 1m tsla shares, average price above $200

http://www.baronfunds.com/News-Commentary/Library/Quarterly-Reports/2014/Quarterly-Report-93014.pdf/

CNBC interviews Ron Baron of Baron Capital. BC has ~$20 Billion under management.


http://www.cnbc.com/id/102161115?__source=yahoo%7cfinance%7cheadline%7cheadline%7cstory&par=yahoo&doc=102161115


Baron thinks "all of us will likely be Tesla customers in 25 years" because its competitors are already being compelled to build and sell electric cars. "They do not want to build such cars," Baron wrote. "As a result, they are developing electric expertise so slowly that the lead Tesla has built up through its fast growing staff ... may soon become insurmountable."


"Tesla's car culture is far different from that of other car companies," Baron wrote. At least, all car companies except for BMW. Baron noted that two of his analysts recently visited BMW in Germany and the BMW financial team believes that a "revolution in the drive train is underway. ... We believe that BMW will likely phase out internal combustion engines over the next 10 years," Baron wrote.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Re electric sources in the US: For 2013, here's where the US's power came from--measured at the wholesale level. Note that behind-the-meter generation (rooftop solar) is not generally included in these data from the Energy Information Administration:

Coal	39.1%
Petroleum	0.7%
Natural Gas	27.4%
Other gases	0.3%
Nuclear	19.4%
Hydro Pumped Storage	-0.1%
Conventional Hydro	6.6%
Wood	1.0%
Waste	0.5%
Geothermal	0.4%
Solar/PV	0.2%
Wind	4.1%

So at the wholesale level, we have 12.9% coming from renewables and 32.3% from zero-carbon sources (including nuclear).

 

[GSP]

Even if they do get bailed out won't the stock hit rock bottom? How low did GMs stock go at the bailout?

GM stock was delisted and became worthless.

The "GM Company" that remains is a new company with completely new owners. The old owners lost everything.

GSP