Base Model S/X battery to be 90 kWh?

[MostlyStock]

I think anyone that ordered after the $2000 Model S60 price increase will get a 90 kWh battery minimum.

My reasoning behind that:

1. A $2000 price increase at a Tesla cost of $150 per kWh is 13.3 kWh increase over the 75 kWh battery for a total of 88.3 kWh. The profit from the base model would be unchanged and this would mean the $2000 price increase is more than drumming up business.

2. Tesla likes to simplifying production and if it only makes battery modules used in the 100 kWh then we get an 87.5 kWh battery (100 kWh / 16 modules * 14 modules). Also everyone knows Tesla likes to round up so 90 kWh.

 

[bob_p]

Seems highly unlikely.

What's more likely is that Tesla needed to increase the price of the entry model 60's because providing those with software-limited 75's was more expensive, plus they are putting the AP 2.0 hardware in every car, even if the owner hasn't purchased EAP/FSD.

When Tesla decided to offer the software limited 75 battery packs in the 60s, it may have been too good of a deal. 60 owners had the option of upgrading to the 75 range through a simple software update. Because the 60 had a 75 battery pack, the 60s had the same performance as the 75s - plus because the battery pack was software limited, owners can actually charge to 100% without any concern - which reduced the effective range difference between the 60 and the 75's (at 90% charge) to only 15 miles of range.

 

[KyleDay]

I highly doubt they'll do this.

My best prediction is to move the 90kwh pack to a 100kwh pack and then only produce two packs for three models (60/75 and 100).

 

[MP3Mike]

2. Tesla likes to simplifying production and if it only makes battery modules used in the 100 kWh then we get an 87.5 kWh battery (100 kWh / 16 modules * 14 modules). Also everyone knows Tesla likes to round up so 90 kWh.

We don't even know if the 100kWh pack uses modules anymore, or if it does how many there are.

But in any case I highly doubt that the 60/75s will get 90kWh packs.

I think the reason they raised the price is that fewer people were opting to upgrade than the expected so they had to raise the price it get their GM where they wanted it.

 

[Troy]

@MostlyStock, it looks like you are not listening to Tesla's quarterly earnings calls. Tesla's automotive profit margin is the most popular topic during earnings calls. We know a lot about this subject. Your idea is completely unrealistic and would be a big step in the wrong direction. It completely contradicts everything Tesla has said they will do.

Tesla said they are aiming to close 2016 at 30% profit margin for the Model S and 25% for the Model X. They are a few percentage points below that. Tesla is now trying very hard to reach these targets. Even 1% improvement is very important and they keep talking about that for minutes. Jason Wheeler from Tesla said that the 60 kWh had an impact on the profit margins. That's why they have increased the price by $2,000. During Q2 2016 earnings call, the low-profit margin of the 60 kWh version was the main discussion topic. I recommend that you listen to the last two earnings calls.

Tesla Q2 2016 Earnings Call.
Tesla Q3 2016 Earnings Call.

 

[whitex]

The price increase is more likely because people are not upgrading at the rate Tesla was hoping. I think part of it is because people don't need it, but another part is that the upgrade is so expensive post delivery - about 9-12 months of payments for most people who might finance the extra $9K in their car payment can't just she'll out $9K at some later time (hence people who buy $600K+ homes around Seattle suffer without air conditioning - if not part of the mortgage they don't have $5K to drop on AC). The price increase accomplishes multiple things for Tesla:
* increases average selling price for a Model S - a metric investor look at
* helps pay for the 75 battery if you don't upgrade
* makes the 60 to 75 upgrade more affordable

Now the question that I have is this. Some people who in the past didn't buy AP and wanted to buy is later, found that they have to pay whatever the current price of AP upgrade was rather than the "post-delivery price" at the time of their delivery. Now that the 60-75 upgrade will be cheaper, does this mean those who got a 60 pre-increase get to enjoy the current price like with AP upgrade, or will Tesla insist on the old upgrade price for items that got cheaper but new price for items that got more expensive?

PS) I'm surprised they didn't make the 60 a 65 for the difference - that would make the upgrade a different item altogether, and still accomplish all the aforementioned goals.

 

[Canuck]

I think anyone that ordered after the $2000 Model S60 price increase will get a 90 kWh battery minimum.

I think someone missed out on the $2,000 savings and now has a case of severe wishful thinking.

 

[brkaus]

Nope. That would mean the range and efficiency of a 60 would go down due to the increased weight.

You think people would want to pay more per mile?

 

[Cloxxki]

Surely it was to get $2000 out of those rushing in to get the last unlimited supercharging from a low margin car. 60's sold now would stand to lose money, having full AP2 hardware AND SuC, makes them Uber destined cars.