Batch Invite Timing

[run-the-joules]

Who else can't focus at work?

it's actually super annoying because logically I do not expect to get my invite for somewhere between 3-8 weeks after the first batches start going out (assuming that current owners and in-store/line-waiters are going to be sucking up the first couple months of builds), but as 3/31 online reserver who only lives an hour or so from the factory (in traffic), I can't discount the possibility that it might be sooner so I still ahve to be "on high alert".

 

[voip-ninja]

Not sure that would be the case (if you're serious), we're seen employee delivery cars in all the colors, and the paint shop is probably not the bottleneck...

You think they are warehousing the cars (in a clean room) before they go to paint? I don't see that as being particularly likely.

Someone was commenting that Tesla could be on track for production and could delivering end of October cars by "already having built them" which prompted my comment about paint color.

 

[Trips]

Who else can't focus at work?

I thought I was the only one with a job. Doesn't everyone on here just spend their days sitting around a pool checking for the latest updates?

 

[run-the-joules]

You think they are warehousing the cars (in a clean room) before they go to paint? I don't see that as being particularly likely.

Not only not likely, not possible with current manufacturing methods. The paint process involves more than just the outside of the car. That's why the unibody/chassis/body in white/whatever is all painted before any other parts are attached.

 

[voip-ninja]

Not only not likely, not possible with current manufacturing methods. The paint process involves more than just the outside of the car. That's why the unibody/chassis/body in white/whatever is all painted before any other parts are attached.

Yes, I'm aware which is why I found the statement odd.

It is possible that Tesla is warehousing cars right now that are not delivered. It is not likely that those cars are for eventual customer orders. It's possible, just not likely that they are building cars in a variety of colors to meet customer orders in 5-8 weeks time.

 

[K-MTG]

I thought I was the only one with a job. Doesn't everyone on here just spend their days sitting around a pool checking for the latest updates?

If I keep this up...thats probably what will happen to me

 

[gregincal]

Yes, I'm aware which is why I found the statement odd.

It is possible that Tesla is warehousing cars right now that are not delivered. It is not likely that those cars are for eventual customer orders. It's possible, just not likely that they are building cars in a variety of colors to meet customer orders in 5-8 weeks time.

Later on in the ramp they could probably just build the cars in a variety of colors (that's what every other car manufacturer does), but I doubt they'd be doing that at this point, because the volume is too low.

 

[Waiting4M3]

You think they are warehousing the cars (in a clean room) before they go to paint? I don't see that as being particularly likely.

Someone was commenting that Tesla could be on track for production and could delivering end of October cars by "already having built them" which prompted my comment about paint color.

I was only referring to your comment that Tesla could be delivery cars of certain colors 1st, and wait on other colors.

I guess it would come down to Tesla saying "you can get your car end of October as long as you are okay with red or black, if you want any other color you have to wait another 3-4 weeks"

I was just pointing out that is unlikely that a certain paint color will be a blocker for Tesla, since Tesla has built M3 of all colors, and AFAIK the paint shop is not the bottleneck. I have no guess as to how Tesla will build the 1st customer cars. It's possible they can build cars on BIW line before customer config, and then when the config comes in, they paint, final assemble, and deliver. This may not take too long.

 

[voip-ninja]

I was only referring to your comment that Tesla could be delivery cars of certain colors 1st, and wait on other colors.



I was just pointing out that is unlikely that a certain paint color will be a blocker for Tesla, since Tesla has built M3 of all colors, and AFAIK the paint shop is not the bottleneck. I have no guess as to how Tesla will build the 1st customer cars. It's possible they can build cars on BIW line before customer config, and then when the config comes in, they paint, final assemble, and deliver. This may not take too long.

Well, only they know how they will do it, but as pointed out, it's not easy to partially assemble the car and then take it to final assembly and paint later. Parts of the car have to be paint matched at initial assembly before the car goes to final paint.

 

[gregincal]

Well, only they know how they will do it, but as pointed out, it's not easy to partially assemble the car and then take it to final assembly and paint later. Parts of the car have to be paint matched at initial assembly before the car goes to final paint.

I don't think anybody is assuming they would do that. I think the assumption is that they would make cars in a variety of colors and match them to the orders (which is what most manufacturers do). I agree that it's unlikely at this point of the ramp, but they could certainly do it.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Well, only they know how they will do it, but as pointed out, it's not easy to partially assemble the car and then take it to final assembly and paint later. Parts of the car have to be paint matched at initial assembly before the car goes to final paint.

I never said that they would have to store partially built cars and paint them later, I don't think that Tesla will do it either.

I do think, however, that Tesla could start building using a certain % mix of colors as soon as configuration page goes live. They can come up with a baseline % for each color based on early employee batch choice, and also online feedback, for example TMC poll. As orders come in, Tesla will just adjust slightly to make the production line match the actual orders. They should be building a few hundred cars a week at that point, they can probably make that tweak easily.

Edit: my opinion is basically the same as @gregincal said above. I'm a little more optimistic that Tesla can build all the colors now, since they have built them in the employee batch, and they are the same colors in MS/X, so I don't see any reason why the colors would be a bottleneck.

 

[voip-ninja]

I never said that they would have to store partially built cars and paint them later, I don't think that Tesla will do it either.

I do think, however, that Tesla could start building using a certain % mix of colors as soon as configuration page goes live. They can come up with a baseline % for each color based on early employee batch choice, and also online feedback, for example TMC poll. As orders come in, Tesla will just adjust slightly to make the production line match the actual orders. They should be building a few hundred cars a week at that point, they can probably make that tweak easily.

Edit: my opinion is basically the same as @gregincal said above. I'm a little more optimistic that Tesla can build all the colors now, since they have built them in the employee batch, and they are the same colors in MS/X, so I don't see any reason why the colors would be a bottleneck.

In current form that is possible, they could let the customer configure the car and then simply select that color from inventory they've already built and change the wheels if necessary to the ones the customer picked.

Obviously that will be more difficult once they allow more configuration options.

It certainly would be a shame if the factory is ready to build cars in volume and is instead sitting idle while they wait to start taking customer orders. Imagine how delighted someone would be if they did the configuration and then found out their car would be delivered just a couple of weeks later, not 4-6 weeks as is normal for S/X.

 

[Waiting4M3]

In current form that is possible, they could let the customer configure the car and then simply select that color from inventory they've already built and change the wheels if necessary to the ones the customer picked.

Obviously that will be more difficult once they allow more configuration options.

It certainly would be a shame if the factory is ready to build cars in volume and is instead sitting idle while they wait to start taking customer orders. Imagine how delighted someone would be if they did the configuration and then found out their car would be delivered just a couple of weeks later, not 4-6 weeks as is normal for S/X.

It may get more difficult, or it may not be too bad if they match the introduction of new options/trim levels with the increase in production volume.

For example a very hypothetical case, now they only build the LR+PUP version, when the production # increases to 4X of the current rate, they can introduce SR and non-PUP version, increasing the model mix also by 4X. So the absolute # of people who will order a black+LR+PUP+18" wheel in a week stays relative the same, and allowing Tesla to build a pipeline of inventory that can be delivered to customers quickly with minor adjustments.

Of course this assumes that Tesla's ramp handles both increased volume and also expanded trims. I'm assuming that this will be the eventual target and Tesla will get there. We'll just have to wait and see how soon.

 

[McManX]

 

[2virgule5]

Yep. Next Monday maybe ;-)

 

[TaoJones]

They still need to send ~100 cars to the various showrooms, so there's that.

Am fine waiting until the end of Q2 for an AWD variant. Should still qualify for the full tax credit with a calendar quarter to spare.

And that's if I don't just revert to another AP1 car (CPO) ordered prior to 1/15/2017.

 

[run-the-joules]

They still need to send ~100 cars to the various showrooms, so there's that.

Personally I think they should prioritize building and selling to the folks who are in "shut up and take my money" mode and willing to buy before they test drive or fondle one in a showroom, but I'm biased.

 

[S3XY]

A lot of us would be happy if the next car went to Garlan.