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Battery cost MY
- Thread starter Physicslawyer
- Start date
Cost per mile is what matters. Put a number on it. One concern is that 50K miles/year is mostly supercharger. Another related concern is whether the range of the car will be adequate after 100K miles.
Rather than worrying about battery cost, perhaps estimate what a four year old Model Y with 200K miles is worth. Then use that number as part of the cost per mile estimate.
Selling the car for a $30K loss @ 200,000 miles is $.15 per mile. Add electricity cost per mile.
Rather than worrying about battery cost, perhaps estimate what a four year old Model Y with 200K miles is worth. Then use that number as part of the cost per mile estimate.
Selling the car for a $30K loss @ 200,000 miles is $.15 per mile. Add electricity cost per mile.
Uncle Paul
Well-Known Member
Question is a bit of a red herring. Battery costs seem to be dropping daily. Tons of $ are going into research to make EV batteries last longer and cost less. What will be the price of a replacement new battery for a current model Y in future years is uncertain, but most likely much less than that cost today.
Most feel they will save enough on gasoline to buy a new battery if the time comes. Battery packs rarely die due to use, but degrade slowly over the years. Owners will most likely only be in the market for a new battery when their range degrades below acceptable...to them.
A high mileage owner with great concerns might just consider upgrading to a newer model when the battery is nearing the end of warranty. Others might just take the "drive it until it dies" and get 500,000 miles out of it.
Focusing on end of life issues is going to be frustrating, because predicting the future costs of a battery pack replacement from the company is uncertain.
Most likely the solution to high mileage drivers who want to get a million miles plus is to purchase a used battery when needed from a crash damaged vehicle.
Most feel they will save enough on gasoline to buy a new battery if the time comes. Battery packs rarely die due to use, but degrade slowly over the years. Owners will most likely only be in the market for a new battery when their range degrades below acceptable...to them.
A high mileage owner with great concerns might just consider upgrading to a newer model when the battery is nearing the end of warranty. Others might just take the "drive it until it dies" and get 500,000 miles out of it.
Focusing on end of life issues is going to be frustrating, because predicting the future costs of a battery pack replacement from the company is uncertain.
Most likely the solution to high mileage drivers who want to get a million miles plus is to purchase a used battery when needed from a crash damaged vehicle.
My thought is that the way EV tech is changing it would be hard to justify doing at battery swap after 5 years or so, 200K+ miles. Just sell it and get the new vehicle that is more efficient and will have those new massive cells. It will have the 300+ mile range, faster recharging, and the vehicle will cost about 85% as much as the current product.
This change has happened to the Model X. We paid close to $90K in 2018 for a X75. Now I can buy a Model X with 33% larger battery, more luxury features (options now standard), a better air suspension system, and higher performance motor for $79K.
This change has happened to the Model X. We paid close to $90K in 2018 for a X75. Now I can buy a Model X with 33% larger battery, more luxury features (options now standard), a better air suspension system, and higher performance motor for $79K.
Give an example of any expensive manufactured product when what you suggest was true.
Cost per kWh will decline on a gentle slope.
It's never been an unlimited warranty in every way. It was (and is?) unlimited mileage.
But none of the warranties apply to a salvage car, with Tesla or any other manufacturer that I'm aware of.
I drive 25k miles per year for my job. We have a vacation home we visit weekly, that's the other 25k miles. I used to work for a NYC law firm, 6 am train to work, home past 10 pm. Now I leave at 5:15 am, home at 5:00-5:30 pm, four hours of that is commuting (same proportional pay, maybe more). It's fair.
We'll always have a Prius. For my commute, after 13 years of a Prius, I need a change. My other cars are all manual sports cars, not ideal for commuting 2.5 hours to go 60 miles. Realistically, I'm looking at something like a Mercedes E400 coupe, so that or a Tesla are far from a Prius.
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Cobe
Member
Hey guys, I just finished an "extremely long" thread (681 posts) discussing battery life/repair/eliminating single bad cells/warranty remanufactured replacements/real battery replacement costs after warranty (with invoices)/etc. There may be a huge elephant in the room that all Tesla owners should consider (and plan for). Lots of unknowns, but some great discussion, support data, vendor videos, and alternatives to replacing entire pac. Interesting that a single cell (one of over 7000) can go bad and if fuze does not break, it can degrade entire pac). Think you might find much here to think about.
However, as you read this, don’t jump to conclusions and avoid any “fear motivation”. Just think about how you might plan for the future. Until the “Tesla silence” on MY battery replacement costs abates, I plan to start a separate savings account for battery replacement after warranty. I have always kept my ICE cars for no less than 12 years and do my own maintenance, but I may consider a new approach by selling our MY while battery warranty still good and buy the next one. My wife loves this car (June 2021) and I plan to buy another MY next summer.
Sorry I am new and do not know how to "link a thread". Here is the thread title. Perhaps one of you can link thread to this discussion. Hope this is helpful.
Service says $22k for new battery on 2012 Model S
However, as you read this, don’t jump to conclusions and avoid any “fear motivation”. Just think about how you might plan for the future. Until the “Tesla silence” on MY battery replacement costs abates, I plan to start a separate savings account for battery replacement after warranty. I have always kept my ICE cars for no less than 12 years and do my own maintenance, but I may consider a new approach by selling our MY while battery warranty still good and buy the next one. My wife loves this car (June 2021) and I plan to buy another MY next summer.
Sorry I am new and do not know how to "link a thread". Here is the thread title. Perhaps one of you can link thread to this discussion. Hope this is helpful.
Service says $22k for new battery on 2012 Model S
Big elephant in the room? By the time our batteries will require replacement (assuming normal wear and tear) this will have been figured out and cost less than today. I'd take that money and invest it. That way by the time your battery needs replacement, you'll have enough to afford a new car. (Note: this should not be construed as financial or investing advice.)
Li-ion and lithium batteries have known to have "dead cells" over time. EVs are supposed to ignore the slight drop in voltage when they die - but the bigger concern is heat generated from these dead cells.
Long-term the big problem is not cost of the replacement packs but availability. In 10 years will Tesla being making 2170 cell-based packs or have switched completely to 4680 cells? Will you be getting salvaged and repaired battery packs for Model Ys in 10+ years?
If you want cheap and reliable then buy the LFP Model 3. LFP batteries are hardy and can survive 3x the number of charge cycles and are CHEAPER to make as they don't rely on expensive Nickel or Cobalt. My guess the Model 3 and battery pack will last 10-15 years without issue.
New Tests Prove: LFP Lithium Batteries Live Longer than NMC - OneCharge
Recent independent degradation tests of commercial lithium batteries prove - LFP chemistry is safer and has a longer life-span than NMC.
www.onecharge.biz
Cobe
Member
Thanks, and at the high level, I am sure you are correct (plus we love our MY). However, our annual mileage will deplete the battery warranty in about 3 1/2 years. Reading past threads demonstrate a variability in battery life for a variety of reasons. I am very comfortable with gracefully losing range over 5/10/15 years and adjusting travel. However, on the flip side, where BMS shuts down a battery and the car is suddenly not drivable, that's where the expense will probably hit.
We plan to keep our MYs for "at least" 10 years/350,000 miles (probably longer). I am expecting to need a new battery "out of warranty" for each. Certainly, we hope the battery reliability improves and replacement costs decrease over time (and should), but with the MY, there is not enough data to look at slope and make any near-term cost predictions (I am still trying to identify today's replacement cost for a MY battery). The reason I suggested it may be the big elephant, I think few MY owners are considering how an out-of-warranty replacement battery cost might impact their total cost of ownership...and plan accordingly.
Since I prefer to manage risk rather than be caught short, sounds like directed saving (definitely in an investment for growth) makes sense. And as you say, can easily be diverted to paying for the next car. Just helps me reduce any stress from a surprise cashflow. Hope all of you are doing well! And thanks....I learn something new every time I read this forum.
We drive 50k miles per year with our Prius Prime. I would be out of warranty in around two years. I'm quite interested to know the replacement cost of the MY battery. Has anyone driven over the warranty for a MY?
Flybuddy
Member
Warranty is 8 years/120,000 miles. MY has only been around for about 18 months. Currently, the replacement battery costs can best be guessed at by looking at older Model S batteries. Although not identical it does show that Tesla isn't much into fixing a pack as opposed to replacing at around 20K. Tesla parts and labor rates are very high. Best hope for longtime owners is that as battery tech improves and cost per unit decreases, we (hopefully) see much cheaper pack replacements several years down the road.
EnrgyNDpndnce
Member
I drive a Model 3 LR with over 129k miles, so this topic interests me. I asked the local Tesla mobile service manager (who is also a Tesla owner and member of the local owners club) what he thought Tesla would charge to replace my pack if it went bad. He said it would just be a guess since no one has needed one, but probably around $15k. He was also quick to point out that these packs are very hearty and likely won’t need replacing for hundreds of thousands of miles. Capacity will degrade over time, but replacement is highly unlikely. He ran a diagnostic on my battery and said it is very healthy, showing no issues whatsoever.
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