What do I
expect?
Underwhelming development, fantastic promises of the future, and lots of hype. Generally. Something available "late next year" that delivers on only half the promise two years late.
What do I
want?
A 100kWh battery in a small hatchback.
---
Ok but more seriously, I'm not expecting any ground-breaking developments. Panasonic already recently gave their 5 year targets
for Tesla batteries of 20% energy density increase and a line of cobalt-free cells (I think these are to be realised in different types of cells, i.e. the 20% more dense is not the same as the cobalt-free). It would be weird for them to publicly state that while Tesla has something huge under its sleeve for battery day.
I expect some more details on the CATL LiFePo batteries, maybe a statement on if those will make it to Model 3s outside of China, and maybe some numbers/stories on what needs these batteries serve in the grand picture of Tesla.
And perhaps an announcement they're killing the single-motor Cybertruck. They quoted it for 250+ mile range. They killed the SR Model Y because it was under 300 miles.
Your estimate is waay off. Tesla designed Model 3 battery packs to allow battery module replacements without replacing the whole battery pack. Source:
Tesla Model 3 battery module replacements to cost $5k to $7k, says Elon Musk
An optimistic projection based on projections of Li-ion battery pricing in the future. I say "optimistic" because this clearly doesn't include labour. The Model 3 pack is
not easy to drop out like the S/X as it wasn't designed for hot-swapping. Additionally, remanufacture of the high voltage pack will not be done at just any service center and likely needs to go to California or something for a multitude of reasons. So in addition to just the raw part replacement cost, you have:
- Many hours of labour to extract the battery
- Labour to prepare the battery for shipping, especially if shipping by air
- The immense cost of shipping a 1000lb battery (for the LR)
- Labour to unseal the pack, swap out the modules, seal the pack again, test, prep for shipping.
- Immense shipping costs, round two
- Many hours of labour to reinstall the battery
Well over $7k, and probably without your vehicle for weeks.