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Battery degradation, replacement cost $22.5k. Roadster owners please speak up.

Discussion in 'Model S: Battery & Charging' started by pguerra, Jun 29, 2012.

  1. pguerra

    pguerra Member

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    Is Trouble on the Way for Elon Musk and Tesla?: Video - Bloomberg

    The above link is a disappointing analysis. I can't believe Elon said he tries NOT to drive the Roadster in order to preserve battery life! I was planning on using the Model S every single day of my life for the next 8 yrs.

    If anyone here is a Roadster owner, can you please share:

    1) The number of miles you have driven in your Roadster
    2) The approximate decrease in driving range (in percent, if possible) due to battery degradation?

    i.e. 50k miles driven, 15% decrease in range.

    I understand that the battery performance of the Model S may not be the same as that of the Roadster, but it's all I have to compare at this time. Thank you.
     
  2. Adm

    Adm Active Member

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    A well known Roadster driver, Hansjörg von Gemmingen has driven his Roadster for more than 160'000 mi in 4 years and is at (iirc) 70%. He has used it and abused it running empty 3 times.

    I assume that the Model S battery will do better because of the experience of Tesla with drivers like Hansjörg and other high mileage Roadster drivers.
     
  3. pguerra

    pguerra Member

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    This is exactly what I was looking for. Thank you. If there are any other Roadster owners who can share their data, please do. Although I admit, after hearing this story of Hansjorg, I now feel pretty good about being a Sig guinea pig.
     
  4. Doug_G

    Doug_G Lead Moderator

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  5. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

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    Official number or SWAG?
     
  6. drbradfo

    drbradfo Member

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    Goldman Sacshs SWAG.
     
  7. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    This is mistaken. It ws not Elon who said this. The talking head said it was "some guy in a parking lot".
     
  8. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

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    @vfx - That was my interpretation too. Notice how he didn't elaborate on the full discussion of that owner (time prioritization). I would bet it has something to do with either (a) thinking of the car as a collectible to resell or (b) preserving the vehicle in case the Model S doesn't deliver the needed profit to keep Tesla afloat.
     
  9. Right_Said_Fred

    Right_Said_Fred Model S - Sig. 283 EU

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    This woman, she's completely clueless, so gullable.

    And this Cory Johnson, what's his agenda? I guess the enemy comes in many disguises.

    What's the purpose of talking about a (presumed) $ 22,500 replacement cost for a battery, when it will take at least five years for anyone to even need a replacement, and many more never. No one knows what they will cost by that time, but they will definitely be a lot cheaper, guaranteed.

    By the way, since when does a $ 75.000 BMW 5 with 100,000 miles sell for $ 40,000?
     
  10. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

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    I was curious so I took a spin through kbb.com, but couldn't find anywhere on the filtered-for vehicles where it listed an estimate of what their retail prices were.

    Nonetheless, when searching for BMW 535i in the $39k-$41k price range, the highest mileage one was 55k.

    If I remove the price filtering, between 80k and 120k miles the highest price was under $28k. So yah, $40k seems a bit high.
     
  11. dadaleus

    dadaleus 4GETOIL P85#S70,FdrX,S85D

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    And independent of the Roadster Owner Study--my anecdotal statement would be that I drive my Roadster 100's of miles a week, and at least twice a week (or sometimes four or six times a week) for uninterrupted 125 mile stretches at ~75-80mph, sometimes in 90+ degree weather. I've gone 30,000 miles now and I've seen virtually no degradation of the battery. The ideal range showing on my daily standard charge (not a range charge) is currently running ~180mi which isn't much off from when I got it. I am switching to the S as my daily driver (more comfortable for long drives and probably safer in an accident) and I fully expect to drive it to well over 100,000 miles, and hopefully even more.
     
  12. Bifff67

    Bifff67 Member

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    Yeah I agree. I only have one year and 7500 miles but I just have to drive it every day. In the beginning it showed 187 miles after a charge and now it says 190 miles, interesting but probably not significant. Today is the 5th year anniversary of the iPhone. I know they think we are on an 8% annual price decline for the battery technology but really, don't bet too much against the picture being quite different 5 years from now. And if it doesn't, 10 years from now, I just very well might spend 22.5K * time cost of money minus 8% annual cost decrease to bring it back to life.
     
  13. dsm363

    dsm363 Roadster + Sig Model S

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    If the car was still in good shape (and a few of the things were able to be upgraded like the data modem to '5G?') in 8 years, I think paying $20,000 for a new big battery might be worth it. You'd likely have much more range and avoid having to get a new car. What ICE can you upgrade that easily and get possibly better performance and fuel economy?
     
  14. SCW-Greg

    SCW-Greg Active Member

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    Richkae has been conducting some real world Roadster battery life analysis, and while not scientific and over a small pool of cars, it appears that for most, battery life in the first two years is almost negligible.

    Further while they peg the current cost of a replacement battery at $22,500, and some assumptions of future prices coming down (Elon has stated industry is showing 8 - 10% / yr)... the big elephant in the room is the cost of gas and engine maintenance on any ICE car. By conservative estimates (think Camry, and $4 gas for 5 years), you'll spend around $15,000. If gas goes up with inflation, and you drive the Beemer their comparing it too, your costs will be rivaling $30k.
     
  15. Citizen-T

    Citizen-T Active Member

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    I like how this guy lifts the $22.5k price tag from that GS report then ignores that they say it should drop by 50% in 5 years, in the same report. Amateurs.
     
  16. SuperCoug

    SuperCoug Model S Res #7734

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    Are we to assume that the $22,500 estimate is for the 85 KWH battery? If so, the sound of a $12,000-$15,000 85 KWH battery 5 or 6 years from now sounds pretty darn good to me (especially since I'm probably going to get a 60 KWH battery initially). I love the idea of being able to get the big battery at some point down the road for less than the upgrade cost would be now.
     
  17. gg_got_a_tesla

    gg_got_a_tesla Model S: VIN P65513, Model 3 Res Holder

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    ^ sound logic, SuperCoug. My wife has talked me into the 60 pack using the same reasoning. Who knows, there could be a 100+ kWh pack ~8 years from now in these price ranges.
     
  18. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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    If you compare the battery/new car cost ratio of the 2001-2003 Prius you get $3,300/$25,000 ($3,300 is the highest price I've seen for a replacement battery) which is 13.2%
    For the Tesla it's 21.6% (assumes $22,500/$104,000). That's less than 10% difference which seems very reasonable to me given the differences between the two car classes. Of course, it will be even better if the Tesla's battery prices drop.
     
  19. Trnsl8r

    Trnsl8r Blue 85kwh since 12/8/12

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    When reading about the "brickergate" debacle, I seem to remember that Roadster owner being quoted $40k for replacing a Roadster battery, but here we are talking about $22.5k?
     
  20. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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    There is thought that there will be a buy back of the old core because it can be used in other applications. A bricked battery won't have a useable core (and the Roadster battery wasn't designed with secondary use in mind).
     

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