Actually, the reality is well known and broadly published in this forum. Unfortunately, the Noise to signal ratio drowns it out. Rated range is the BMS’s estimate of available kWh multiplied by a constant that varies by model and wheel size. So there is no advantage to having available kWh as a gauge vs rated range. Both could be off for the following 4 reasons:My wife's SR+ is a little over six months old and we followed a similar charging regime and she's gone from 250 miles new to 228 now.
I've also read a handful of posts from people here to claim to charge to 90% every time / day and see no reduction in "max range".
It does seem to be a battery lottery or some other factor that we aren't aware of. Really I think there'd be a lot less of these posts from concerned owners if Tesla would just show a "usable Kwh" number. I'm assuming teh car has to know that number if it is using it vs rated miles to get range. Then there would be no speculation about range given outside temperature, use of climate control, hwy vs city, rated vs GOM, etc. Straight up if you showed, say, 51.5kwh when you bought it and now it says 49.3kwh, then you've lost capacity. Simple but I think they don't do that because they want it to be nebulous for marketing purposes.
temperature. Extreme hot or cold will influence the BMS’s estimate
balancing between cells. Not going to explain this here, but if you charge regularly, To 90% your battery will stay balanced. It may balance at lower levels, there’s debate.
calibration off. BMS needs to occasionally experience high/low charge levels in order to accurately estimate. Occasionally run down below 20% and charge to 90.
Degradation.
Sure there are instances of batteries with bad cells. Few. Very few. Much of the variability reported is down to the first 3 factors. Most of the people worrying have no cause to.