Battery Format for Model 3 - 18650 commodity cells or large format batteries

[jbcarioca]

Thus far, the Roadster, Model S and Model X have used commodity 18650 format cells...

Tesla does not use "commodity" cells. Apart from the format there is little resemblance between a Tesla cells and anybody else's. The Roadster did use "commodity" cells but even then Tesla QC, testing and documentation set new standards that nobody else has yet matched. Anyway, tesla is a moving target.

With the exception of BYD the only EV with true proprietary cell/battery/BMS design is Tesla. That will only be true for a short time since equivalents of the Tesla/Panasonic partnership are popping up every few weeks. As it stands only Renault/Nissan, BYD and Tesla are really experienced with their vehicles in the real world. Both Daimler Benz and Toyota have the capacity to do so, and both are about to do so, but not yet. BMW has spent the money on theory but they haven't much real-world experience.

As all this plays out format variations will exist. Those tradeoffs are highly complex.
I did not answer the choices above since neither actually reflect what is happenening or has happened.

 

[JRP3]

I did not answer the choices above since neither actually reflect what is happened or has happened.

Indeed, the poll was flawed from the beginning, especially so since we've known for over 2 years they wouldn't be using 18650 Gigafactory will produce larger cells that the Typ 18650

 

[Red Sage]

Because the manufacturing equipment existed to create battery cells en masse at an 18650 format, Tesla Motors was able to leverage that toward designing their own 'proprietary' battery cell design in higher density levels and higher quantities for less money than others did. The main thing about their battery cells is that the safety fuse circuitry was eliminated on a per battery cell basis in favor of an external battery management system that works at the module and battery pack level to charge and discharge the batteries safely within a properly cooled and heated environment as necessary. Beyond that, specific materials used for anode, cathode, and the chemistry used between them is unique to Tesla. So, no... They aren't off-the-shelf commodity battery cells, but they are able to be prepared and made the same way. That made them a better choice than prismatic or metal hydride battery cells.

 

[butchmank9]

My thoughts on the battery size. Tesla is waiting to put this information out about the battery size and the interior of the Model 3 because this will significant change the world as we know it. If Tesla puts this information out too soon this will cut the sells on the model S. Why is this so?

My thinking is that the size of the battery is super relevant. Knowing the rang on the Model 3, Plus with Tesla using the new battery known as the 2170 battery cell with the new tech. Also take note that when Tesla used the 2170 battery cell in the Power Wall it virtually doubled the size of the Power Wall from 700 kW to 1400 kW, with that said I believe when the new 2170 battery cell comes in play with the Model 3 this info tech will also be close to or even doubling the battery rang on the Model 3.

After this information is put out that's when Tesla will announce that they will be putting the 2170 battery cell into the Model S/X of course before Model 3 comes out and the sells on the Model S/X will sky rocket and the POC will be plentiful. But still keeping Model S/X at a higher rang then the Model 3. I don't know about everyone else thinking but this information makes sense. Give me your thoughts!

 

[jbcarioca]

...

After this information is put out that's when Tesla will announce that they will be putting the 2170 battery cell into the Model S/X of course before Model 3 comes out and the sells on the Model S/X will sky rocket and the POC will be plentiful. But still keeping Model S/X at a higher rang then the Model 3. I don't know about everyone else thinking but this information makes sense. Give me your thoughts!

I do not think it is that simple. However, the combination of new materials, improved anodes, better production technology and, yes, format size increase, provide a series of virtuous effects. Remember, please, that increasing energy density by, say, 50%, will allow vehicle weight reduction of, say, 25%, thus reducing further weight, size and complexity of a wide array of other components including wheels, tires, brakes, fasteners, etc.

Without question range will rise substantially by virtue of weight savings, lower energy loss in connections and BMS, improved regeneration (some supercapicitor use is coming soon) and a host of other things.

Bluntly, it is easier to deploy these advances on new designs than it is to deploy them on old ones, but we certainly will see substantially reengineered X and S soon (in Tesla time).

 

[Saghost]

My thoughts on the battery size. Tesla is waiting to put this information out about the battery size and the interior of the Model 3 because this will significant change the world as we know it. If Tesla puts this information out too soon this will cut the sells on the model S. Why is this so?

My thinking is that the size of the battery is super relevant. Knowing the rang on the Model 3, Plus with Tesla using the new battery known as the 2170 battery cell with the new tech. Also take note that when Tesla used the 2170 battery cell in the Power Wall it virtually doubled the size of the Power Wall from 700 kW to 1400 kW, with that said I believe when the new 2170 battery cell comes in play with the Model 3 this info tech will also be close to or even doubling the battery rang on the Model 3.

After this information is put out that's when Tesla will announce that they will be putting the 2170 battery cell into the Model S/X of course before Model 3 comes out and the sells on the Model S/X will sky rocket and the POC will be plentiful. But still keeping Model S/X at a higher rang then the Model 3. I don't know about everyone else thinking but this information makes sense. Give me your thoughts!

I don't think it'll be quite as large a change as you're thinking, but I generally agree with your logic.

As a result, I don't think reveal 3 is going to talk about batteries our range much at all - I think Tesla is going to keep any more details until later, though we already more or less know the important parts - the base will have at least 215 mile range and around 60kWh (they originally said under 60kWh, but I'm wondering if they won't tweak it a bit to beat the Bolt numbers), and it is highly likely that the upgraded option will be 33% larger, with a ~300 mile range. (Eight modules in the pack shown on screen, filling the whole space.)

They probably won't say any more about batteries until they are ready to ship 2170 S packs - so I'm extracting reveal 3 to be about interior/technology - and if we're really lucky, to show the Y (but I doubt it will appear this soon.)

 

[JRP3]

if we're really lucky, to show the Y (

I don't see any good reason to show the Y before the 3 is even on the road.

 

[Red Sage]

Give me your thoughts!

I think you should ignore the heartfelt pleas for reason and restraint made by members of the League of Lowered Expectations and give in wholly to the notion that the Model ☰ will be friggin' AWESOME.

 

[JRP3]

Of course the Model 3 will be awesome, but it will also be constrained by reality.

 

[Topher]

I don't see any good reason to show the Y before the 3 is even on the road.

I do. If they can get it into production before the pre-orders for the Model 3 are all completed, they can make the people who want a hatchback happier, by allowing them to switch their reservation, shortening up the line for the Model 3, making those people happier.

Thank you kindly.

 

[Red Sage]

I do. If they can get it into production before the pre-orders for the Model 3 are all completed, they can make the people who want a hatchback happier, by allowing them to switch their reservation, shortening up the line for the Model 3, making those people happier.

Hmmm... I hadn't thought of it that way. A very good point. Thanks for the insight!

I figured most people who wanted a hatchback/liftback/crossover/wagon were: 1) already waiting to see if the Model Y would be the SUV that has been rumored; or 2) waiting for the Final Model ☰ Reveal to make their decision one way or the other. But even with that, I'd prefer that Tesla avoid the situation they had with the Model X, which was shown a few months before the Model S was released, then wasn't Delivered to anyone for years thereafter.

Keep in mind, I predicted a long, long, LONG time ago that the Model ☰ might be revealed as two or three configurations from the outset. I was slightly disappointed when the Sedan was the only style on offer at the March 31, 2016 event. But, I understood the need for simplicity at the outset, and knew that Elon had said some years ago his goal is to eventually introduce a new car every year. So, sure... A Wagon, or Crossover, or Coupe, or Convertible may end up being shown in 2017, with expected Deliveries to take place in 2018...

But I would prefer there were a good 50,000 to 100,000 units of Model ☰ Sedan vehicles in the hands of Customers before something else is put on display. Mostly so that the focus by the Press/Media would be on the success of the Model ☰ without distraction. But also so that no one would have to endure 'The WAIT' being multiple years instead of lengthy months, should it turn out the Model ☰ Sedan is RIDICULOUSLY popular beyond belief and wildest expectations.

Once again, the Model S looks as though it will have moved around 60,000+ units during 2016 worldwide. That's effectively FOUR YEARS of its initially projected 15,000 units per year. What would Tesla do if the Model ☰ Sedan alone required 2,000,000 units to be built per year by 2020? It would be a very good problem for Tesla to have, but anyone waiting for a Model Y, or Pickup, or Wagon, or Coupe, or Convertible would have a LONG wait ahead of them while Gigafactory #002, #003, and #004 were being built.

 

[JRP3]

But I would prefer there were a good 50,000 to 100,000 units of Model ☰ Sedan vehicles in the hands of Customers before something else is put on display. Mostly so that the focus by the Press/Media would be on the success of the Model ☰ without distraction. But also so that no one would have to endure 'The WAIT' being multiple years instead of lengthy months, should it turn out the Model ☰ Sedan is RIDICULOUSLY popular beyond belief and wildest expectations.

Exactly. Tesla doesn't need the distraction of the Y. Getting the 3 out and ramping volume production is too important for the company to complicate things with another model.

 

[Topher]

It would be a very good problem for Tesla to have, but anyone waiting for a Model Y, or Pickup, or Wagon, or Coupe, or Convertible would have a LONG wait ahead of them while Gigafactory #002, #003, and #004 were being built.

If Tesla wants to grow up to be a REAL car company, that is precisely what it needs to do. Design new car models even though it is going full out producing its current line. How many new models does GM introduce every year? And they have a full suite of vehicles.

Thank you kindly.

 

[JRP3]

How long has GM been in business? Do you understand the concept of a startup? Part of Tesla's problem has been getting ahead of itself, they have plenty to do with the Model S, Model X, making the Model 3 a success, the Gigafactory, Tesla Energy, Tesla Solar, etc.

 

[Garlan Garner]

The new Tesla cell format is 2170. Wonder when those puppies will be used at least on new powerwall/powerpacks.
Elon Musk on Tesla/Panasonic’s new 2170 battery cell: ‘highest energy density cell in the world…that is also the cheapest’
Does it make sense to go even larger, at least for stationary storage ?

Exactly... Elon already stated the answer to the OP's question.

Why is there any discussion necessary?

 

[bradbrok]

My bets are on 2170. Why else would they be developing a cheaper alternative to 18650?

 

[Red Sage]

If Tesla wants to grow up to be a REAL car company, that is precisely what it needs to do. Design new car models even though it is going full out producing its current line. How many new models does GM introduce every year? And they have a full suite of vehicles.

That's pretty much exactly what Elon Musk said in early 2013. He wants Tesla Motors to be a 'full line' manufacturer. But I think that when he said that, he thought the Model S would be manufactured at a lower rate, and hoped the Model X might match it. Had both been at roughly 15,000 to 20,000 units per year, then the Model ☰ could have come out in 2016 and gradually built to the 500,000 units per annum mark by 2020.

Things have been much accelerated beyond that original projection, and Tesla is very much aware of the angst, anger, and disappointment caused by the delayed launch and slower than hoped for rollout of Model X. But if they can pull off 100,000 to 200,000 units of Model ☰ in 2017, and something like 300,000 to 400,000 of them during 2018, it will be a whole lot easier to move forward with releasing other vehicle configurations. It's just that along the way, Tesla must still tend to feeding the 'Bird in the Hand'. So, if the Model ☰ demand level were grow to match or exceed that of Ford Focus, Volkswagen Golf, or Toyota Corolla worldwide, then priorities will shift to increasing capacity to manage fulfilling that demand. And that must be done with an eye on further expansion for future product lines, instead of presuming a lower capacity need.

Once again, 'everyone' told Elon that he was smoking crack and liking it by suggesting the Model ☰ might be popular enough to match or exceed BMW 3-Series worldwide sales. It now seems very clear that is definitely an attainable goal. And, 'everyone' was saying there was a 'limited market' for an 'expensive electric car' in the Model S. But their presumption that interest in electric cars would be a flash-in-the-pan fad from a 'boutique manufacturer' was disproven over the course of four full calendar years worth of rapidly growing sales. Tesla cannot fall into the trap of being the victim of their own success again, as they did with Model S and Model X. They must be confident of fulfilling continued interest in Model ☰ while being fully prepared for an onslaught of requests for Model Y, instead of being perceived as delaying one to build up the other after taking deposits.

Priorities.

 

[Topher]

That's pretty much exactly what Elon Musk said in early 2013. He wants Tesla Motors to be a 'full line' manufacturer. But I think that when he said that, he thought the Model S would be manufactured at a lower rate, and hoped the Model X might match it.

Well you can have that pessimistic outlook (looking forward from now), but I don't expect it from Elon. He has already said, that the new models are planned for announcement in 2018 (after having seen demand for the model 3), so I will ignore your typical pessimism .

Thank you kindly.

 

[alseTrick]

Tesla is already far along with the Y. Just like they're father along with their semi, van/bus, and pickup than mere words that were once uttered aloud by Elon. Just because you haven't seen it doesn't mean it doesn't already exist in some physical form.

But Tesla isn't going to reveal the Y until after the 3 is already being produced and delivered en masse.

It would be stupid to cannibalize the 3 with the Y before the 3 has even established itself. It would also be stupid to extend themselves to thin. They are reliant on the 3 being profitable, and in large production quantities, in order to fund continued Tesla expansion.

Once Tesla has released all of their models in the next 5-10 years, THEN they can start worrying about completely updating multiple models at once. Because by then each model who already be self supporting its own production via its sales revenue.

They can't start up two new assembly lines at once because they don't have the capital or the employees to do it. If Tesla wants to be a "real" car company then they need to have a successful launch of the 3. Because if that doesn't happen you can kiss your Y goodbye.

 

[Bangor Bob]

Tesla is already far along with the Y. Just like they're father along with their semi, van/bus, and pickup than mere words that were once uttered aloud by Elon. Just because you haven't seen it doesn't mean it doesn't already exist in some physical form.

This. They're not paying Franz and his team to sit around, and that team will likely have limited work onthe 3 past "pencils down" - some corrections and refinements based on supplier or production tooling producer's input, but probably not full-time work for the whole department. And that weird 2-sizes-in-1 clay model was sitting in the design studio months ago, after all.

It would be stupid to cannibalize the 3 with the Y before the 3 has even established itself.

This also. Tesla has never been shy about asking customers to buy the next version right after delivering the previous "next version." If you buy a 3 and then sell it to buy a Y, that would make their finance people very happy.

A smart move from Tesla would be to make the new line flexible enough to handle several variants on the 3's basic platform. Until they tell us about that, we likely won't hear about it unless a supplier's employee breaks confidentiality. But it would be a smart thing for an "alien dreadnought" of a manufacturing facility to be able to do...