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Battery pack costs, cell costs

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http://green.autoblog.com/2010/05/05/report-nissan-leaf-battery-pack-costs-only-6-000-9-000-or/
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If a report in the Times of London is accurate, it would go a long way toward explaining Nissan's claims that the Leaf electric car will be profitable at just $33,000. The report, which focuses mainly on Nissan executive Andy Palmer, states that the 24 kilowatt-hour lithium ion battery pack for the EV costs only £6,000 (about $9,000) to produce. That works out to just $375 per kWh, a figure that no one else in the industry is currently claiming is possible.
 
I am thinking it may be a good idea of Tesla to officially offer a new battery pack for the Tesla Roadster. It seems that the biggest concern for most people is the battery cost. If Tesla were to offer one, ideally with a slightly higher capacity, it would take a lot of unknowns out of the equation. Since it is likely costs have dropped and we know the new Panasonic cells now have 20% more capacity I think they could offer a pack with more capacity. Even if they sold them for $30,000 and boasted a 260 mile range they would show to people that A) costs are dropping since initially they said the cost was $36,000 and B) range will get better.

With this unknown out of the way, it should help Tesla to sell the upcoming Model S.

What do you think?
 
I am thinking it may be a good idea of Tesla to officially offer a new battery pack for the Tesla Roadster. It seems that the biggest concern for most people is the battery cost. If Tesla were to offer one, ideally with a slightly higher capacity, it would take a lot of unknowns out of the equation. Since it is likely costs have dropped and we know the new Panasonic cells now have 20% more capacity I think they could offer a pack with more capacity. Even if they sold them for $30,000 and boasted a 260 mile range they would show to people that A) costs are dropping since initially they said the cost was $36,000 and B) range will get better.

With this unknown out of the way, it should help Tesla to sell the upcoming Model S.

What do you think?

I think they have their hands full with the S right now and need to stay focused, not develop expensive mods for an old model. Not yet at least.

Hi,

I strongly agree that Tesla needs to stay focused. However, some folks have paid in advance for battery pack replacements, so technically Tesla is in the business of furnishing these replacements for these folks as well as for in and out of warranty repairs. The question is does it make sense for Tesla to maintain an inventory of old battery technology, or simply refit a battery pack with current technology? I doubt it would be an expensive modification if the new commodity batteries are the same size as the old. If such new packs are available, is it a major distraction to offer it to other Roadster owners at a reasonable markup?

I doubt such a replacement program would have a measureable benefit to Model S sales, but it would demonstrate Tesla's willingness to maintain good customer service for past models.

Larry
 
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I think it's better for all of us to wait. No one is even near 100K miles and end of warrenties are only breathing down the necks of a few. Let get a year and a hundred or so our of warranty to start asking about battery replacements.
 
I think it's better for all of us to wait. No one is even near 100K miles and end of warrenties are only breathing down the necks of a few. Let get a year and a hundred or so our of warranty to start asking about battery replacements.

When we maintain batteries on NiCad's in aircraft we typically do not replace the entire battery unless there had been a thermal incident or other problem. What typically happens is that individual cells are replaced as they individually do no longer pass a capacity test. To me it would make the most sense to "maintain" these batteries in a similiar manner. With the ability of the car and diagnostic software to determine the cells no longer operating properly why not just replace those only. Plan on pulling the battery every 3 years or so, and replace those cells that are not performing. That way you have a more consistent maintenance cost, and not a large bill when the whole thing needs to be replaced, and a more consistent and stable battery.
 
There is also the threat of the 2.2mah cells being obsolete. That might take a few years, but it will eventually happen and the higher density cells will have to be retrofitted in.
That's an easy problem to solve. They just don't put as many cells in it. That was one of the original plans for the Model S. The 230 mi version was going to have a full battery of the lower density cells or fewer of the high density cells, depending on which was cheaper at the time. The base 160 mi version was going to have a partial load of lower density cells. The 300 mi version was stated to use all high density cells.

I'm hoping you're right, though:smile: and that it will just be impossible to replace my battery with another 53kWh ESS! Something tells me Tesla is not that dumb.
 
When we maintain batteries on NiCad's in aircraft we typically do not replace the entire battery unless there had been a thermal incident or other problem. What typically happens is that individual cells are replaced as they individually do no longer pass a capacity test. To me it would make the most sense to "maintain" these batteries in a similiar manner. With the ability of the car and diagnostic software to determine the cells no longer operating properly why not just replace those only. Plan on pulling the battery every 3 years or so, and replace those cells that are not performing. That way you have a more consistent maintenance cost, and not a large bill when the whole thing needs to be replaced, and a more consistent and stable battery.

Batteries work better when the cells are closely matched for both capacity and internal resistance. Replacing a few here and there might actually make it less consistent and less stable. The other problem, at least with the Roadster, is that it takes about 12 technician hrs of shop time to swap out the ESS. Not something I want to pay for every 3 yrs.
 
I think they have their hands full with the S right now and need to stay focused, not develop expensive mods for an old model. Not yet at least.

I disagree: The Roadster was originally built by a very small team and I see no reason why a seperate side business, almost like a skunk works, couldn't churn out upgrades without tripping up the S development.

For example, we know that the latest cells could give a near 400 mile range. I'm sure there are owners - possibly the same group as the early adopters - that would pay big money say they have that, providing a revenue stream for Tesla while keeping them way out ahead of the pack.
 
Many of us have had sheets replaced and the new batteries have to be balanced to match the others in the pack. Maybe it will be an all-or-nothing choice on going to a 400 mile pack.

Ignoring Roadster battery issues as they begin to "fail" would certainly make Tesla look bad and would certainly give EV haters a field day.
 
I disagree: The Roadster was originally built by a very small team and I see no reason why a seperate side business, almost like a skunk works, couldn't churn out upgrades without tripping up the S development.

For example, we know that the latest cells could give a near 400 mile range. I'm sure there are owners - possibly the same group as the early adopters - that would pay big money say they have that, providing a revenue stream for Tesla while keeping them way out ahead of the pack.

I assume that everyone is currently working as hard as possible on the S roll out. Hiring and training an additional team to upgrade a handful of Roadster packs at this point in time might not be cost effective. It also might not be great press to hear that Roadster owners are replacing entire packs after only a few years. The conclusions drawn might be that the packs are failing quickly, or that purchasers were not satisfied with what they originally bought. I do see it happening at some point but I'd rather see it a year or more down the road.
 
When we maintain batteries on NiCad's in aircraft we typically do not replace the entire battery unless there had been a thermal incident or other problem. What typically happens is that individual cells are replaced as they individually do no longer pass a capacity test. To me it would make the most sense to "maintain" these batteries in a similiar manner. With the ability of the car and diagnostic software to determine the cells no longer operating properly why not just replace those only. Plan on pulling the battery every 3 years or so, and replace those cells that are not performing. That way you have a more consistent maintenance cost, and not a large bill when the whole thing needs to be replaced, and a more consistent and stable battery.
User maintained battery packs would be a great benefit to EV owners. The ability to replace cells or clusters of cells without having to replace the entire pack should be an objective. Of course replacing 8000 batteries cells is not an easy task. This is where larger cell formats may be advantageous. One would purchase the latest and greatest format cell and pop one or more into the pack. Yeah, it sounds far fetched but humans are close to discovering earth like worlds light years away. :eek:
 
That's one benefit of building your own :biggrin: I can indeed pull out any single 100 amp hour cell and replace it fairly easily, one reason most of us DIY types don't use the higher density but more difficult to build with 18650 LiCo cells. However you wouldn't want to stick a single cell with different specs into the pack as it would make management difficult, though not impossible. Actually as long as it had the same voltage range and had larger capacity than the other cells it wouldn't matter too much. It would just have an easier life being shallow cycled compared to the others.
 
The challenge with a Tesla Roadster battery is a DIY cannot fix or upgrade them unless one wants to spend a significant amount of money in a proper spot welder. Assuming you overcome the small issue of extracting the existing 1000lb battery from the underside of the Roadster. My understanding is there are two welds holding each battery so that is 13662 welds. That is well beyond my capability and I assume the majority of DIY. The larger format Prismatic cells are relatively easy to work with but matching the size and capacity of the Roadster capacity again will be impossible. But I would not think it would be difficult for Tesla to offer an upgraded pack as the newer higher capacity cells are the same voltage and size. So they should be able to easily swap them into the existing manufacturing process. Then I would think it would be an easy firmware update to reflect the larger capacity.
 
Battery Prices for Electric Vehicles Fall 14%, BNEF Says

The average price of lithium-ion battery packs for electric vehicles fell 14 percent in the past year as production capacity exceeded demand, Bloomberg New Energy Finance said.

Batteries cost $689 a kilowatt-hour in the first quarter of 2012, compared with $800 a year earlier, the London-based research company said today in a statement.

Prices for batteries have dropped 30 percent since 2009, making electric vehicles less expensive.

Larry
 

You can buy 18650 cells at retail for $300 per kWhr. Wholesale prices for hundreds of thousands of cells at a time can surely beat that by a large margin.
Yes, yes, cells do not make a battery. But again with scale the rest of the battery electronics will be a lot less than $389 per kWhr - making a combined total a lot cheaper than their quoted $689 per kWhr.