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Battery Prices for Electric Vehicles Fall 14%, BNEF Says

Discussion in 'News' started by Fredrik S, Apr 17, 2012.

  1. Fredrik S

    Fredrik S Member

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  2. Norbert

    Norbert TSLA will win

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    More than I thought. Nice.

    Thats also an interesting number. (Apparently in 2.5 years)
     
  3. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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  4. richkae

    richkae VIN587

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    Since the 85kWhr battery is $10000 more than the 60kWhr battery, then the absolute maximum cost for Tesla's batteries is $400 per kWhr.
     
  5. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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  6. Fredrik S

    Fredrik S Member

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    So, either the Bloomberg New Energy Finance are talking out of their hats, or Tesla will not make a profit in the forseable future?
     
  7. VolkerP

    VolkerP EU Model S P-37

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    Plus you can subtract the (yet unknown) cost of the supercharger option that is included with the 85kWh pack. OTOH the 85kWh pack is built with another cell type than the 60kWh pack, making the price difference unsuitable to calculate a raw $/kWh value.

    No, Tesla states they have 25% margin on the base model. It is common in the car industry that options have higher margins but let me go with 25% here. Based on the assumption that the 60kWh pack just contains more of the same cells as the 40kWh pack, gross costs are $10k for 20kWh = $500/kWh. Subtracting the margin gives net cost of $375kWh.
    So, yes, BNEF is way off or they talk about a completely different type of Li-ion cell type.
     
  8. drees

    drees Active Member

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    One has to keep in mind that Tesla isn't using "automotive" grade cells - IE large format prismatic cells, so at this point in the game they are still likely getting better prices on batteries than just about anyone (maybe Nissan can get close since they make their own).
     
  9. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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    I'm pretty sure the cells in the 85kWh pack cost more per kWh (because they are extremely new/cutting edge 3100mah cells) than the cells used in the 40kWh and 60kWh pack (2200mah). Otherwise there is no good reason to use the cells currently in the smaller packs (because that would mean they cost more AND have more weight).

    I'm pretty sure the 25% margin was the estimate for the entire Model S range (riding mainly on options and the higher end models) as discussed it the roadshow. I am fairly certain they don't have a 25% margin on the base model (otherwise they are doing WAY better than a lot of other ICE automakers). Although either way, BNEF's ~$700/kWh is way off Tesla's cost.
     
  10. hcsharp

    hcsharp Active Member

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    Tesla has stated that the cells in the 85 kwh pack are already 1 generation down from the newest cutting edge cells. The cells in the 40 and 60 kwh packs are 3 generations old, and the cells in the Roadster are 4 generations old.


    They are in fact doing WAY better than most ICE mfgrs with their gross margins. 25% is almost unheard of in the automotive industry. The Roadster 2.5 had the highest margin in its last year than any other production automobile, although I can't seem to find the article now where I read that.
     
  11. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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    Technically that is true because 3400mah cells are hitting production this year. But in terms of cells that already in production, 3100mah is already cutting edge.

    I think Porsche makes about 40% gross margins, and that's across their entire range (definitely not the base models). Their line-up averages in the $75k range. Tesla will have to aim for the Model S average price to be in that area to have 25% plus margins.
     
  12. tennis_trs

    tennis_trs 2010 2.0 Roadster Sport

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    Weren't a large percentage of them Sport models? That must have helped their margin immensely.
     
  13. hcsharp

    hcsharp Active Member

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    You may be right but it's not what they were saying last year during the Model S tour.

    Starting in May they wouldn't take any more orders for base models. And most of them were ordered with a lot of options where they have a higher profit margin. 2011 Q2 the average Roadster sold for over $142,000 and that included both base and sport models. Q3 and Q4 were even higher but I can't remember the figures now.
     

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