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Battery Replacement Cost

Discussion in 'Hong Kong' started by gubes, Mar 26, 2014.

  1. gubes

    gubes Member

    Mar 26, 2014
    Hong Kong
    Hi all,

    After the announcement made by the HK Govt that Electric Cars will remain FRT exempt until March 2017, I am now much more seriously considering ordering a Tesla Model S.

    One question I have is on the battery which has an 8 year warranty and is expected to last around 10 years.

    The battery is the most expensive component of the vehicle with some estimates that the 85kwh battery costs around US$20,000.

    Once Tesla builds its Gigafactory in 2020, one would assume that the battery cost should be at least 30% cheaper in around 6 years time and maybe half the cost by the time you have to replace the battery which wouldn't be the end of the world as a major service on a BMW or Benz wouldn't cost much less than US$10,000 after 10 years of running.

    If anyone has information on this, it would greatly be appreciated.

  2. tomas

    tomas Only partially psycho

    Oct 22, 2012
    Retail for 85kw battery now 40k+ but do not know if that's inflated to discourage demand or not. When you are constrained by production, every battery you sell as a part means one less car you can sell. It is bound to come down precipitously, but how much in 10 years is anyone's guess. Also highly likely battery useful for far longer than 10 years.
  3. Lerxt

    Lerxt Active Member

    Feb 21, 2014
    Hong Kong/Australia
    I saw an interview with Elon where he said it has a design life of 16 years. In another video he said to a user that puts on 90,000km a year (!) that his battery would basically be at about 70% of original charge after 6 years. (That is, after 500,000+ km)
  4. PV4EV

    PV4EV Member

    Oct 26, 2011
    Area 51 / UK
    At a press conference last October Elon stated that the pack would be good for around 1,500 charge cycles before a 20% reduction in charge capacity, and this is backed up by numerous peer reviewed papers and direct scientific analysis of current lithium technology.

    If you did manage to drive the car from full to empty (ie 250-275 miles) 1,500 times, or any combination thereof, that would equate to approx 375,000-400,000 miles of use, at which point the pack still has good use.

    That sort of distance would be very hard to do in HK !!

    Besides, the 85kwh pack has an unlimited mileage warranty for 8 years. In 8 yrs time I would have thought this will be extendable, or a replacement pack available of considerably higher capacity, or significantly cheaper for the same capacity.

    Basically, I have zero concerns about this.

    If you're concerned about the cost, then might I suggest you invest $5k into TSLA shares now. I think you'll be laughing all the way to the bank with change to spare if you actually have to buy a new one in 10 yrs time :)

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