Battery size strategy: go bigger, or not?

[tonybelding]

As rumors swirl about a possible Model S refresh (and maybe even X too), I'm pondering whether Tesla will increase battery capacity or not. It seems like there are a couple of possible strategies.

1. Make the batteries bigger. As battery costs are driven down and energy density incrementally increases, it's possible to put in more capacity and increase the range — which is, of course, a key competitive metric and one Tesla are known for staying on top of. Tesla have worked hard on battery cost and supply, and it's an advantage they can use. They've got a Gigafactory and aren't afraid to use it!

2. Keep battery capacity the same, and use their cell improvements to reduce cost and weight of the cars. Tesla also have an efficiency advantage over other car makers, and they have a Supercharger network, and they can maintain their long-range advantage without the need of increased battery capacity. Batteries are still a constraint on production, so this strategy also lets them put more electric cars on the road. That's the mission, after all.

Which approach would you lean toward? What do you think Tesla will do?

 

[Tam]

...Make the batteries bigger...

There has been a demand for longer range. Traditionally, an affordable range is good enough but whenever Tesla offered more expensive longer range, people would snap them up.

If cost is a concern, owners can count on off-the-menu $35,000 Model 3.

 

[Xminus6]

I think Tesla was perfectly happy playing the slow, incremental update game like Intel, waiting for a serious competitor to arrive. It doesn't seem to be the i Pace or the E Etron. But the recent massive drop off in sales might have them re-evaluating that strategy. They need to differentiate the Models S and X more from the 3 and upcoming Y by increasing the perceived luxury and range.

As someone who has bought an S, X and 3, I will say that we would not have bought the S if the 3 was available in 2014. We're not ultra-luxury people, even though we could obviously afford it. The X compared to the Y is a different story because of the extra carrying capacity (in comfort), but even so, I considered placing an order for the Y to replace my X.

The main metric when it comes to EVs right now seems to be range. Even if most people don't need a 400m-range car, hitting that number would clearly put the X and S is a completely different league from the 3 and Y and obviously every other competitor on the horizon for a while. They do also need to upgrade the interior design and materials a bit. I think they need to split the monetary advantage they have from running their own battery supply to increase range and spend more money on the interior, say 70/30 split.

The main objection against EVs from non-EV drivers is the range/charging cycle and the main criticism from people open to EVs is that the cars are not as nice as similarly priced ICE vehicles. I'd address both of those to some degree.

 

[Rich A.]

There's strong evidence that Tesla plans to switch to the newer battery chemistry used in the Model 3 when they refresh the Model S and X. The new batteries do have a higher energy density per kilogram, so Tesla is likely to use that technological advantage to make a longer-range chassis that does not weigh any less, and to also make a medium-range chassis that does weigh less. But why trouble yourself with this? Unless you're an investor attempting to predict the future, my though would be to hang in there and wait for the product announcement. It is 100% guaranteed that there will be a Model S and X refresh at some point in the future; we just don't know when.

 

[Rich A.]

There is also evidence (well, rumors) that Tesla plans to change the electric motor technology used in the model S and X to the newer technology used in the Model 3. As you may know, the Model S and X use a 3-phase induction motor as pioneered by Nikola Tesla, while the Model 3, ironically, uses a more efficient and innovative "Permanent Magnet Switched Reluctance Motor" that is only somewhat related to Tesla's invention, and actually preceded it. The PMSRM motor is said to be around 5% more energy-efficient, while also being lighter and smaller. Wait for that announcement ...

 

[TMThree]

It is 100% guaranteed that there will be a Model S and X refresh at some point in the future; we just don't know when.

Rumor is we hear about it Monday!

 

[tonybelding]

Rumor is we hear about it Monday!

Rumors about a "refresh" have been flying, but I've got a feeling that it may not happen — or at least, not the way other car companies do it. The Model S might be refreshed piecemeal, one upgrade at a time: new battery tech with V3 supercharging, then some time later a new interior with a display more like the Model 3, then some time later new motors, then some time later the "flex circuit" wiring harness technology, then some time later restyle the body, etc. In other words, it could be a series of upgrades over time rather than flipping a switch and suddenly there's an "all new for 2020" Model S. This seems to be more like the way Tesla tend to work.

 

[Rich A.]

Rumors about a "refresh" have been flying, but I've got a feeling that it may not happen — or at least, not the way other car companies do it. The Model S might be refreshed piecemeal, one upgrade at a time: new battery tech with V3 supercharging, then some time later a new interior with a display more like the Model 3, then some time later new motors, then some time later the "flex circuit" wiring harness technology, then some time later restyle the body, etc. In other words, it could be a series of upgrades over time rather than flipping a switch and suddenly there's an "all new for 2020" Model S. This seems to be more like the way Tesla tend to work.

Agreed, although Tesla seems to like throwing a curve ball here and there, and seems to occasionally like a "shock and awe" approach, to please their customers and intimidate the competiton. Plus, the piecemeal (I'll generously call it "just-in-time") approach can eat into one's own sales as some customers hold out for the next improvement that's just around the corner. I have no evidence other than my own hunch, but if I were forced to guess, my guess would be that Tesla will avoid a piecemeal approach on their first significant full refresh of an existing model, delaying the release if necessary to include all the new design features. I'd happy bet that they will roll out the new battery chemistry along with the new motor technology and V3 supercharging, and I also wouldn't be that surprised to see some modest sheet metal modifications in addition to the interior redesign. But like I said, we'll see ...

 

[Skotty]

I'd like to see range of the bigger battery in the 375 to 400 miles ballpark. That's when I will think it's enough.

 

[Rich A.]

I'd like to see range of the bigger battery in the 375 to 400 miles ballpark. That's when I will think it's enough.

No doubt Tesla feels that same way. It is inarguable that battery technology is by far the weakest link in the design of any EV, and is the one single area where vast improvements are still needed. Tesla isn't holding back; they are actually pushing the practical limits. And it's not just an EV issue - the first person that invents a powerful battery that is inexpensive, lightweight, reliable, recharges quickly, and doesn't degrade over time ... will rule the world (think automobiles, aircraft, trains, power grid, computers, implanted medical equipment, and more).

 

[animorph]

Depends on whether Tesla is battery limited or not. If they're short on batteries they'd be better off keeping capacity the same. If they have plenty batteries they can sell more of them in each car. They do seem constrained currently when making the new cells,

 

[Camera-Cruiser]

The problem is that to have an honest 400 mile car, it would have to be rated at 500 based on how they test them now. I want to run 75-85mph in fair weather and get 400 miles range, and 50-65moh in the cold/wind and get in the low 300s.

That would be progress, and what is needed for better EV adoption in northern locales and for people to buy them that can’t charge at home. If you can get an honest 400 miles between charges, then a once a week supercharger visit it tolerable. I can’t imagine owning an EV that loses half its range or more when it gets cold, and then 20 miles a night if you can’t charge at home.

We are spoiled in Southern California.

 

[TMThree]

Rumors about a "refresh" have been flying, but I've got a feeling that it may not happen — or at least, not the way other car companies do it.

Yeah... what works against that rumor is that it would be stupid to do it months in advance before the new model is ready to be sold. It would devastate their ability to sell inventory and vehicles made prior to the new model release. They would have to massively discount.

 

[David99]

More range has little advantage to most people. On average people drive 20-40 miles a day. Even on weekends their driving needs are well within the 300 miles range we have now. Even those that drive a lot more like me. I drive an average of 100-150 miles a day with my old 85 Model S that only charges to 236 miles. I have days where I drive over 400 miles a day and it is no problem because there are plenty of Superchargers and other DC chargers available. Even people that drive very much would not benefit much from a car with a larger range. Sometimes it would be a little more convenient, it would save me a charging stop here and there on long trips. But would I be willing to pay extra for that? The S/X is already pretty expensive.

Range can't be the selling point of the Model S or X in the future. It's just not enough of an advantage.

Looking back, the smaller battery options for the S/X were very successful. The 90 and 100 was out but the 70/75 battery cars were selling really well. People are fine with the range. Battery prices are still an issue today. A Model S/X with a 150 kWh battery would cost significantly more. Those cars already have trouble selling. The Model 3 offers equal range and performance for much less and same quality car and materials overall.

 

[Watts_Up]

Range can't be the selling point of the Model S or X in the future. It's just not enough of an advantage.

When the Roadster will be available, I'm pretty certain that the Model S and X will follow suit:

Tesla Roadster

- The quickest car in the world, with record-setting acceleration, range and performance.

0-60 mph: 1.9 s
Top Speed: +250mph
Range: 620miles​

 

[David99]

The Roadster is a $250,000 car. Apples and Oranges

 

[dhanson865]

Rivian is claiming to be aiming for 400 miles range. I could see Tesla keeping up with the Joneses even if it's just an optional or signature configuration.

Right now it's 335 miles for what used to be called a S100D but is now Model S Long Range.

Maybe 335 is the new short range and there is a new long range with a different pack?

Maybe a new Model S short range has 300+ mile range and a new Model S Long Range has 400+ mile range.

Tons of options for Tesla to spin this however they want.

 

[J X 3]

It's less about range and more about charging rates.

Charging rates scale with battery size so if they are gonna quadruple charging rates in the long term for Model 3 for example, to satisfy 90% of the public and get EV penetration to practically 100% before 2030, a pack 2x the size would help quite a bit.
* Note that there is a big difference between what people need and what people want and EV makers need to deliver on what people want.

Faster charging helps them with charging infrastructure costs too , a single stall can serve more customers.
The warranty for the battery can also be extended, right now it seems the cells are targeted at 1500 cycles so M3 SR should survive 300k miles and LR 500k miles. A pack with a 500 miles range would reach 750k miles lifetime.
And ofc from a competitive point of view , more range and faster charging are a big asset- if they don't do it , others will.
M3 LR offers some 5h of highway driving and can add 3h in 15 mins ,best case. Push that to 7h on a full charge and 4.5h added in 15 mins and they expand the addressable market by quite a bit. Go further and again, more folks will feel comfortable buying an EV.

Cost and weight are gonna be an issue but without some huge breakthrough that enables super fast charging with a 300 mile pack, they need to keep pushing size.

 

[TMThree]

Rivian is claiming to be aiming for 400 miles range. I could see Tesla keeping up with the Joneses even if it's just an optional or signature configuration.

Keep in mind they are charging $69k for the 105kwh battery. To get 400 mile range, you'd need to buy the 180 kwh batt and I haven't seen a price on that.

I bet you will need the 180 kwh to make the truck useful for hauling anything due to increased power usage.

 

[SSedan]

If the 3 style motor is 5% more efficient then just putting that into the 335 mile S will put it over 350miles. Would bet that they have learned some other aero tricks or the like from the 3 as well.

375mile S is not that big a stretch, with current in use stuff.
110kwh battery V3 supercharging and a permanent magnet motor would be a big set of upgrades for road tripping and none of it requires any innovation.