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Battery Size thoughts

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I've been driving EV's since 2011, my first being a conversion I did myself of a 1985 Mazda RX-7 to 100% battery Electric. That car had only a 16 kwh battery and so the range was a maximum of 80 miles under optimum conditions (200 wh/mile). I could drive it like a madman on the worst days and still get 40 miles. I drove it as my daily for 4 years. During that time I was watching the supercharger network build out and when it became adequate for actual cross country travel I bought a CPO Model S so I could get rid of my ICE vehicle that I was only using for road trips. I have put 45000 miles on my S in the last 2 years about half of which were on road trips. I have visited 117 different Supercharger locations so far. I believe I have considerable experience road tripping my Tesla. While I like my Model S it is a larger car than I need. I have a Model 3 on order and I know I want AWD and Air suspension so I have around a year to wait for the car. The options other than the battery pack size are all a personal preference thing. With the larger battery pack being a $9000 upgrade the question is who would really need this?

With the smaller battery pack we have a rated range of 220 miles. Two years ago I would have said that this is not enough to do road trips but with the additional build out of the supercharger network this is no longer true. 220 miles is more than enough to drive coast to coast and there are very few trouble spots even on a cold winter day with a headwind. So you no longer need to worry about that $9000 expense if your anxiety was for road trip range.

If you have a place to charge at home or at work you are pretty much set with the 220 mile battery. You will be charging at home for at least 8 hours per day or at work for about the same. If you only use a level 1 charge rate you will be seeing about 4 miles per hour which is about 32 miles. I charge my S from a 120 volt outlet in the garage although I have considered installing a 14-50 outlet because on really cold days the 120 volt at 12 amps is not enough to preheat the car. My average daily drive is about 20 miles so this works fine for me most days. If your daily drive is more than 32 miles you would want to install a 14-50 outlet in your garage which would give your Model 3 a recharge rate of 30 miles per hour with the small battery or 37 miles per hour with the large battery. Installation of a high power wall charger on a dedicated breaker would allow the large battery equipped vehicle to charge at 44 miles per hour so a full charge in under 8 hours is possible there as well. These full charge times are mostly silly because almost nobody drives enough per day for that to be a problem. And if it is then an EV may not yet be right for you. Refueling at home is one of the things that makes EV's so much better than ICE.

So does anyone need the large battery? Yes, I have come up with two classes of people who do. The first case is someone who does not have a place to charge at home or at work. Assuming you drive the average of 40 miles per day you would be able to go 7.75 days between 100% charges on a battery that can do 310 miles. This means you would need to use a Supercharger only once per week if you have the large battery in your Model 3. If you drive 80 miles per day you are going to have to charge twice per week and unless you have supercharger access at shopping facilities I am guessing this will not work for you long term. You will get annoyed with charging. The other type of person who needs the larger battery is one who drives more than 175 miles per day. With the small battery you would be pushing your range often and risking accelerated battery degradation. If you drive more than about 250 miles per day on a nearly daily basis then a Model 3 is probably not for you.

My recommendation is to save that $9000. $9000 will buy you about 75000 kwh of electricity or around 300000 miles of travel. (based on 12 cents per kilowatt hour and 250 wh/mile)

Hope that helps some of you save a little cash.
 
The 2012 P85 at 90% SOC would barely make it to Barstow on freezing nights from Las Vegas in 2013. We had to slow down to make it with high winds. Now there are many Supercharger locations that give flexibility and choice for all Tesla models.

It has been a pleasure to drive round trip between Anaheim and San Diego without Supercharging, however I am willing to give up an occasional non-stop drive for $9,000 with Model 3. I agree with the OP that it is important to have enough range for the daily drive. If I was working in San Diego 5 days a week, having a 300+ mile range would be worth the extra cost.
 
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There are 4 reasons I will probably get the first production, long range version:
1) Performance: The long range is claimed to be .5 seconds quicker to 60, it’s not a huge deal. Though the added weight will give the base battery a handling bump.
2) Tax savings: If Tesla crosses the threshold in Q2, some will have to choose between a $7,500 tax rebate on the first production vs a $3,750 on the base or even less on future models.
3) Family: My wife and hopefully an infant will use the car as well. I don’t want to be worrying about battery percentage on a freezing Chicago day or short-distance, no charge overnight trip.
4) Impatience: I want my M3 NOW!
 
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It seems that everyone knows the maximum distance they will have to drive anytime. Having driven electric for fifteen years or so, I gotta say, having fifty or a hundred miles more is worth $9000 at times. Sitting by the side of the road for a couple or three hours waiting for the tow truck is ridiculous and expensive. Having to go out of your way to hit one of those "every 200 mile" chargers is a pain. Skipping a charger and thereby not having to sit in the rain or snow for "only 20 minutes or so" is definitely a positive option. Having to slow to 50 mph because your battery won't get you to the next charger makes you look stupid. If I have to drive 200 miles round trip, I need my 250 mile charge or more to account for speed, weather, side trips.

Of course, YMMV (Your mileage may vary). I live 30+ miles from town. I charge at home. I don't plan to change my route to hit a supercharger or L2 slow charger. I can drive to "town", go over to the other "town", make a circle, visit friends, shop, and never think of charging, just like a gas car. It's all about inconvenience. Try to convince your friends that driving an EV is the way to go when you can't get to where you're going.
 
Two years ago I would have said that this is not enough to do road trips but with the additional build out of the supercharger network this is no longer true. 220 miles is more than enough to drive coast to coast and there are very few trouble spots even on a cold winter day with a headwind. So you no longer need to worry about that $9000 expense if your anxiety was for road trip range.

If your idea of a road trip is going long distances on an interstate, fine. If you like driving back highways and exploring, not so much. It's hard enough in any Tesla, but much much easier with a LR.
 
The decision is made simpler if the household plans on retaining an ICE vehicle. The EV can be enjoyed closer to home for the daily/weekly drives that are of a known distance. The ICE vehicle is used when flexibility or longer distances are necessary and/or drive time is critical.

If the Model 3 (or any BEV) is going to be the only vehicle in the household, then the largest battery possible is excellent money spent. In that situation, I would put the money into the largest battery option before Autopilot and autonomy. You can always add Autopilot and autonomy later to a recent Tesla with AP2 capability. A good reason to consider Tesla over other manufacturers.
 
220 miles is more than enough to drive coast to coast and there are very few trouble spots even on a cold winter day with a headwind

One could make the same argument even with a Leaf that its 80 mile range is enough for a coast to coast trip.. just saying. Because one way to road trip is hitting supercharger after supercharger and eating only what is available around that place. Another way to go long distance is to get the freedom to skip SCs and perhaps get to eat anywhere you want, because you save time skipping on Superchargers.

Also if you buy SR, in cold winter days you essentially have the same range of a Leaf in summer. You can't do road trip with SR on cold winter days comfortably. Now, how much you are willing to pay for that comfort depends on the individual.

As for me I am going LR, only because I haven been starved for additional range driving Leaf, all the time glancing at my Gid meter, before I got my S. It is like a boy who grew hungry and always longing for more food.

IMO, you can't have enough range. 400 miles on a cold blustery day I would think is sufficient. Because remember you don't have SpCs in every highway exit.
 
If your idea of a road trip is going long distances on an interstate, fine. If you like driving back highways and exploring, not so much. It's hard enough in any Tesla, but much much easier with a LR.
THIS. It's amazing how much more of the US appears to be accessible on the LR vs SR.

Visual illustration:
1) Went to supercharge.info
2) Under Map Options, turned Range Circles on, unclick "Construction" and "Permit" superchargers
3) On the Range slider, typed in 1/2 of maximum expected SR range (I use 3.7mile/kW * 90% SOC usable of 50kWh / 2 = 88 miles)
4) The circle represents the "out and back" capability from a supercharger (and also where any SC circles touch/intersect, one can successfully hop to the next supercharger)
5) Next on the Range slider, typed in 1/2 of maximum LR range (3.7 mile/kW * 90% of 75kWh /2 = 125 miles)

I know many think my range figures may be low (many here seem to be thinking the 220/310 EPA figure is what they will get at real highway speeds on all types of terrain in all kinds of weather). But using username "outdoors" figures from his real world aero wheeled M3 road trip across the US, with all the variables above and using it like a real car, came out to ~3.7mile/kW, so that's what I use.

Of course slower driving, and filling in gaps with destination/L2/L1 charging is always a possibility to extend range. Except North Dakota :D .
 
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There are 4 reasons I will probably get the first production, long range version:
2) Tax savings: If Tesla crosses the threshold in Q2, some will have to choose between a $7,500 tax rebate on the first production vs a $3,750 on the base or even less on future models.
If Tesla crosses the 200,000 threshold in Q2, then buyers will still be eligible to receive the full tax credit for 3 to 6 months, through Q2 and Q3. If they don't cross the threshold until Q3, then the full tax credit would still be available through the end of the year.

Since Tesla should be coming out with the Model 3 SR in the next couple months, I'm sure plenty of them will qualify for the full $7500 tax credit.
 
If Tesla crosses the 200,000 threshold in Q2, then buyers will still be eligible to receive the full tax credit for 3 to 6 months, through Q2 and Q3. If they don't cross the threshold until Q3, then the full tax credit would still be available through the end of the year.

Since Tesla should be coming out with the Model 3 SR in the next couple months, I'm sure plenty of them will qualify for the full $7500 tax credit.[/QUOTE]

Many will be able to get the full $7,500 tax credit for the M3 SR, but plenty of us will have uncertainty about that.
For example, I made my reservation online day one (3/31/16) and am a non-owner. My estimated delivery dates are Feb-April for LR, “Mid 2018” for SR and Oct-Dec 2018 for Dual Motor. If Tesla were to cross the 200,000k threshold in Q2, I’d have to take delivery by the end of September to get the full $7,500. And “Mid 2018” doesn’t sound like a safe bet for that the way things are going. I suppose I could always hold off on configuring for a few months in hopes that the SR is available in time for me to get it with the full credit. And if that wasn’t looking realistic then pull the trigger on the LR. But...
4) Impatience: I want my M3 NOW!