Battery Supplies and / or Delivery delays

[Bluebay]

So I thought they were holding up sales of vehicles due to either a lot of orders, or stockpiling batteries for China to give them a start with the battery supply chain - and was going to write a post about it - and possible delays due to china gf3 ramping up without sufficient battery supply- when I read the following ...


"Tesla Gigafactory 1 has been supplying battery packs to Gigafactory 3 since the beginning of August. The company has been sending between 400 and 750 battery packs per week depending on what was needed in the Fremont factory at the time. The final shipment for 2019 was sent 2 weeks ago. So, basically 2019 GF3 battery packs were shipped over a period of 12 weeks.

After some fairly simple math, you get a range of 4,800 to 9,000 battery packs that GF3 has in stock at the moment. The median number would be close to ~7,000 battery packs. "

So this sounds logical and explains in part , why car delivery times have been stretched.. now that Gigafactory 3 has a stockpile of batteries, perhaps the rest of delayed deliveries can resume , once those cars are on the boats - perhaps November / December will be a big push to catch up -- sure hope so for those patiently waiting for their orders.

Tesla will be so keen to get the battery supply to China into high gear soon. - or risk the ire of many customers waiting "too long" -

will also be interesting to see how GF 4 , Europe is planned ie.. bring the battery and vehicle manufacture online at the same time would be the goal - whether its in house battery manufacture or 3rd party supply chain -

 

[Sparty93]

You are assuming GF1 is the bottleneck. I thought currently the bottleneck is the capacity of the lines at Fremont, not the battery packs from GF1. They have not reduced weekly output of Model 3s at Fremont.

They are putting all effort into bringing up the 5th line for the Model Y. Also continue to expand the footprint and output of GF1 to accomodate Model Y battery requirements.

No, I think it is just demand is higher than max Fremont output of about 6 - 7k a week. I don’t think the additional supply to GF3 is impacting output of Fremont.

 

[paulp]

You havnt considered powerwall and powerpack products. These orders are said to be very substantial. Tesla were clear that these product suffered at the start of model 3, so maybe they are now just catching up on the stationary product deliveries.

 

[MC3OZ]

Talk is that all battery packs for China have been shipped already.
I'm expecting Q4 production will be a bit higher than Q3, the delay is most Q4 cars are made in Q4, Cars for Australia take a while to get here.
I did think they could have timed a batch of cars to arrive early/mid-November, for November delivery....
GF1 is apparently making progress with battery production, they are supposed to be at max capacity by the end of the year...