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Battery swap - by the numbers

Discussion in 'Charging Standards and Infrastructure' started by callmesam, Feb 10, 2014.

  1. callmesam

    callmesam Member

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    Since the concept of the Model S, pack swap has been an integral part of Tesla's business plan.


    Tesla has demonstrated to the California Air Resources Board, in 2012, a manual five-person, 10 minute pack swap.
    Stanford Seminar - Dave Duff, Telsa Motors - YouTube (Dave Duff @ Stanford)


    In June, 2013, Tesla demonstrated a 90 second unmanned, machine swap.
    Battery Swap | Tesla Motors


    During a town-hall in Amsterdam, Elon Musk announced that a swap test station would be put into service connecting LA and SF in "a few months".
    DN.no Artikkeltopp


    As a technical matter, swap is possible and has been announced.


    ______________


    The business case for Tesla has been contested.


    There are several revenue streams:


    1. Swap revenue: during the June 2013 swap demonstration, the exact cost wasn't revealed but it will be calculated based on the cost of 15 gallons of fuel, locally. $4.00 x 15 = $60.00 in the U.S. and $100 in Europe.
    Tesla Unveils Automated 90-Second Battery Swap, But at What Cost? | Autopia | Wired.com


    2. Pack Upgrade: in the same talk, Tesla stated that a larger battery pack would be available "in around a year". Each variation 40, 60, 85 of MS is $10,000. I'm going to assume the next size up will be available, a 110 for a $10,000 upgrade. Tesla's current customers seem to like range, even where they don't need it. I'm going to assume that the difference in range is the same as when going from a 60 to and 85 and the new range is 325 miles.
    Current cost to upgrade from 60 to 85 is $17,000.
    Life With Tesla Model S: Battery Upgrade From 60 kWh To 85 kWh


    3. Grid Frequency Regulation. The basics are that if you can provide immediate energy during peak usage, you become a small power plant and can sell energy for the very highest price.
    Solar Grid Storage: Finding Value In Grid Frequency Regulation - Forbes


    4. In the alternative, since Tesla is also a consumer of energy, they may turn to simple energy arbitrage. Tesla can buy kW for $0.05 in the evening and sell during the day for prices of $0.36. Even better in EU. And it can make its own power once solar panels are installed.


    80 kWh purchased at night. $4
    80 kWh discharged during the day. $28.80


    Total revenue realized by Tesla is $24.80/day per pack.


    Conservative pack life 2500 cycles until 70% = $62,000 in total revenue per pack in 7 years.
    http://www.embedded-world.eu/fileadmin/user_upload/pdf/batterie2011/Sonnemann_Panasonic.pdf
    (PDF of Panasonic's generic 18650)
    10,000 cycle pack life is within the possible if life cycle is carefully managed. $200,000 over 25 years.
    (See Dave Duff @ Stanford video above)


    5. CARB ZEV Credits. Tesla gets 5-7 credits per car since they are "swap ready". CARB has already considered reducing those credits, so it is in Tesla's interest to continue to be able to accrue and sell to other auto manufacturers that aren't producing enough zero emission vehicles. Each credit is worth ~$3000-4000.


    _____________


    Tesla's Cost Per Pack: $20-35,000.
    Cost for Swap Station: $500,000.
    Tesla Tries Out Battery Swapping - Forbes
    Staff: Supercharging service group can maintain, but swap will be unmanned.
    Space needed? 2-3 parking spaces.
    COST: $50,000,000 for 100 Swap Stations
    _____________


    REVENUE POTENTIAL (annual)


    Swap Revenue:$200,000 (3M kW delivered @average of 50kW/charge = 60,000 visits to date on the Supercharger Network) with 5% of all long-distance trips choosing swap vs Supercharge.
    Exchange Revenue: $15,000,000 first year with 5% current users upgrading packs.
    Energy Sales: $9,000,000 with 10 packs per station and 100 swap stations worldwide.
    Carb Credits: *assume zero


    Total annual revenue of $24,200,000.


    ______________


    All of the above assumes the following timing: swap is in limited release until Model X production. Model X is an even better candidate for swap as the range will be lower for each corresponding kWh of battery. 10% reduction in efficiency has already been announced.


    Tesla might do 10% greater range for the same price as the S, thus netting 265 miles with a 95kWh battery.
    Elon Musk reveals finer details of the electric 2015 Tesla Model X SUV [video] | ecomento.com

    Then offering 70, 95 & 110kWh packs upgrades to current owners. This would encourage current fleet to upgrade without getting buyer's remorse for having been early adopters.


    Potential Bonuses: Faster 0-60, higher top speed, current Model S owners limited to 90kW charging speed ("A" Packs), can now get the latest and greatest 110kWh pack with 135kW Supercharging speed.


    Plus then each Supercharger is ready for the zombie apocalypse.
    Tesla Is Prepared for the Zombie Apocalypse | MIT Technology Review

    I cross-posted this on TM Forum.
    Battery Swap - By the Numbers | Forums | Tesla Motors


    There are some smart people on this forum that may have looked at this. Is this the long game?
     
  2. notailpipe2112

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    I have a 60 and I would pay $10,000 for an upgrade. Count me in.
     
  3. FredTMC

    FredTMC Model S VIN #4925

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    me too. It'll cost me more than $10k for an upgrade since I now have 23k on my existing 60kwh battery and the 85kwh battery that I receive in swapping would likely have far less miles.
     
  4. callmesam

    callmesam Member

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    I'll wait for the 100+kWh battery before I swap permanently.

    Have 13K miles since pickup in August.
     
  5. physicsfita

    physicsfita Member

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    The swapping also has the ability to sell more cars to people who otherwise would have to pass -- you could get a smaller pack for your daily commute, and swap to a larger pack when your road trip calls for it. This also means that Tesla could make more cars with the same number of batteries in the supply chain since buyers wouldn't have to choose their car's battery size based on their worst-case scenario.
     
  6. joefee

    joefee Over 2 Million TMC page views

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    Nice post Callmesam.

    I think the Battery Swap idea will go the way of the 40kWh pack as I correctly predicted in January 2012 ....dead on arrival Tesla is locked into doing the CA Swap station because of green credits but we will not see a large scale swap station network like superchargers. They will deploy the one they built for the video demo somewhere between LA & SF but have not decided how exactly the upgrade costs will be set if you keep the swap battery. It would get some use in CA since a large number of "A packs" live here and many of us want to swap to a higher performance/faster battery (almost 1,500 posts on this thread in 2 months).
     
  7. callmesam

    callmesam Member

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    Even my assumptions show swap revenue is a very small part of overall revenue from having battery packs available for exchange and backup for the grid.
     
  8. apacheguy

    apacheguy Sig 255, VIN 320

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    If a pack swap to a 100+ kWh battery is to work in the current gen Model S, there are a number of additional assumptions that must be made:

    1. Energy density must have increased significantly enough such that Tesla can add additional kW without increasing the weight of the pack. A heavier pack in the car would be problematic for a number of reasons, not the least of which is slower acceleration.

    2. The traction motor must be capable of handling increased current from the pack to increase acceleration. I doubt Tesla will increase the output of my S85 motor beyond what it already is.

    3. There can be no significant difference in the cooling requirements of said pack. Otherwise, Tesla would have to add additional cooling lines and swap out coolant pumps as well.
     
  9. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

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    I disagree.

    1. This is only a requirement if customers aren't willing to accept a (perhaps minor) performance loss with the increased weight.
    2. This is only a requirement if customers aren't willing to accept unchanged performance.
    3. I don't have enough data to have a feel for this one.

    Speaking for my own car, #2 is definitely a non-issue and #1 might be acceptable.
    As for #3, this might be an improvement if it forces Tesla to address the "more than 1 lap" track issue.
     
  10. WarpedOne

    WarpedOne Supreme Premier

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    That 5* safety rating with heavier battery turns into less-then-5-star safety rating. Maybe even only 3.
    Also don't forget about suspension arms strength and damping strength. And don't forget the ride hight.

    It is not coincidence 60 and 85kWh weigh almost the same.
     
  11. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

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    I don't think we know this. It might cause a drop in the rating, it might not. We have explicit evidence that the existing testing apparatus can't even adequately rate the true capabilities of the Model S (examples: crushing machine broken, rollover test required unusual steps). As such, the existing structure of the Model S might achieve similar (or even the same) ratings even with another 500 (or whatever) pounds.
     
  12. Kipernicus

    Kipernicus Model S Res#P1440

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    Article on InsideEVs about ZEV credits says this:

    I guess if they can make swap business case work without ZEV credits it might still happen. Not holding my breath though.
     
  13. apacheguy

    apacheguy Sig 255, VIN 320

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    IIRC, Elon brought up swap stations as recently as last month at some public events. And it's been in the press recently. I'd be surprised if they don't do a demo along the I-5 at the very least.
     

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