Since the concept of the Model S, pack swap has been an integral part of Tesla's business plan. Tesla has demonstrated to the California Air Resources Board, in 2012, a manual five-person, 10 minute pack swap. Stanford Seminar - Dave Duff, Telsa Motors - YouTube (Dave Duff @ Stanford) In June, 2013, Tesla demonstrated a 90 second unmanned, machine swap. Battery Swap | Tesla Motors During a town-hall in Amsterdam, Elon Musk announced that a swap test station would be put into service connecting LA and SF in "a few months". DN.no Artikkeltopp As a technical matter, swap is possible and has been announced. ______________ The business case for Tesla has been contested. There are several revenue streams: 1. Swap revenue: during the June 2013 swap demonstration, the exact cost wasn't revealed but it will be calculated based on the cost of 15 gallons of fuel, locally. $4.00 x 15 = $60.00 in the U.S. and $100 in Europe. Tesla Unveils Automated 90-Second Battery Swap, But at What Cost? | Autopia | Wired.com 2. Pack Upgrade: in the same talk, Tesla stated that a larger battery pack would be available "in around a year". Each variation 40, 60, 85 of MS is $10,000. I'm going to assume the next size up will be available, a 110 for a $10,000 upgrade. Tesla's current customers seem to like range, even where they don't need it. I'm going to assume that the difference in range is the same as when going from a 60 to and 85 and the new range is 325 miles. Current cost to upgrade from 60 to 85 is $17,000. Life With Tesla Model S: Battery Upgrade From 60 kWh To 85 kWh 3. Grid Frequency Regulation. The basics are that if you can provide immediate energy during peak usage, you become a small power plant and can sell energy for the very highest price. Solar Grid Storage: Finding Value In Grid Frequency Regulation - Forbes 4. In the alternative, since Tesla is also a consumer of energy, they may turn to simple energy arbitrage. Tesla can buy kW for $0.05 in the evening and sell during the day for prices of $0.36. Even better in EU. And it can make its own power once solar panels are installed. 80 kWh purchased at night. $4 80 kWh discharged during the day. $28.80 Total revenue realized by Tesla is $24.80/day per pack. Conservative pack life 2500 cycles until 70% = $62,000 in total revenue per pack in 7 years. http://www.embedded-world.eu/fileadmin/user_upload/pdf/batterie2011/Sonnemann_Panasonic.pdf (PDF of Panasonic's generic 18650) 10,000 cycle pack life is within the possible if life cycle is carefully managed. $200,000 over 25 years. (See Dave Duff @ Stanford video above) 5. CARB ZEV Credits. Tesla gets 5-7 credits per car since they are "swap ready". CARB has already considered reducing those credits, so it is in Tesla's interest to continue to be able to accrue and sell to other auto manufacturers that aren't producing enough zero emission vehicles. Each credit is worth ~$3000-4000. _____________ Tesla's Cost Per Pack: $20-35,000. Cost for Swap Station: $500,000. Tesla Tries Out Battery Swapping - Forbes Staff: Supercharging service group can maintain, but swap will be unmanned. Space needed? 2-3 parking spaces. COST: $50,000,000 for 100 Swap Stations _____________ REVENUE POTENTIAL (annual) Swap Revenue:$200,000 (3M kW delivered @average of 50kW/charge = 60,000 visits to date on the Supercharger Network) with 5% of all long-distance trips choosing swap vs Supercharge. Exchange Revenue: $15,000,000 first year with 5% current users upgrading packs. Energy Sales: $9,000,000 with 10 packs per station and 100 swap stations worldwide. Carb Credits: *assume zero Total annual revenue of $24,200,000. ______________ All of the above assumes the following timing: swap is in limited release until Model X production. Model X is an even better candidate for swap as the range will be lower for each corresponding kWh of battery. 10% reduction in efficiency has already been announced. Tesla might do 10% greater range for the same price as the S, thus netting 265 miles with a 95kWh battery. Elon Musk reveals finer details of the electric 2015 Tesla Model X SUV [video] | ecomento.com Then offering 70, 95 & 110kWh packs upgrades to current owners. This would encourage current fleet to upgrade without getting buyer's remorse for having been early adopters. Potential Bonuses: Faster 0-60, higher top speed, current Model S owners limited to 90kW charging speed ("A" Packs), can now get the latest and greatest 110kWh pack with 135kW Supercharging speed. Plus then each Supercharger is ready for the zombie apocalypse. Tesla Is Prepared for the Zombie Apocalypse | MIT Technology Review I cross-posted this on TM Forum. Battery Swap - By the Numbers | Forums | Tesla Motors There are some smart people on this forum that may have looked at this. Is this the long game?