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Battery Swap

brianman

Burrito Founder
Nov 10, 2011
17,526
2,994
My expectation is that all swappers will receive 85 kWh. I'm not sure what they will do with the 60 kWh batteries from people that choose to take them up on the "keep the swapped pack" option.
 

CapitalistOppressor

Active Member
Jun 18, 2012
1,622
0
My expectation is that all swappers will receive 85 kWh. I'm not sure what they will do with the 60 kWh batteries from people that choose to take them up on the "keep the swapped pack" option.

I'd assume they just get stuck in permanent grid storage until Tesla needs a "refurbished" 60kWh pack for a warranty replacement somewhere.
 

stopcrazypp

Well-Known Member
Dec 8, 2007
10,018
4,939
My expectation is that all swappers will receive 85 kWh. I'm not sure what they will do with the 60 kWh batteries from people that choose to take them up on the "keep the swapped pack" option.
That's what I expect too. The swappers will likely only stock the largest capacity available. That would allow them to only have two battery types even considering the Gen III platform.
 

bob_p

Active Member
Apr 5, 2012
3,669
2,791
Has Tesla said they'll support swapping for 40s and 60s?

They've demonstrated the technology - which looks fantastic - now we need the details...

What are the costs? Will owners with smaller batteries be able to swap for larger batteries? Where will the swapping stations be located? What about the battery protection plan? Will it be possible to change from an "owned battery" model to "leasing" the battery? And will they provide a minimum range guarantee for the batteries???

Even though Tesla has sold over 16K Model S - they are still a startup company - and it will take time for them to get everything into place. Until we can see the details, it's impossible to tell how useful battery swapping will be...
 

chicagotsla

Member
Apr 1, 2013
55
0
Chicago, IL
If they give the 85k (which is likely), you must return the battery, or they will charge you the difference.

That being said, as a 40k owner...I will most likely NOT upgrade since the cost of the swap is minor, compared to the $15k or so upgrade fee w/super charging.

I would only take about 2 road trips per yr. anyways.
 
Well, I agree with the assumption that the swapping machine will have all 85 kWh battery packs at the ready.

The question really becomes what will happen with 60 kWh cars that use them. Will they be allowed to access the entire battery? Or will Tesla limit the access to 60 kWh with software the same way they did for those with the "40 kWh" batteries and the actual 60 kWh tray underneath.

It sure would be cool if for rare road trips the 60s could use 85 kWh of electrons and then give it back later when the trip was over, but I wonder if that would have way more people buying 60s instead of 85s with the thinking that when they really needed more they would just temporarily swap it. Would this change Tesla's bottom line profit if so?

Just throwing out thoughts about all the implications here.

Cheers.
 

hans

P631
Sep 27, 2012
1,132
13
Menlo Park
The question really becomes what will happen with 60 kWh cars that use them. Will they be allowed to access the entire battery? Or will Tesla limit the access to 60 kWh with software the same way they did for those with the "40 kWh" batteries and the actual 60 kWh tray underneath.

Why would Tesla limit the use of the full 85kWh pack? It makes no sense. If they came out with 110 kWh packs and stocked the swap stations with these larger batteries would they limit the use to 85 kWh for existing owners? It would remove the incentive to upgrade to the larger pack.

Tesla knows that giving their customers the opportunity to experience something bigger and better drives more upgrade revenue. Just like providing P85 service loaners to people who don't own P85's.
 
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I agree that would make sense. However, they still have this up on the forum at the official website:




WHEN IT COMES TIME TO REPLACE MY BATTERY, CAN I EXCHANGE IT FOR A DIFFERENT SIZE BATTERY PACK?
[email protected] | JANUARY 17, 2013
No, you will not be able to replace your current battery with a different size battery. We recommend configuring your Model S today with the battery that will meet your current, as well as future range needs.


Which seems to call this all into question. If you cant change it later, why sooner? Seems like a mismatched policy.


Cheers
 
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deonb

Active Member
Mar 4, 2013
4,057
4,208
Redmond, WA
I agree that woul make sense. However, they still have this up on the forum at the official website:

WHEN IT COMES TIME TO REPLACE MY BATTERY, CAN I EXCHANGE IT FOR A DIFFERENT SIZE BATTERY PACK?
[email protected] | JANUARY 17, 2013
No, you will not be able to replace your current battery with a different size battery. We recommend configuring your Model S today with the battery that will meet your current, as well as future range needs.

Which seems to call this all into question. If you cant change it later, why sooner? Seems like a mismatched policy.

Cheers

There used to be a FAQ that had wording like:
"Although it may be theoretically possible in the future to replace the battery with a different sized battery, we recommend configuring your Model S today with the battery that will meet your current, as well as future range needs."

Basically the answer is: Don't rely on it to exist, but it might.

What I would love to do is to buy a Model X with a 60 kWh pack, and then occasionally swap my Model S and Model X packs.

However, I'm not sure what a P85 is going to think about a 60kWh pack... On one hand you can't imagine it would work. On the other hand, in 10 years it would have to deal with that question anyway since the 85 would naturally have degraded to a 60. So who knows.
 

markb1

Active Member
Feb 17, 2012
3,038
652
San Diego, CA
I'd assume they just get stuck in permanent grid storage until Tesla needs a "refurbished" 60kWh pack for a warranty replacement somewhere.

Tesla could probably re-manufacture these into 85 kWh packs, too.

- - - Updated - - -

I agree that would make sense. However, they still have this up on the forum at the official website:




WHEN IT COMES TIME TO REPLACE MY BATTERY, CAN I EXCHANGE IT FOR A DIFFERENT SIZE BATTERY PACK?
[email protected] | JANUARY 17, 2013
No, you will not be able to replace your current battery with a different size battery. We recommend configuring your Model S today with the battery that will meet your current, as well as future range needs.


Which seems to call this all into question. If you cant change it later, why sooner? Seems like a mismatched policy.


Cheers

This is just an example of Tesla's inability to communicate a consistent message.
 

markb1

Active Member
Feb 17, 2012
3,038
652
San Diego, CA
I don't think this is due to inability to communicate. This is most likely due to them not having made a decision on the policy yet.

Elon said at the battery swap Q&A that 60s would be able to swap to 85. So that's inconsistent with the message that is still on their website.
 

Calisun

Member
Apr 25, 2013
85
0
Bay Area, CA
Elon also said they are going to trial this on the I5 in CA, so anywhere else in the country the website position is still valid. It might be years before swapping rolls out and even then it might never get to some areas.
 

Palpatine

Banned
Sep 6, 2008
1,354
-1
Seattle
Elon also said they are going to trial this on the I5 in CA, so anywhere else in the country the website position is still valid. It might be years before swapping rolls out and even then it might never get to some areas.

I will be shocked it this ever makes it beyond the couple of trial battery swap stations they do.
Superchargers make way more sense.

It is going to take a certain amount of battery swap volume to justify the battery swap station. Based on the underwhelming response, I just don't see it happening.
I will be interested to see when and where they put the first swap building. It would be interesting to get feedback from owners that typically use that location for the Superchargers. We should get some quick feedback just from observations of owners in that region. Are they Supercharging for free or paying for a battery swap?

My bet is Superchargers will be the overwhelming choice and Tesla cancels future expansion of swapping stations. They might keep a few demo swap stations running and just eat the losses. It makes a good promo that they can do it. Maybe something about the EV market will change in the future. Maybe after a few years of GEN III sales of 200,000 cars per year then enough demand will exist for battery swaps.
 

stopcrazypp

Well-Known Member
Dec 8, 2007
10,018
4,939
It is going to take a certain amount of battery swap volume to justify the battery swap station. Based on the underwhelming response, I just don't see it happening.
The response from owners in this forum was underwhelming (probably because we already expected most of the stuff announced, but this has occurred for multiple announcements). But the response in the mainstream media and general public seems to be quite good.

And we won't know demand until Tesla actually opens a couple. Right now we are just speculating based on comments, that may not necessarily reflect the actual demand.
 

Palpatine

Banned
Sep 6, 2008
1,354
-1
Seattle
The response from owners in this forum was underwhelming (probably because we already expected most of the stuff announced, but this has occurred for multiple announcements). But the response in the mainstream media and general public seems to be quite good.

And we won't know demand until Tesla actually opens a couple. Right now we are just speculating based on comments, that may not necessarily reflect the actual demand.

Exactly, we are just speculating. But I speculate that when new potential EV owners actually start driving their new Model S, Model X or Gen III, they will realize within a few weeks that battery swaps really are not worth it.
It is the sort of thing that only impresses someone that has no experience driving an EV.

The 3 Superchargers near me are going to be 65 miles, 80 miles and 110 miles (roughly). So leaving my house with a full range charge, which I think most people would do for a long trip day, I would arrive with 60% to 75% remaining at any of those Superchargers.
With the spacing of Superchargers, I think that scenario is going to be fairly standard for most owners. What are the odds of someone paying $60 to $80 for a swap when the recharge time is something like 5 - 10 minutes to get back to 85% to 90%?

It is pointless to rehash all of these issues again. Only time will tell if there is any demand for it. But my speculative guess is that this won't have the volume to justify building any more than the test swap stations. Maybe that will change in a few years with several hundred thousand Gen III cars on the road.
 

stopcrazypp

Well-Known Member
Dec 8, 2007
10,018
4,939
The 3 Superchargers near me are going to be 65 miles, 80 miles and 110 miles (roughly). So leaving my house with a full range charge, which I think most people would do for a long trip day, I would arrive with 60% to 75% remaining at any of those Superchargers.
With the spacing of Superchargers, I think that scenario is going to be fairly standard for most owners. What are the odds of someone paying $60 to $80 for a swap when the recharge time is something like 5 - 10 minutes to get back to 85% to 90%?
I don't agree on those points. We on the west coast (esp. California) have a much higher density of superchargers (East coast comes a distant second), but the average spacing for the network is designed for ~100 miles. Outside the west coast, it's going to be even further apart. And the coverage map uses 200 mile circles (so it's possible to have to travel that far for the start/end of a trip).

And the use case is completely wrong. Battery swaps are for long distance travel, not topping off from 65-75% to 85%-90%. That's apples to oranges. The comparison is 20 minutes for roughly 50% of charge (~130 EPA miles) vs 90 seconds for 90%-100% charge (240-265 EPA miles). That difference can allow you to travel at higher speeds between stations or even skip a stop. And for 60kWh owners, it might make certain trips possible that may be impossible (or difficult like having to travel at slow speeds on the truck lane) just on their own pack.
 

ItsNotAboutTheMoney

Well-Known Member
Jul 12, 2012
10,415
7,547
Maine
I don't agree on those points. We on the west coast (esp. California) have a much higher density of superchargers (East coast comes a distant second), but the average spacing for the network is designed for ~100 miles. Outside the west coast, it's going to be even further apart. And the coverage map uses 200 mile circles (so it's possible to have to travel that far for the start/end of a trip).

And the use case is completely wrong. Battery swaps are for long distance travel, not topping off from 65-75% to 85%-90%. That's apples to oranges. The comparison is 20 minutes for roughly 50% of charge (~130 EPA miles) vs 90 seconds for 90%-100% charge (240-265 EPA miles). That difference can allow you to travel at higher speeds between stations or even skip a stop. And for 60kWh owners, it might make certain trips possible that may be impossible (or difficult like having to travel at slow speeds on the truck lane) just on their own pack.

I think that you have to consider Swapping in the context of the Musk optionality doctrine. Ideally you don't use it because you can charge your batteries very rapidly, but if you can't there are volume constraints that will be needed to be resolved and even if it's rapid enough for most cases, as long as swapping is faster there can always be a demand for it.
 
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