battery swapping confirmed - no more "mystery" announcement

[jammerdjc]

Reuters Insider for the recording. You may have to create a free account with your corporate email address to get access.

 

[deonb]

A last comment at the end:


Obviously Better Place failed with that core strategy, why do you think Tesla will succeed?
Elon: It's worth noting that Shai actually got the battery swap idea from a visit to Tesla. Concerned that we're copying Better Place instead of the other way around. Shai was very good at marketing, but not very good at technology. I do think pack swap can work very well if you have the right technology and you have the right mechanical device to do the swapping.


Do you have to get out of your car to swap the battery?
Elon: "Nope. Direct drive through - don't even have to get out of your car."



This isn't word-by-word. I'll relisten and re-post exactly.

 

[bollar]

And the final question is on battery swap:

Battery swap is not very difficult. All you need is a machine to do the swap and an easily accessible battery pack. Basically the Model S is a computer on wheels -- how long would it take to replace the battery pack on a computer? 30 seconds? Now imagine how fast it would be if a machine did it...

And you don't have to get out of your car to do it.

- - - Updated - - -

A last comment at the end:

This isn't word-by-word. I'll relisten and re-post exactly.

I'm about 10 WPM slower with my typing than you are! Sorry to be repetitive...

 

[deonb]

I'm about 10 WPM slower with my typing than you are! Sorry to be repetitive...

Oh, no, redundancy is good . I'm having issues replaying the recording (keeps disconnecting).

Anyway, the fact that it is non-interactive drive-through takes Al-Air in the frunk out of the equation. Sorry guys (I was a fan too).

"under your nose" meant it was always in all Model S's.
"throughout the country" meant it's co-located at all the SuperCharger locations.

 

[RDoc]

One thing about all this I'm not so pleased about is the idea that the swapping will be at the Supercharger stations. IMHO the main problem to be solved is better coverage of the US, not so much decreasing the charging time by 30 minutes. There are huge areas that people want to go to that won't be covered by the current Supercharger network, e.g. many vacation areas such the western National Park system. So, while I like the idea of battery swapping, getting much better coverage I'd think would be a better use of the investment.

 

[deonb]

One thing about all this I'm not so pleased about is the idea that the swapping will be at the Supercharger stations. IMHO the main problem to be solved is better coverage of the US, not so much decreasing the charging time by 30 minutes. There are huge areas that people want to go to that won't be covered by the current Supercharger network, e.g. many vacation areas such the western National Park system. So, while I like the idea of battery swapping, getting much better coverage I'd think would be a better use of the investment.

To create a battery swapper, one must first have a SuperCharger... If one has a SuperCharger, one might as well make such a SuperCharger available to the public.

 

[metafor]

What swapping will allow is better service rate at Supercharger stations. I agree that 30 min isn't a long wait but at places like Harris Range, where there's only 1 Model S Supercharger station, 30 min per car can end up being a very long queue.

As more and more Model S's get on the road, congestion at Supercharger stations will only get worse. And when the Model X or Gen3 car comes out, even worse. So having swappable batteries would seriously decrease congestion time.

I do agree that we need more Supercharger stations across the country (or a DC fast charge adaptor....). I want to do a road trip up the Pacific Coast highway and there's little to no charging stations that way....

 

[bollar]

Oh, no, redundancy is good . I'm having issues replaying the recording (keeps disconnecting).

It's replaying now.

First question is also on battery swap: MS designed from the beginning for fast battery swap. Swap is offered for "optionality." No market research done on this (or anything else Musk has done on Tesla). Why? People don't know what they want.

This is a very interesting interview.

 

[Teriyaki88]

Relax people. The world is not going to end because of this announcement. This doesn't change my opinion of the car/company at all. I still love my car. And if you don't like the battery swap idea, then continue to love your car as-is.

I don't know all the details but I think this battery swap will put some minds at ease, especially those who are worried about battery warranty/battery degradation. If your battery goes bad then swap it out with a new pack. Let Tesla fix the bad battery with minimal disruption to its customers. And keeping it positive, what if 85 kW pack get outdated and new technology comes along, say 100kW or 150kW pack. How cool would it be if I could upgrade my range by upgrading to newest and greatest pack out there (for some cost)?
I think this is great!!

 

[deonb]

First part of transcript:

Q: Why do you need to do this now, what makes you get to this point?
Elon: I was quite insistent on designing in battery pack swap technology for the Model S. We don't have that capability for the Roadster. But it was certainly important to address the long-range question for the Model S. It's important to preserve optionality. In designing the Model S, we made sure that we could do battery pack swap. Rapid battery pack swap. And we mean it. And also to do very high speed charging.


Q: Are we at a point now where it will be very easy for people to do that, because the battery is pretty large, right?
Elon: It is - but it's in the floor pan. But it's capable of being removed and replaced very quickly. And we'll see just how quick that is on Thursday evening.


Q: Can you give us a hint?
Elon: Reallly quick.


Q: Under 2 minutes?
Elon: Could be... Smile. [ok] Umm. It's faster than you could fill a gas tank.


Q: Is there research that may show how many more customer that would attrack to Tesla? Did that come up as sort'a a sticking point for why people weren't buying them?
Elon: Laughs. We haven't done any research on it.


Q: Oh really?
Elon: No. We haven't done any research on any of this actually. I mean apart from reading things - but no sort of research in terms of doing a survey or something.


Q: No market research, you don't go out and ask people, or anything about Tesla cars?
Elon: Zero, if anything. Ever.


Q: Wow. Ok. That seems unusual. And then. I'm so floored I don't even...
Elon: Well the thing is, if you ask people who rides horses what they want, they would say they want a horse that eats less and goes faster. And maybe doesn't poop as much. I don't know. Something like that - I don't know. But they would not have said I want a car. People don't necessarily know what they want.


Q: Is there a plan in place for all the infrastructure that you need? I mean you need a lot of these things to make it useful. Is this something that Tesla is going to Finance?
Elon: So we got these SuperCharging stations. About a dozen of them active around the country, and we're planning on having a couple of hundred - basically to cover the entire country. And you only need a few hundred to cover the entire United States, because if you got a car with a 200 mile range, and you just sort'a do 200 mile circles throughout the country - it actually doesn't take that many. Depending on what the level of demand is for battery pack swap, we will have swap capability at every one of the Tesla Stations - so you'll be able to travel anywhere in the country using battery pack swap. If the demand is there from customers.


Q: And how much is it going to cost?
Elon: Well, I can't let the whole cat out of the bag. [Sure you can]. Is this embargoed? [No]. Ok. I'll talk about the economics of it on Thursday night but we want it to be compelling. I think it will be fairly compelling.


Q: Is that going to be a significant capital investment for Tesla? A material kind of capital investment.
Elon: I think it's going to be - not a huge one. If we were to roll it out across the country, it probably would cost us 50 to 100 million dollars, which is not pocket change, but it's not a giant number.



Q: Just getting back to the battery swapping real quick - obviously Better Place failed with that as the core of their business strategy. Why do you think it would work for Tesla and did you learn anything from that company?
Elon: It's worth noting Shai Agassi actually got the battery pack swap idea from a visit to Tesla about 5 years ago. That was the genesis of Better Place. In fact I'm a little concerned that people will think we're copying Better Place where in fact Better Place they came on a tour and we told them we'll probably do battery pack swap one day, and we describe how we would do it and next thing we know Shai Agasi is creating a company around the idea. Which is fine - I don't mind. In Tesla we're pretty open about stuff. I try to minimize patents actually - I'm not a big fan of proprietory technology. The thing is that Shai was very good at marketing, but not very good at Technology. So he didn't quite get it right on the pack swap thing. And ... then they went bankrupt obviously. I do think pack swap can work pretty well. And I don't think it's a particularly brilliant idea. Because on those computers right there you can swap the battery pack. And our car is like a giant computer on wheels. So as long as you have the right mechanical device to switch out the battery pack and it's in an accessible location, you can obviously do battery pack swap. And you can do it very quickly. I mean - how fast can you swap out the battery pack in that computer? 30 seconds? So if you had a machine do it, how fast can you do it? Real fast.


Q: Do you have to get out of your car to swop the battery?
Elon: Nope


Q: Really?
Elon: Yip


Q: [Something about roller scates]
Elon: Direct drive through - don't even get out of your car.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

@Right_Said_Fred

I also don't like the idea of battery swapping and I would never do it. But I think that Tesla would like to offer this option so that the clients can choose.
Maybe that Tesla think that there is a market for battery swapping.

 

[stopcrazypp]

What swapping will allow is better service rate at Supercharger stations. I agree that 30 min isn't a long wait but at places like Harris Range, where there's only 1 Model S Supercharger station, 30 min per car can end up being a very long queue.

I think that's the strategy too. Basically the current superchargers will not be enough as the Model S fleet grows (not to mention Model X + Gen III + future Roadster). When there's a queue there will be people willing to pay for a swap. It's going to be a balance of the costs of parking space (superchargers need more space for more throughput) vs the cost of swap stations.

And being able to say our EV refuels faster than a gasoline car is a great marketing point. Up to this point, when naysayers say EVs can't refill in 5 minutes there really is no good rebuttal.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

What swapping will allow is better service rate at Supercharger stations. I agree that 30 min isn't a long wait but at places like Harris Range, where there's only 1 Model S Supercharger station, 30 min per car can end up being a very long queue..

Along these lines, 2 related thoughts:

1. Could the extra packs being stored at a Supercharger site be used as a buffer to keep all chargers at Max kW capacity?

2. Packs can act as a power grid smoother when idle. Generate revenue when not in use with vehicle.

 

[RDoc]

To create a battery swapper, one must first have a SuperCharger... If one has a SuperCharger, one might as well make such a SuperCharger available to the public.

Well, not if you can move the batteries.

There's nothing that prevents the batteries from being swapped at one location and charged at another. In fact, for many remote locations, I'd think that might be the best way to do it since the grid infrastructure layout is independent of the highway system's. Gas stations aren't only located next to refineries.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Well, not if you can move the batteries.

I don't think it makes sense to be doing this regularly, although I do expect there will be batteries moved around based on longer term demand (like seasonal changes or holidays).

 

[RDoc]

I don't think it makes sense to be doing this regularly, although I do expect there will be batteries moved around based on longer term demand (like seasonal changes or holidays).

By separating the swapping stations from the charging stations, Tesla could place the swapping stations where people want to go and the charging stations where the power is, for example industrial parks. The current Supercharger map has a lot of areas where it will be extremely inconvenient to drive a Tesla, particularly a 60 KWh model. Visiting the big National Parks in Wyoming and Montana along with the Provincial Parks in Canada West of Calgary is not going to be simple.

Setting up swapping stations that only operated during the summer travel season could make this much better without Tesla having to make the commitment to several more Superchargers that wouldn't be used very much for most of the year. I expect that the swapping station itself will be a much smaller investment than the Superchargers since they don't have to do a major grid connection, wouldn't need a bunch of parking spaces, and wouldn't have to worry about nearby amenities. It wouldn't seem to be a lot more involved than a drive through car wash if the batteries were trucked in as needed.

 

[JRP3]

Obviously Better Place failed with that core strategy, why do you think Tesla will succeed?
Elon: It's worth noting that Shai actually got the battery swap idea from a visit to Tesla. Concerned that we're copying Better Place instead of the other way around. Shai was very good at marketing, but not very good at technology. I do think pack swap can work very well if you have the right technology and you have the right mechanical device to do the swapping.

Big problem with this statement, BP's problem was not the technology, their swap machines worked quickly, less than two minutes. So if Elon is saying that Tesla will get it right because of the swap technology, which is essentially going to be the same as BP, though hopefully a bit cheaper, that's not a great selling point.

 

[wraithnot]

I don't think it makes sense to be doing this regularly, although I do expect there will be batteries moved around based on longer term demand (like seasonal changes or holidays).

It would be awesome if the battery swap station could be built into a flatbed truck. Then if you broder your car, you wouldn't even need a tow truck- just the mobile battery swap truck. Although I'm sure they would charge you several hundred dollars for the privilege of having the battery swap come to you . . .

 

[deonb]

Big problem with this statement, BP's problem was not the technology, their swap machines worked quickly, less than two minutes. So if Elon is saying that Tesla will get it right because of the swap technology, which is essentially going to be the same as BP, though hopefully a bit cheaper, that's not a great selling point.

My thoughts exactly regarding BP's problem not being with their technology.

$50m to $100m overall means $250k to $500k per swapper. It's a bit cheaper than BP, but not by a lot.

BP however had no other use for the batteries being swapped. Tesla does. So maybe the technology part Elon was referring to is the better overall integration in the entire model, and not so much the act of swapping.

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It would be awesome if the battery swap station could be built into a flatbed truck. Then if you broder your car, you wouldn't even need a tow truck- just the mobile battery swap truck. Although I'm sure they would charge you several hundred dollars for the privilege of having the battery swap come to you . . .

So you would need specialized flatbed with a swapper to go and pick up a battery for you (potentially 65 miles away) and bring it to you?

As opposed to just taking any existing flatbed that's already out in the wild to the next charger?

So it's less convenient and more expensive. Not a great combination .

 

[wraithnot]

So you would need specialized flatbed with a swapper to go and pick up a battery for you (potentially 65 miles away) and bring it to you?

As opposed to just taking any existing flatbed that's already out in the wild to the next charger?

So it's less convenient and more expensive. Not a great combination .

I said it would be awesome- not that it would be practical or cost effective ;-)

I'm assuming the default state for the hypothetical swapper truck would be to carry a fully charged 85 kWh battery. While we're at it, lets put a giant alternator on the hypothetical swapper truck that powers a supercharger so it can recharge the dead battery it just pulled off of your car while it goes to the next brodered car (a 500 hp diesel engine would be 373 kW so more than enough to power a 90 kW supercharger). It would be amazingly convenient to the user- pick up the phone and soon you have a full battery. But such a truck would probably be obscenely expensive. And you would have to pay the truck driver to be on call. But I still think it would be awesome