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Battery upgrade after few years

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I don't really see the battery sizes changing in the next few year. What I do see is Tesla using lowering battery prices to improve their margins and to keep the price the same or to drop it slowly, making it even more competitive with ICEs. That also plays into the Gen3 market, a car at a very competitive price with a good battery range.

The market for a $35k car that goes 150+ miles is big. The market for 400 mile batteries on a luxury car is small.
 
^ makes perfect sense. To draw a (maybe weak) analogy, Apple has kept the 16/32 GB capacity on the iPhone and the 16/32/64 GB capacity on the iPad fixed for 2-3 years now while maintaining the same price levels. Pretty sure flash memory has been getting cheaper overall (local maxima notwithstanding) over the past few years so, Apple has definitely been improving its margins over time.
 
I don't really see the battery sizes changing in the next few year. What I do see is Tesla using lowering battery prices to improve their margins and to keep the price the same or to drop it slowly, making it even more competitive with ICEs. That also plays into the Gen3 market, a car at a very competitive price with a good battery range.

The market for a $35k car that goes 150+ miles is big. The market for 400 mile batteries on a luxury car is small.

If tin anodes pan out, we could see huge jump in range (without much increase in cost) in the next few years.
 
^ makes perfect sense. To draw a (maybe weak) analogy, Apple has kept the 16/32 GB capacity on the iPhone and the 16/32/64 GB capacity on the iPad fixed for 2-3 years now while maintaining the same price levels. Pretty sure flash memory has been getting cheaper overall (local maxima notwithstanding) over the past few years so, Apple has definitely been improving its margins over time.

Apple has added other expenses, Retina displays, larger batteries, much faster processors. the overall manufacturing cost of the phone has stayed roughly the same. Apple clears revenue as the phone ages before they release a new product.
 
Tesla Model S has some unique features which may allow it to be a long term car.

The aluminum body may not rust very much if at all. The electric motor may last well over 100,000 miles.
Agreed. Well over 100,000 miles. Nowhere near a million.

My guess the interior will be the most wear prone part of the car. In particular the seats will wear out.
Everything mechanical is subject to wear, in addition to everything that gets handled or sat upon. You can always throw a blanket over a torn seat cover, but wherever there are moving parts is another matter. Toyotas routinely go between one and two hundred thousand miles, but that's because of extraordinary quality control. Tesla is aiming for best possible quality control. Whether or not they achieve it will be seen over the course of the coming years.

My guess the white HOV stickers - if continued will keep the car alive as a HOV lane commuter indefinitely. EVs are unique in this regard.
As EVs reach a critical number, it will no longer be possible or make sense to give them HOV lane access. CA is a tax-hungry state and the politicians may decide to turn HOV lanes into toll lanes.

I read somewhere recently that "most" or "many" Prius owners aren't buying a new one when they're done with them, they're going back to a pure ICE.
I don't doubt that you did read this "somewhere," but I highly doubt the accuracy or even the honesty of that source. Of the Prius owners that I know personally, most have bought their Prius too recently to be even thinking of their next car, one went from a 2006 Prius to a plug-in Prius, one bought a Leaf, sold his gas car, and his wife drives the Prius, and one (me) mostly leaves the Prius in the garage for when it's needed and drives a Tesla. I'm also aware of (but do not know personally) several who left the Prius in favor of the Volt. And lots of early Prius buyers have indeed bought another Prius. I think it's a small minority who have reverted from a Prius to a pure gas car, though there will always be individuals who find that the Prius does not suit them, as it cannot pull a trailer, and is not a high-powered car. Oh, and a lot of people have traded off their Prius for a bigger or more powerful hybrid like the Camry hybrid or Highlander hybrid.

I remember back around 2006 or 8, some guy telling me, with a great deal of confidence, that Prius batteries were failing at such a high rate that people were dumping the car in droves and they were piling up unsold in dealerships. In fact, at the time, there had not been more than one or two Prius traction battery failures not caused by accidents, and there were still waiting lists to buy the car, and I was regularly getting letters from dealerships begging me to sell them mine.

The Prius has its limitations in terms of power and acceleration, though it's perfectly respectable in both, and does just fine as a family car if you don't need to pull a trailer. And I think your source is way off base, and probably just another purveyor of FUD. All the Prius owners I know are extremely happy with their car. And the ONLY thing I dislike about mine is that it burns gasoline. It is, after all, powered exclusively by gasoline. So I guess that when someone trades off their old Prius for a new Prius, you could indeed say they've traded for a "pure gas car."
 
The electric motor should make it to a million miles no problem. There are only two parts in the motor that would ever need service at all, the rotor which spins inside the electric motor and the bearings that support it, and both of these are easy enough to service. You can repack bearings and you can rewind the rotor. Both significantly easier than rebuilding a ICE.

The interiors wearing out will be the thing that takes these cars off the road and in the case of the Roadster it is even inexpensive to even redo the interior (as there is almost none...)
 
There were a lot of Prius purchasers who were only interested in the HOV sticker. No sticker, no Prius.

A number of others are moving to EVs. The Model S is the first practical EV so there there should be quite a few folks that move from the Prius to the Model S. The Prius has helped many get over "battery fear".

It's interesting that the "Toyota recall" happened in the same year that the government took over a major automobile manufacturer.

The PiP addresses many of the shortcomings of the Prius (when used properly) but it can't fix the poor Toyota service model which pretty-much ruins the Prius experience. The big problem with the PiP is that folks think it's an electric car--it isn't. The PiP has extra battery capacity so that you can use it during the times when the gas engine would be horribly inefficient: driveway shuffle, short trips to the store, etc. where the engine is never warmed up and mpg takes a nose dive. Trying to use it like a Volt (e.g. driving it till the batteries are depleted and then switching to gas) is likely to produce sub-par results. The PiP is not really for people who just want to purchase a car and drive it, some technique is required to really make it shine. The same can be said about the regular Prius--it takes practice to make it really work well. Most people aren't interested in practicing.

For me, dumping the ICE (and it's complex maintenance requirements) and not having to go to Toyota for service are the major motivating factors. I think there may be a couple of HOV lanes around here, but I never use them as they are not in the direction that I travel so the HOV sticker--if there is one around here--doesn't enter into it.

And Daniel is right--most Prius owners are happy with their Prius. I'm happy with my two--except when I go for service and have to double-check everything when I get home because I can't trust Toyota service to do it right.
 
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I don't really see the battery sizes changing in the next few year. What I do see is Tesla using lowering battery prices to improve their margins and to keep the price the same or to drop it slowly, making it even more competitive with ICEs. That also plays into the Gen3 market, a car at a very competitive price with a good battery range.

The market for a $35k car that goes 150+ miles is big. The market for 400 mile batteries on a luxury car is small.

The main hold back for the masses on EV *is* range anxiety. The pressure to drop in a 400+ mile range battery pack is huge, given that the current 85kWh pack is showing an official range somewhere around 260 (going off my memory from the new 5 level testing). This part of the paradigm shift isn't yet complete, as is price... IMHO. Both of which I believe Elon holds a different view from efforts that led to the Volt or the Karma.

Elon's own statement suggesting 8 - 10% per year improvement in batt tech suggest a 105 - 110kWh pack in 3 years, or from another angle... reduction in technology pricing would mean that the 40 and 60kWh packs will be significantly cheaper... making pricing and range options within reach of the masses.

No doubt this is the development strategy that Elon saw from the start.
 
The electric motor should make it to a million miles no problem.
The electric motor is the smallest bit of an electric car. I don't know if it will last a million miles, but I expect it to far outlast the rest of the car. It's all the other stuff (an entire car's worth of stuff) that will dictate the end of life for the car.

I agree with pretty much everything Jerry says above, except that I've never had a bad service experience with my Prius. Maybe I'm just lucky that the dealer I bought from, and the one I go to in Spokane, have both been good.
 
The electric motor is the smallest bit of an electric car. I don't know if it will last a million miles, but I expect it to far outlast the rest of the car. It's all the other stuff (an entire car's worth of stuff) that will dictate the end of life for the car.

I agree with pretty much everything Jerry says above, except that I've never had a bad service experience with my Prius. Maybe I'm just lucky that the dealer I bought from, and the one I go to in Spokane, have both been good.
Anedoctally, apparently one of the dealers near Seattle is "maybe we should drive here to get it serviced" better than the dealers in Texas w/r/t servicing.
 
Anedoctally, apparently one of the dealers near Seattle is "maybe we should drive here to get it serviced" better than the dealers in Texas w/r/t servicing.

Based on the comments in the Prius' groups, it's not just Texas. There are a few good dealers, although I haven't personally found even one, but my informal numbers gathered since 2001 indicate that the good dealers don't even add up to 10% of the total. Note that this just isn't a Prius specific problem (although it may concern Prius owners more because there are few alternatives). My co-workers who have other Toyotas aren't happy with the dealers either.
 
A million miles? Cars wear out long before that, even without considering the drive train, which can be replaced in any car. There's bearings and tie rod ends and axles and steering gear and and all kinds of non-drive-train stuff that people are always complaining about to Tom & Ray. Most cars are off the road by 200,000 miles and it's extremely rare for a car to make it to a quarter of a million. I think it's unrealistic to expect a million miles from a Model S, even with battery pack replacements.

And most people buying Teslas today are forward-thinkers and gadget geeks who want the best and the latest, and in 15 years there will be cars with features we have not yet even thought of, and the sort of people who want a Model S today will want the latest and best in 15 years, which if I knew what it was going to be and told you, you'd laugh at me.

Even though I agree completely with the second part of your post, the first part is way off. Even with ICE tech most modern cars last extremely long. I remember years back when they showed the classic Mercedes taxicab examples each year that did well over 500.000 km on a single engine, some achieving 1.5 million km. At that was back in the eighties and nineties, long before modern day rust proofing became standard.
Most current cars should last even longer. A while ago we sold a VW Touran that we had for over ten years and several hundred thousand km and which looked almost pristine. No rust whatsoever, electrics working perfectly. And as for battery, brake discs etc., that is material that is exchanged every few years at regular service checks anyway. Or is that different in the US?
 
Few if any American cars were built with the quality and attention to detail that Mercedes affords its cars. The typical American car develops expensive mechanical problems long before it hits the 200,000 mile mark. Combine that with the penchant for new gadgets and added technology, and you have a disposable culture in the US that drives the difference between our consumers and European consumers.
 
Few if any American cars were built with the quality and attention to detail that Mercedes affords its cars. The typical American car develops expensive mechanical problems long before it hits the 200,000 mile mark. Combine that with the penchant for new gadgets and added technology, and you have a disposable culture in the US that drives the difference between our consumers and European consumers.

Ok, but here we are talking about Tesla, a company that seems to be able to become the first American automaker to truly change that paradigm...